South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Seoul on Monday, January 6, 2025 for talks focused on efforts to deter North Korean threats and other important issues. Despite the parliamentary impeachment of former President Han Duck-soo less than two weeks after Yoon’s removal, the United States reaffirmed its strong support for its “ironclad” alliance with South Korea and expressed confidence in the country’s proxy leadership. The allies agreed to fully resume bilateral diplomatic and security programs that had been suspended following martial law.[1]
Blinken’s visit emphasized confidence in South Korea and highlighted the importance of the alliance between the two countries and their strategic cooperation against security threats in a region of political uncertainty. This is because South Korea is one of the strategic partners of the US in the Asia-Pacific. At a time when China’s influence in the region is increasing day by day, the partnership between South Korea and the US constitutes an element of balance in the region. The US military forces in South Korea constitute a deterrent to China. On the other hand, this partnership enables the establishment of multilateral diplomatic relations. At this point, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in addition to its cooperation with China, is increasing its security support with the United States, exchanging trade and technology with South Korea, and offering opportunities to its member countries in line with their development goals.
During his visit to Seoul, US Secretary of State Blinken said that North Korea’s missile test is an indication that Washington needs to deepen cooperation with South Korea and Japan to deter Pyongyang.[2] Trilateral cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan in the face of North Korea’s nuclear activities is important for the stability of regional security. Joint military exercises between the three countries aim to deter North Korea and have an indirect effect on ensuring the security of trade and maritime routes of Southeast Asian countries.
When Pyongyang’s deepening ties with Moscow are considered in the context of sharing nuclear missile technology or supporting each other in military fields, it is seen to be in contradiction with the goals of US-South Korea cooperation and, if China’s support is obtained, it is seen to weaken the regional strategies of the US and its allies and pave the way for the deterioration of regional stability. For this reason, it is foreseen that the US, which believes that US-South Korea-Japan cooperation should be strengthened, will pursue a path to consolidate its influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, political uncertainties in South Korea and the imminent return of the Donald Trump administration in the United States do not provide a clear framework as to whether these efforts can be sustained. Even if this does not destabilize the trilateral alliance, a more flexible defense cooperation is likely to be adopted due to Trump’s “America First” approach. Thus, more practical bilateral cooperation and interest-oriented policies will be observed. This method, which will be beneficial in the short term, has a structure that may negatively affect the durability of the alliance in the long term. In addition, political tensions in the South Korean government will also play a role in limiting the impact of the trilateral alliance.
South Korean lawmakers voted last month to impeach and suspend President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law on December 3. Yoon has been permanently removed from the office. Presidential elections will soon be held and the liberals, who are seen as likely to win the race, have criticized Yoon’s efforts to build a partnership with Tokyo.[3] This could lead to increased tensions in relations with Japan, thus weakening the trilateral alliance’s joint security efforts. However, considering the rise of China in the region and the US strategy to maintain its influence in the region at a time when North Korea continues its nuclear activities, it can be argued that the US-South Korea-Japan trilateral alliance will be agreed to be maintained and domestic political fluctuations will not be able to get in the way of foreign and security policies.
As a result, Blinken’s visit not only provided a more robust stance in the international arena against the domestic political problems in South Korea and the possible government’s attitude towards Japan, but also reinforced the strategic cooperation of the trilateral alliance to address regional security concerns. Rather than weakening US-South Korean relations, the negative developments in the South Korean leadership and North Korea’s increasing cooperation with Russia have reshaped them against potential threats in the region and emphasized the importance of regional security.
US-South Korea relations will continue to deepen in terms of security and regional cooperation. Even if tensions in domestic politics or changes in governance occur from time to time, maintaining regional stability will remain at the center of bilateral relations. Moreover, within the framework of the US-South Korea partnership, the balance of power in strategic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, both in terms of multilateral cooperation and competition, will lead actors in the region such as North Korea and China to take measures to increase their security or consolidate their influence.
[1] “Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. to discuss alliance, N. Korea amid impeachment uncertainty”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250106000800315, (Accessed Date: 06.01.2025).
[2] ” North Korea tests mid-range missile as Blinken visits Seoul”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-ballistic-missiles-south-korea-says-2025-01-06/, (Accessed Date: 06.01.2025).
[3] Ibid.
