Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Mohammed Yaqoob visited Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), on 4 December 2022. Although the visit was mainly evaluated in terms of the Taliban’s relations with the UAE, Mujahid also met the United States (US) Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Tom West, during his contacts in Abu Dhabi. This situation shows that there is a search for dialogue on the Taliban-US line.[1] Of course, there are mutual reasons for this search.
Considering the priorities of the Taliban, it can be said that the issue of recognition comes first. As it is known, the US withdrew from Afghanistan on August 31, 2021, within the scope of the Doha Agreement signed with the Taliban on February 29, 2020, and thus the twenty-year occupation in the country came to an end. However, the Taliban, which dominated Kabul on August 15, 2021, has been struggling to find solutions to the country’s fundamental problems, despite being in power for 1.5 years. Because of this difficulty lies the inability of the Taliban to establish a healthy relationship with the international community due to the recognition problem. Because the US did not recognize the Taliban administration even though it accepted the Taliban as its interlocutor and signed the Doha Treaty. Accordingly, a sensitivity has developed in the international community, such as not establishing official relations with the Taliban. In other words, the way to the recognition of the Taliban passes through reconciliation with the US. For this reason, the Taliban feel the need to establish a dialogue with the US. Because the opening of a healthy communication channel between the parties may open the door for the Taliban to overcome the recognition problem. Moreover, the Taliban is aware that it will not be possible to solve the investment problem without overcoming the recognition problem.
The second issue that caused the Taliban to have contact with the US is the economy of the country. Currently, the Washington administration has confiscated Afghanistan’s national reserves. Although the Afghan Fund has been established to evaluate these reserves, the Taliban is not represented in the fund, which functions as the “Central Bank of Afghanistan.”[2] This prevents the Taliban from producing a solution to overcome economic problems. Therefore, the Taliban feel the need to negotiate over national reserves and funding.
Moreover, the economic dimension of the issue is not limited to this. Because the Washington administration has been sending 40 million dollars in aid to Afghanistan every week since April 2022, despite all the conflicts.[3] Undoubtedly, these aids are very important for Afghanistan’s economy, given the lack of investment in the country and the employment problem experienced in this context. As can be understood, the Taliban administration believes that there should be continuity in the flow of aid.
Thirdly, it can be stated that the fact that the Taliban did not get what they expected in terms of aid, investments and recognition from Russia and China, among the global actors with which they were closed during the period when they were dominating Afghanistan, was one of the factors that led to the acceleration of his contacts with the US.
On the other hand, it is not just the Taliban; the US is also aware of the need for dialogue. In this sense, it can be said that various factors lead the West to come together with Yaqoob. The first of these factors is related to the Central Asian policy of the Washington administration. As it is known, after the Russia-Ukraine War, the importance of the said region in the eyes of the West increased.
The USA and its European allies want to develop energy-based relations with Central Asian countries. On the other hand, the expectation of the regional states is foreign direct investments. At this point, the security of investments gains importance. This leads the Washington administration to security-based cooperation with the states of the region and brings it to understand the region’s approach to the Afghan Problem. The main sensitivity of the Central Asian republics is based on resolving the Afghan Question through dialogue. The regional states think that if Afghanistan is not withdrawn to the ground of international cooperation, radicalization and terrorism in the country will increase. For this reason, the US started to establish a dialogue with the Taliban.
The second reason is related to the Pakistani dimension; again, due to a security-based approach. Because after Shahbaz Sharif became Prime Minister of Pakistan, important developments took place in the relations on the Washington-Islamabad line. The rapprochement between the parties also brings security-based cooperation. The US is conducting air operations against the terrorist organization Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in line with the expectations of the Islamabad administration, using Pakistani airspace. This situation is considered by the Taliban administration as a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty. However, Pakistan also has a healthy cooperation approach in the context of Afghanistan. Therefore, the US is in search of a formula that will carry out counter-terrorism operations without confronting the Taliban, and that will not cause tension between the Taliban and Pakistan. This is one of the factors that led to the meeting of the Taliban Defense Minister and the US Special Envoy to Afghanistan in Abu Dhabi.
Thirdly, the US thinks that the Taliban should accept the demands of the international community. These demands mainly include issues such as establishing an inclusive government, respecting human rights, especially women’s rights, and the fight against terrorism. At this point, the Taliban’s acceptance of these demands requires dialogue. In other words, the US seems to have reached the idea that it is necessary to meet with the Taliban to impose the conditions of the international community on the Taliban.
Finally, the Washington administration is pleased with the tension in the Taliban’s relations with Moscow. Because the US does not want an actor that develops close relations with its rivals in the global power struggle to rule Afghanistan. This issue also played a decisive role in the cold approach towards the Taliban. But at this point, Russia tends to distance itself from the Taliban. This situation causes the US to see the Taliban as an actor with whom dialogue can be established.
After all, Mullah Yaqoob met with West during his visit to the UAE. This meeting, on the other hand, revealed the search for dialogue on the Taliban-Washington line. Because the parties need communication. In this communication, the efforts of the Taliban to overcome the recognition problem, the economic crisis in Afghanistan, the regional security, and the Russian factor in the context of Central Asia and Pakistan are decisive. However, opening channels of dialogue does not mean that the US will recognize the Taliban. But it could be the first step on the way to that.
[1] “Acting Defense Minister Meets With US Envoy For Afghanistan”, Tolonews, https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-181081, (Date of Accession: 09.12.2022).
[2] Ahmad Khan Dawlatyar, “Afgan Fonu: ABD Neyi Hedefliyor?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/afgan-fonu-abd-neyi-hedefliyor/, (Date of Accession: 09.12.2022).
[3] Ahmad Khan Dawlatyar, “Why is the US Sending Dollars to Afghanistan on Behalf of the International Community?”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/why-is-the-us-sending-dollars-to-afghanistan-on-behalf-of-the-international-community/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 09.12.2022).