Administration changes that occur as a result of social movements, protests and riots are often referred to as “color revolutions”. Change of administration resulting from the popular movement in Sri Lanka can be described as a “coup” with an eye on the effects of foreign actors and global competition. What we observe here is essentially a coup-crisis situation that can lead to geopolitical fractions. It is known that these color revolutions, or coups best said, were seen in Russia’s old sphere of influence in the recent past. Today, it is possible to talk about a chain of “color revolutions-coups” spreading rapidly in the geographies that China’s Belt and Road Initiative addresses, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
In this context, one of the most critical transit routes in the Indo-Pacific is Sri Lanka, which has witnessed the geopolitical power struggle between China, the United States (USA), Britain, India, Russia, Japan and other Western powers. This country acts as a “strategic hub” in the Blue Economy Corridor, which starts from China and extends to the West through the Strait of Malacca. In addition to its geostrategic importance, the political-economic turmoil in the country deepens the global power struggle.
In June 2022, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa officially declared that the national economy had “completely collapsed”, temporarily appointed Ranil Wickremesinghe to replace Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, and expected support from international financial institutions, especially from India and China, to settle their debts. As a result of the mass protests triggered by the economic crisis in the country and the emergence of political corruption, both the head of state and the prime minister announced their resignation.
This crisis, which emerged in Sri Lanka and led to a popular coup, points to developments in Indo-Pacific geopolitics that will create a domino effect, as was recently seen in the examples of Myanmar and Pakistan. In other words, the coup in Sri Lanka may be the precedent of new crises that will emerge in Indo-Pacific geopolitics and trigger many other crises consecutively.
Above all, the coup in Sri Lanka seems to be a reflection of US-China competition.[1]It is possible to say that China has managed to establish economic and political power in Sri Lanka, causing an immense debt burden in the last five years with the Belt and Road Initiative. It is considered that China, which took over the control of the most critical ports of the country, Colombo and Hambontata, for 99 years in return for Sri Lanka’s debt repayment, also developed symbiotic bonds with the Rajapaksa administration through these projects and made Sri Lanka dependent on China. Undoubtedly, China’s debt-trap diplomacy is viewed to be greatly effective in the formation of this dependence. Indeed, according to the Western claim frequently made, China has tried to obtain political gains or economic profit by debiting the Sri Lankan administration. [2]
The main factor that led to protests in Sri Lanka was China’s close relations with the Rajapaksa family. Accordingly, some of the Chinese loans and commissions went to members of the Rajapaksa family. [3]As a result of the mass protests, the pro-Chinese Rajapaksa family was completely overthrown after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and resigned. Therefore, this coup also harmed China’s economic-political interests in Sri Lanka.
On the other hand, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who replaced Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and is known as a person who approves of relations with the US, could not resist the calls for resignation after his house was raided and set on fire during the protests, and stated that he would resign as soon as a temporary government consisting of all parties would be established. Wickremesinghe’s resignation may be in China’s interest. This is because Wickremesinghe had promised to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and other lenders to be able to pay off foreign debt. This was another concern for China. The transparency required by these institutions could also reveal where Chinese loans and commissions had been transferred to. With Wickremesinghe’s resignation, this risk for China will disappear.
The main reason for the coup in Sri Lanka is that the country has become unable to pay its foreign debts, and China has a role to play in this. Therefore, a crisis and competition environment is present in the Indo-Pacific, which is also affected by China’s Belt and Road Initiative. What is worse is that these crises causally spread and trigger one another. Indo-Pacific geopolitics, where China’s economic projects are spreading and economic, security and political crises are seen intensively with the effect of global competition, should be evaluated as a whole. The military coup in Myanmar in 2021, the Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan, the overthrow of the Imran Khan administration in Pakistan with a vote of no confidence, and finally the popular coup in Sri Lanka indicate geopolitical earthquakes that have emerged successively in the region extending from the Indo-Pacific to the West. The bilateral military-security-economic moves of the USA and China play a major role in the disruption of regional security.
The Washington administration, which set out with the slogan “Free and open Indo-Pacific”, acts together with India, Japan, Australia and other allies in order to temper China in the region and to form an axis of opposition. In doing so, it uses the concept of Indo-Pacific excluding China. This is interpreted as the US’ challenge to China in geopolitical terms. On the other hand, the concept of Asia-Pacific still evokes a geopolitical idea with Russia and China in mind. In short, the Indo-Pacific refers to a geopolitical conceptualization rooting from the US-China competition. In this geopolitical competition, which has evolved from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific, it can be said that political-economic-security crises triggered by the external forces are intensively seen along with irregular wars, fourth-generation warfare techniques and hybrid warfare methods. The assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the most recent example of this. Although it is claimed that this assassination was carried out on religious-denominational grounds, the incident might have had political-strategic aims. In other words, there may be extraterritorial actors behind the assassination who want Japan to pursue an active-aggressive foreign policy. Frequent recourse to such unregulated methods that may provoke states and peoples suggests that the power struggle in the Indo-Pacific will escalate further.
Indications that crises and geopolitical earthquakes will increase in the Indo-Pacific are not limited to these. As will be remembered, in June 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a directive allowing “non-war” military operations. [4]This decision has raised concerns that China may carry out an intervention against Taiwan in the future under the name of “special military operation”, just as Russia did against Ukraine. Allegations that China has begun to make military-security moves in its close quarters began to be expressed more strongly after the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021. [5]In foreign policy, China has traditionally adopted the principle of not interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries and respecting their sovereignty. However, it can be said that China seeks to support its recent global political and economic effectiveness obtained through the Belt and Road Initiative and debt trap diplomacy with military actions. In this sense, Beijing’s first staging ground may be its immediate vicinity, the Indo-Pacific geography.
[1] “Will China Subdue the United States without a Fight to Dominate the Indian Ocean?”, Harvard Univ., https://hir.harvard.edu/president-xis-art-of-war-in-sri-lanka/, (Date of Accession: 15.07.2022).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] “Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Signs New Rules Governing ‘Non-War’ Military Operations”, RFA, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/military-rules-06132022153121.html, (Date of Accession: 15.07.2022).
[5] “According to Experts, US-China Competition Triggered the Coup in Myanmar”, AA, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/uzmanlara-gore-abd-cin-rekabeti-myanmarda-darbeyi-tetikledi-/2130854, (Date of Accession: 15.07.2022).
[6] “Afghanistan: The Next Frontier for China’s Private-Security Companies?”, IISS, https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/10/afghanistan-the-next-frontier-for-chinas-private-security-companies, (Date of Accession: 15.07.2022).
[7] “India Keeps Close Watch as Wang Yi Visits Myanmar”, Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-keeps-close-watch-as-wang-yi-visits-myanmar/articleshow/92624044.cms, (Date of Accession: 15.07.2022).
