After the end of the Korean War, the Korean Peninsula was divided into two parts. Even though they had similar political systems at the beginning, South Korea switched to a liberal economic order in the following period, while North Korea continued to remain in a communist regime. This situation caused North Korea to view South Korea as hostile, and it began to get closer to other communist states, especially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).
After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, North Korea began to cooperate more with China. The Russia-Ukraine War, which started in February 2022, resulted in the suppression of Moscow by Brussels and Washington in many ways and Russia’s efforts to find friends in the international arena. In this context, Russia has started to increase its cooperation, especially with China and North Korea.
Increasing contacts with Russia have been interpreted as signs of the beginning of a bloc on the North Korea-China-Russia line. The fact that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia and the following meetings are on similar dates with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Russia is a situation that needs to be examined. Wang Yi held security meetings during his visit to Russia. The most striking issue of Kim’s visit to Russia reflected in the media is also defense. This similarity has caused Western states to focus on the possibility of a triple alliance bloc between the three countries.
In addition to the arms trade allegation, which has been talked about for a long time and has been read as a sign of alliance between Russia and North Korea, the question “Will the Moscow administration help North Korea with nuclear weapons?” recently comes to mind. [1] Therefore, it is discussed that there may be nuclear cooperation between the two countries.
A statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 14, 2023, also had an impact on the emergence of this idea. While possible military cooperation between Russia and North Korea was being discussed during the meeting between Putin and Kim, Putin stated that Moscow developing a military partnership with Pyongyang was among the possibilities. [2]
The potential strong cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has been opposed by both Seoul and various states. For example, in his speech to the United Nations (UN) on September 20, 2023, South Korean Leader Yoon Suk-yeol pointed out that Russia’s sale of weapons to North Korea would mean a direct provocation and that Seoul and its allies would not remain indifferent to this situation. [3]
When countries other than Seoul that react to North Korea’s increasing activity are considered, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Countries (QUAD) countries stand out. On September 20, 2023, foreign ministers of QUAD member states warned UN members not to carry out arms trade with North Korea. [4] In another statement made by QUAD foreign ministers, it was expressed that QUAD members were against the possible Pyongyang-Moscow arms deal.[5]
Despite all these developments, there was no significant tension between South Korea and China. On the contrary, Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Hun Duck-soo, who met on the sidelines of the 19th Asian Games held in Hangzhou on September 21, 2023, gave messages of unity. In the remark made by Xi, it was claimed that Seoul and Beijing are “integral cooperation partners.” [6]
When examined from this point of view, it can be noted that Western states have accepted, albeit implicitly, China’s critical role in the North Korean problem and that this issue cannot be fully solved without China. That is because China-North Korea relations are older and more profound than Moscow-Pyongyang relations. In this context, the role played by China in the current problem has not escaped the attention of Seoul and Western states.
As a result, recent developments point to deepening relations and a possible alliance between North Korea and Russia while once again revealing that China still maintains its crucial role in the region. It can be expected that China’s position on the North Korea issue will continue to be one of the restraining factors of the US-China competition in the future.
[1] Josh Mayer, “North Korea Could Get Satellite and nuclear weapons Help from Putin. Why İt Matters.”, USA Today, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/14/russia-north-korea-satellite-nuclear-weapons/70845185007/, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
[2] Tessa Wong, “Vladimir Putin Says Military Cooperation with Kim Jong Un a Possibility”, BBC, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66783384, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
[3] “South Korea’s Yoon Tells UN That Russia Helping North Korea Would Be ‘Direct Provocation’”, Reuters, https://t.ly/94Mb6, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
[4] “QUAD Ministers Urge UN Members Not to Trade Arms with North Korea on UNGA Sidelines”, Republic World, www.republicworld.com/world-news/global-event-news/quad-ministers-urge-un-members-not-to-trade-arms-with-north-korea-on-unga-sidelines-articleshow.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
[5] “‘Quad’ FMs voice opposition to arms deal between Russia, North Korea”, Yahoo News, news.yahoo.com/quad-fms-voice-opposition-arms-172709524.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
[6] Chen Qingqing-Deng Xiaoci, “Xi Meets South Korean PM, Calling on Embodying the Importance of China-South Korea Ties in Both Policy and Actions”, Global Times, www.globaltimes.cn/page/202309/1298757.shtml, (Erişim Tarihi: 24.09.2023).
