Following the confrontation between the Philippines and Chinese coast guard ships in the South China Sea on August 5, 2023, some Western countries made statements supporting Manila and criticizing Beijing.[1] However, it was noteworthy that Southeast Asian countries remained neutral on this issue. However, countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei also have conflicts with China on the same seas. It seems that the regional states are careful to remain neutral in the competition between the United States of America (USA) and China.
Surveys conducted by some public opinion research companies have also revealed that Southeast Asian countries prefer to remain neutral in this competition, and even some states have a positive attitude towards China.[2] For example, Pew Research Center conducted a survey on the US-China rivalry with the participation of 25,000 people from 19 different countries. While countries such as South Korea, Japan, France and Australia, which are generally seen in the camp of the West, have positive views of the USA in the survey; It was stated that Singapore and Malaysia, two Southeast Asian countries, viewed China positively.
Singapore is currently one of the Southeast Asian countries that has benefited most from China’s economic projects. Because the most strategic of the main logistics supply points in China’s Blue Economy Corridor are Singapore Port and Malaysia’s Port Klang and Malacca Ports. They are located on the strategic transit route of ships from China to Europe, the Mediterranean and Africa. In fact, Singapore Port is one of the ports with the strongest connection with Chinese ports in Southeast Asia. Then comes the Port of Manila in the Philippines and then Port Klang in Malaysia.[3]
We can say that Singapore and Malaysia are more friendly towards China due to economic and more generally geostrategic factors. In terms of security, these two countries are included in the Five Powers Defense Arrangement (FPDA), as they are former colonies of Britain. They are therefore closer to the UK’s security strategy. China, on the other hand, is trying to create a balance against the USA by supporting these countries that are not included in the bloc politics.
The Philippines has been struggling to find the balance in the US-China rivalry lately. However, the Philippines is one of the countries that benefited most from the maritime leg of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As a matter of fact, during the Rodrigo Duterte period, the Philippines became politically close to China and trade and investment relations increased in this process. To put it in general terms; In the last 10 years, Southeast Asian countries have benefited greatly from the investments made by China within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Western actors are making efforts to change the Southeast Asian countries’ view of China and to attract them to their side. It can be said that after the Philippines, other regional states will also come under the pressure of the USA. The fact that US President Joe Biden plans to visit Vietnam in the future is indicative of this. Likewise, Australian President Anthony Albanese has announced that he may visit the Philippines next month.[4] These steps show that the states of the region, especially the Philippines, are under great pressure at the point of US-China rivalry. It can be said that especially the USA, Japan and Australia are trying to include them in an anti-Chinese axis by establishing close relations with the regional states.
But it is very difficult to get Southeast Asian countries to take an open front against China. As a matter of fact, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an organization that is neither in the camp of the USA nor China, and in this sense adheres to the principle of neutrality. For many years, China, together with the ASEAN countries, has been trying to promulgate a declaration setting the rules of conduct in the South China Sea. In 2002, China agreed with this organization on a Code of Conduct (DOC) between Parties but failed to take it a step further and proclaim a Statement of Rules of Conduct (COC).[5] As tensions rise in the region, Beijing is trying to sign this agreement as soon as possible.
Japan’s efforts to develop its ties with Southeast Asian states are also noteworthy. Tokyo seeks to cooperate with each of the regional states in the field of defense. In this context, Japan’s defense cooperation with Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia comes to the fore. The USA and its allies Japan and Australia are trying to include Southeast Asian countries in Western alliances in the long run.
As a result, while the US-China rivalry continues to shake the global balance of power, the geopolitics of South Asia is also seriously affected by this earthquake. China, on the other hand, warns that the countries of the region should not be used as “chess pieces”.[6] The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs carries out intense diplomatic traffic to prevent Southeast Asian countries from being under the influence of the USA. In this context, China calls on ASEAN countries to oppose the US-led security and trade blocks. Southeast Asian states that do not want to be included in any bloc may make a new opening in the axis of multipolarity soon.
[1] @duandang, “Noticeably Missing, However, Are Statements from The ASEAN Member States!”, Twitter, 9 Ağustos 2023, https://twitter.com/duandang/status/1688885530254319616?s=20, (Erişim Tarihi: 09.08.2023).
[2] “Why do Singapore and Malaysia have a more favourable view of China than the US?”, SCMP, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3186192/why-do-singapore-and-malaysia-have-more-favourable-view-china-us, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2023).
[3] “The World’s Busiest Ports”, Visiul Capitalist, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-busiest-ports/, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.07.2022).
[4] “Australia PM Albanese To Visit Philippines with Focus On Maritime Security”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-albanese-visit-philippines-with-focus-maritime-security-2023-08-11/, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.07.2022).
[5] “China, ASEAN To Hold South China Sea Code of Conduct Talks This Month”, RFA, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/asean-southchinasea-05162022091755.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 21.05.2022).
[6] “China Says SE Asia Nations Should Avoid Becoming ‘Chess Pieces’”, Mizzima, https://www.mizzima.com/article/china-says-se-asia-nations-should-avoid-becoming-chess-pieces, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.08.2023).
