With the shift of global competition to Far Eastern countries, Sri Lanka has begun to become the scene of a power struggle due to its strategic location. This competition is most intensely experienced between India and China. Located at the intersection of sea trade routes from Far Eastern countries to Europe, Sri Lanka’s strategic importance is increasing.
The Sri Lankan administration is also making great efforts to stay out of this global competition. As a reminder, Sri Lanka announced at the beginning of 2024 that it would not allow Chinese research vessels to dock at its ports or operate in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). When we look back to the past, for example, after the Chinese military research vessel “Yuan Wang 5” visited Sri Lanka in 2022, India-China relations began to deteriorate. New Delhi even accused Beijing of “militarizing the Taiwan Strait.” The most important reason for this was that India had criticized the arrival of the Chinese research vessel in Sri Lanka as a direct threat to its national security.
New Delhi pressured Sri Lanka to prevent this visit, which it stated “threatened its national interests in the southern seas,” but it still could not prevent it. The Chinese ship that visited Sri Lanka at that time was equipped with large radar systems for space research. India claimed that this technology of China “may have the capacity to monitor its military bases.” China emphasized that this ship was conducting scientific research. In short, India suspected that the Chinese ship was monitoring its own military bases.
Feeling surrounded in the Indian Ocean, New Delhi felt the need to take precautions against China in the Indo-Pacific. This situation was an indication that the India-China rivalry had begun to spread from land to the seas. The increasing tension over Sri Lanka is based on the rivalry between India and China. Due to the ongoing tension in the disputed Kashmir region, there is a risk that this rivalry will spread to other sectors and regions.
New Delhi has many reasons to reduce its critical rhetoric and ease tensions. The most important of these is the border disputes it has with China. In short, there is a lack of trust between the two countries regarding territorial integrity and respect for sovereignty.
From China’s perspective, India is the party that needs to “correct itself” in bilateral relations. On the other hand, India claims that China is acting aggressively on the border. As a result, there is a trust problem between the two countries arising from the border issue. India generally approaches China in a reactive manner. New Delhi does not cooperate with Beijing in Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific. For example, the two countries have developed rival projects in the maritime economic corridors extending from the Indian Ocean to the West. While China has put forward the Blue Economy Corridor, which forms the maritime leg of the Belt and Road Project, India has focused on developing the IMEC project together with the West.
Sri Lanka, a strategic stop-and-supply point, is at the center of the economic competition at sea. As the political and economic competition in this country gradually turns into military dimensions, India has started to openly confront China at sea.
India does not want to provoke Beijing by carrying out military activities in regions close to China. In general, India is careful to take part only in exercises in the near seas, namely in the Indian Ocean, and in maneuvers in the far seas, in the Pacific or Oceania. In addition, China does not want to invite India to its near seas. On the other hand, China can send a research ship to India’s near seas. This may cause China to carry its tensions with India to the Indo-Pacific. From this point on, if India starts to be involved more in issues in China’s near seas, for example, if it starts to operate in and around the Taiwan Strait, there is a high probability that the conflict between the two countries on the border will be carried to the seas.
It is quite natural for Sri Lanka to initially have reservations about the arrival of the Chinese research ship. Because India’s pressure on Sri Lanka continues. Sri Lanka’s stance against China, under the influence of India, could further escalate regional tensions. This could also be an indication that the West is beginning to take control of Sri Lanka. China, which is seriously disturbed by the West’s increasing influence in the Indo-Pacific, is expected to strengthen its connections with neighboring states in the near future. It can be said that India will compete more with China in the seas in response to this.
