It was announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit France, Serbia and Hungary respectively between 5-10 May 2024.[1] Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that the visit was Xi’s first visit to Europe in the last five years and would “give a new impetus to the peaceful development of the world”.
China’s contacts with Europe are also closely followed by the United States of America (USA). This is because the US continues to exert pressure on Europe in foreign policy and especially in relations with China. In recent years, France has started to distance its commercial relations with China due to these pressures. Despite these US-originated negativities, China’s insistence on maintaining dialogue and cooperation has a positive, albeit limited, repercussion on countries such as France and Germany.
Indeed, during his visit to Beijing in February 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron said that they would not blindly follow the US on crises and supported Beijing’s policies. Likewise, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had signalled that they would increase their contacts with Beijing and follow a different path than the US.
Due to the threat of US economic sanctions, European countries are trying to manage their trade relations with China in line with the “risk aversion” strategy. Indeed, China’s continued economic and military links with Russia are still a matter of concern for European countries. Therefore, Europe, with the influence of the United States, is keeping secondary sanctions against Beijing on its agenda. In this regard, in mid-February, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions for the first time against companies from India and China for their cooperation with Russia.[2] In order to improve its relations with Europe, China imposes stricter controls on trade-economic transactions with Russia.
China’s main objective is to correct “misunderstandings originating in the United States” in its relations with Europe, to reduce and, if possible, to eliminate transatlantic influence. Xi’s visit to Paris also coincides with the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
China is keen to accelerate dialogue with Europe in order to put its damaged relations back on track. European countries have also realised the importance of improving their political relations with China in order to resolve the Ukrainian issue. The politics of “marginalisation” or “polarisation” will not bring any gains to Europe. In this sense, marginalising Beijing will further accelerate Europe’s isolation process.
Europe may need China’s diplomatic initiatives to initiate peace talks in Switzerland. In this respect, the possibility of Beijing using its influence over Moscow is still a tempting factor for Europe. In this context, China’s shuttle diplomacy to bring both Europe and Russia to the peace negotiation table could also boost Beijing’s global image.
However, in recent years, Europe has come under the influence of the US and continues to make polarising moves against China, such as “de-risking” and “secondary sanctions”. Indeed, the EU’s moves to blacklist Chinese companies due to their ties with Russia are quite similar to the US’s practices in its trade war against China. Chinese telecommunication companies, the rapidly growing IT sector and the huge electric vehicle industry are leading Europe into a new trade war with China. On the other hand, Beijing is keen to ensure that European investors remain in the Chinese market. While Europe is preparing to launch a trade war against China with Washington’s warnings and guidance, Beijing is constantly warning Europe about the risks of such a move.
The recent developments in the US domestic politics also have an impact on Europe’s policy change regarding China. As a matter of fact, Europe is worried about Trump’s potential victory. In this case, there is a danger that Europe will be left alone in the field of defence and support for Ukraine. Due to this risk, Europe may have decided to adopt tougher policies on China in order to gain the support of the US.
China does not want global geopolitical differences to get in the way of close co-operation with Europe. Europe, on the other hand, is experiencing a similar divergence of views on China as it did on Russia. In other words, European countries do not agree on Russia and China. Europe now aims to fight against Russia and China simultaneously. This, in fact, means the division of the world into two between the West and Russia-China, in other words, polarisation and a new Cold War period.
In conclusion, with the deepening US-China rivalry, European states are preparing for a “systematic confrontation” with China in the near future. But it is also possible that this conjuncture will change. There are still opportunities for co-operation. Therefore, regardless of the changes at the global level, an atmosphere where restraint, common sense and dialogue can prevail in Europe-China relations in the coming period can still be formed.
[1] “Xi to visit France, Serbia and Hungary, chart blueprint for ties”, Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311496.shtml, (Access Date: 01.05.2024).
[2] “EU Agrees New Sanctions on Russia, Blacklisting Companies in Mainland China for The First Time”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/02/21/eu-agrees-new-sanctions-on-russia-blacklisting-companies-in-mainland-china-for-the-first-t, (Access Date: 01.05.2024).