United States (US) Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing on 18-19 June 2023. The visit in question is of great importance as it is the first visit from the USA to China at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs after a five-year hiatus.
As it is known, the relations between the two countries have a tense content. The main reason for this is China’s increasing influence on the global system. Because of its growing economic power, China has reached the level of the world’s second largest economy[1]and therefore its influence in global politics is increasing day by day. This brings Beijing to challenge Washington’s character as the sole global superpower. As a matter of fact, current data indicate that China will overtake the USA in 2032 to become the world’s largest economy.[2]
Moreover, with the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, Beijing is also improving its relations with states in different geographies of the world and increasing its influence in international trade. While doing this, it is making an effort to replace the yuan with the dollar by leading the search for de-dollarization. Undoubtedly, this process also leads to an increase in Beijing’s political influence. As a matter of fact, China’s influence in international politics is not by building blocks; It increases cooperation by creating bridges and develops relations with states based on mutual respect and based on a win-win logic. The fact that China has never occupied any state before and acts with the sensitivity of “not getting involved in internal affairs” in its relations with the actors with which it has relations has a positive effect on the approach of the actors to Beijing.
In addition to all these, China mediated the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Iran and made attempts to reconcile Russia and Ukraine, as if signaling that it was preparing to reach the “state that can build peace” expected from the state that became a hegemonic power in the international system. In addition, it has been seen recently that China has been carrying out a diplomacy aimed at being a peace-making actor on the Palestine-Israel line. Of course, these processes contribute positively to China’s image.
Moreover, the United States is the party that has a deficit in the foreign trade volume in China-US relations. Moreover, there is a serious interdependence in the economic relations of the European countries, which are the main pillars of the hegemony of the USA, with China. In other words, Washington falls short of consolidating its allies against Beijing. This is essentially why the previous US President Donald Trump launched trade wars against China. Because China is the dynamic party in the competition on the Beijing-Washington line.
As might be expected, the Washington administration is uncomfortable with Beijing’s growing influence in international politics. In fact, because of this inconvenience, the USA has gone through a paradigm shift in geopolitical terms. The withdrawal of the Washington administration from countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq include abandoning the “Land Domination Theory”, which envisages dominating Eurasia at some point. In other words, the decision makers sitting in the White House have come to the conclusion that the USA must dominate the “Edge Belt” and the seas in order to sustain the unipolar world. This means a transition from Land Domination Theory to a theoretical framework based on the synthesis of “Sea Domination Theory” and “Edge Belt Theory”.
As a reflection of the situation in question, the USA wants to implement a strategy similar to the strategy it applied against the Soviet Union during the Cold War at the geopolitical level against China. This brings the Washington administration, which withdraws from countries such as Iraq and Afghanistan, to focus on the Asia-Pacific Region. Pacts such as ANZUS, QUAD and AUKUS, which were implemented with the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region under the leadership of the USA, also stem from this. In other words, Washington is in an effort to build an anti-Chinese bloc in the Asia-Pacific.
In addition to all these, the USA also gives signals that it may escalate the Hong Kong Issue, especially the Taiwan Issue, and the Tibet Issue in order to remind China that it has some weaknesses and to convey the message that it will play on its soft stomach when necessary. However, it is not possible to say that the Washington administration has achieved success in this harsh policy against China. Because various actors, especially the allies that the USA thinks it has consolidated in the Asia-Pacific, have a desire to maintain economic relations with China, even if they have some conflicts with China, for example, over the South China Sea. The attitude of Australia is a good example in this regard.
Similarly, the USA, after the Russia-Ukraine War, cannot mobilize Europe, which it managed to consolidate in terms of sanctions targeting the Moscow administration and aid to the Kiev administration, against China. On the contrary, Continental Europe is uncomfortable even with the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine War and thinks differently from the USA on this issue; it even supports China’s mediation initiatives. The Beijing visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 5-7 April 2023 also confirmed this. Moreover, Macron made statements drawing attention to the need to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy following the aforementioned visit.[3]
As it can be understood, although the USA increases the pressure against China and escalates the competition, it is not easy to reach its goal. Moreover, it seems inevitable that a hot conflict in the axis of the Taiwan Strait will cause a “lose-lose” crisis between the two countries. However, states are rational units that put their national interests at the center. For this reason, a search has emerged to soften the relations on the Beijing-Washington line. In fact, this quest came to light in November 2022, when US President Joe Biden met with Xi on the occasion of the G-20 Summit. As a matter of fact, it is very important that Biden told Xi “There will not be a “New Cold War” between China and the USA at the summit in question.[4] It is possible to consider Blinken’s visit to Beijing within the scope of this search. For this reason, Blinken’s visit to China, which was postponed due to the “Spy Balloon Crisis” on February 4, 2023, took place on June 18-19, 2023.
During the visit, Blinken first met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on June 18, 2023. In his statement regarding this meeting, the US Secretary of State stated that the purpose of his visit was to “manage responsibly” the relationship between the two countries and “avoid making wrong calculations”.[5] In response, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Hua Chunying said, “I hope this meeting can help return Sino-US relations to the point that the two presidents agreed on in Bali.” He referred to the meeting between Xi and Biden on the occasion of the G-20 Summit.[6] Qin also said, “No one had any prejudices that we would settle all the difficult issues in one or two meetings.” It is a harbinger of the continuation of the dialogue between the parties.[7] On 19 June 2023, Blinken met with Şi. In his assessment of the meeting, Blinken said, “It was clear that relations were at a point of instability.” “Both sides recognized the need to work to stabilize it,” he said.[8] In response, Xi made the following statement:[9]
“The world generally needs a stable Sino-US relationship, and whether China and the US can get along has an impact on the future and destiny of humanity.”
As it can be understood, the parties avoid that the competition between them turns into a hot conflict. The above words of Xi bring along new discussions about the fate of the systemic structure. Perhaps there may even be a bargain between the parties that includes the sharing of space and sector. The interdependence in economic relations also indicates that this is possible. In fact, during his meeting with Xi, Blinken said, “President Biden asked me to go to Beijing because he believes that the US and China have an obligation and responsibility to manage our relationship.” has declared.[10] However, despite Blinken’s visit to Beijing, Biden’s calling Xi a “dictator” during his speech on June 21, 2023, means that the tension will not end completely and the conflict on various issues will continue.[11] At the same time, the aforementioned words of the US President revealed that the Washington administration will continue its anti-Chinese propaganda under the name of “alliance of democracies”.
As a result, the two countries will continue the dialogue and avoid escalating the crises in order to prevent the conflicts from turning into hot conflicts; however, it can be predicted that the competition on the Beijing-Washington line will continue. In this process, it seems that the USA will try to consolidate its allies through the emphasis on democracy. It can be predicted that China will continue to emphasize its win-win relations and its peace-making role in crisis areas.
[1] Neslihan Topcu, “How Did China Transform into a Big Economy?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/how-did-china-transform-into-a-big-economy/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[2] Frank Tang, “China to Overtake US as World’s Top Economy in 2032 Despite Washington Hostilities, State Think Tank Predicts”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3099951/china-overtake-us-worlds-top-economy-2032-despite-washington, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023)
[3] Doğacan Başaran, “Macron and Leyen’s Visit to Beijing: Europe’s Search for Strategic Autonomy and the Russia-Ukraine War”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/macron-and-leyens-visit-to-beijing-europes-search-for-strategic-autonomy-and-the-russia-ukraine-war/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[4] Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, “ABD-Çin Arasında Yeni Soğuk Savaş’tan Yeni Bir Paylaşıma mı?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/abd-cin-arasinda-yeni-soguk-savastan-yeni-bir-paylasima-mi/, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[5] “ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Blinken Çin’de”, TRT Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/abd-disisleri-bakani-blinken-cinde-775759.html, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[6] “Blinken, Qin Hold ‘Candid’ Talks, US and China Agree to Meet Again”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-set-arrive-beijing-with-hopes-low-any-breakthrough-2023-06-17/, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[7] “Blinken Holds High-Stakes Talks in China Amid Rising Tensions between World’s Two Superpowers”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/17/politics/blinken-beijing-visit-expectations/index.html, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[8] “Blinken Touts ‘Progress’ Made in Highly-Anticipated Beijing Meetings”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/18/china/blinken-china-visit-wang-yi-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[9] Ibid.
[10] “Secretary Antony J. Blinken and People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping Before Their Meeting”, U.S. Depertmant of State, https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-peoples-republic-of-china-president-xi-jinping-before-their-meeting/, (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
[11] “China Lashes Back as Biden Labels Xi A ‘Dictator’”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-calls-chinese-president-xi-dictator-2023-06-21/#:~:text=KENTFIELD%2C%20California%2FBEIJING%2C%20June,both%20sides%20to%20lower%20tensions., (Date of Accession: 21.06.2023).
