In the traditional security understanding of the modern period, factors such as the use of force, territorial integrity and border security were important. In addition to these, many factors such as food safety, environmental security, energy security and cyber security have begun to be taken into account in the new security understanding of the post-modern period. The importance of such factors was most recently recognized once again during the Russo-Ukrainian War. This war negatively affected the security of not only Europe, but the whole world. The power struggle in the world has focused on Europe, the Pacific and Central Asia. Each region has turned into a trump in the hands of great powers. While Russia is busy with Europe; China is focused on the Pacific.
Western powers do not know how to fight both Russia and China at the same time. The best solution they found might be to threaten the security of Central Asia, where Russia and China have common security concerns. Thus, neither China will be able to focus more on the Pacific nor Russia will be able to deal more with Europe.
There is one issue that China has been insisting on lately: it worries about the growing footprints of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States of America (USA) in Asia. [1]Beijing believes that many security problems that are closely related to Central Asia today are deliberately produced by NATO-USA. Beijing, in the first place, thinks that the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan is a trap prepared for itself. For the past year, it has been claimed that China has established a base for border security within the territory of Tajikistan. It has been stated that the factor causing this is the terrorist problems originating from Afghanistan. Moreover, it is claimed that the weapons left by NATO in Afghanistan led to the escalation of terrorism in Kashmir.[2]In order to prevent the spread of terrorism in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China may consider building outposts across the border. But it seems unlikely that China will take over the region’s gendarmerie, as the US does. Here, there is a handicap for China. In the past, while the USA provided this security, China was able to comfortably carry out its economic projects. But now it has to make efforts itself to ensure the safety of these corridors. However, it is known that China has made it a principle to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of other countries and does not favor a cross-border military engagement. However, it is not easy to solve the problems of Central Asia without intervening in the region. Since the Western powers know this principle of China very well, they aim to threaten the security of Central Asia and to occupy it with the problems in its west. In this way, China will not be able to remove its face from the problems in Asia and will not be able to deal with the problems in the Pacific.
When protests broke out in Kazakhstan before Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, the Western powers thought that Moscow could no longer turn its face to the West, that it would be busy with the problems in Central Asia and that the operation in Ukraine would take at least 2-3 months.[3]However, the President of Kazakhstan, Mr. Kasım-Cömert Tokayev’s application to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to suppress the protests and overcoming of the problem with the rapid intervention of the organization, has made the West to concern and ask “Is the Russian influence increasing in the region?”.
The political-economic rivalry between Russia and China, especially over Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, seems to be in line with the interests of the Western powers. Russia came back from this crisis by strengthening its hand in Central Asia. It provided moral support for its war in Ukraine. So much so that these moves of Moscow have also been met with concern from the point of view of China.
Essentially, Russia did not want any more problems in Central Asia in order to deal with Ukraine and had to rely on China in this regard. China, on the other hand, may have learned some positive lessons for itself from Russia’s Ukraine War. In this sense, Beijing has seen how important it is to start a ground war or hybrid war in its immediate vicinity, as Russia has done. Therefore, China may think that Russia may begin to threaten the security of Central Asia just as it threatens Europe. For this, it can take steps to show a military presence in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. In other words, Russia may not have a friend to lean on in Central Asia. While Russia wants China to be more interested in the Pacific; on the other hand, China wants Russia to focus on Europe.
There are a number of opportunities, threats and challenges for both Russia and China in Central Asia. First of all, there are some difficulties in establishing a NATO-like collective defense organization in the region. Despite the fact that the Russian-led CSTO has a joint intervention force and a collective defense principle, the decisions to send troops to a country are made more difficult compared to NATO. Moreover, the fact that China is not a member of the CSTO increases the need for a strong collective organization in Eurasia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), on the other hand, could not go beyond being a regional organization that focused more on border issues and where China is more at the forefront.
The most discussed issue in the world lately is collective security. China’s biggest criticism of NATO and the USA also is in this direction. The Beijing administration is concerned that NATO may become involved in problems in both the Pacific and Central Asia. If China cannot establish a NATO-like security platform under its own leadership, it will fall behind in the race for hegemony in the world.
Russia and China do not think that the CSTO and SCO, respectively, can come up with a global concept. Because these organizations are not in the capacity to deal with the crises in the world, both in terms of their members and their establishment goals and objectives. That’s why China has called on the BRICS countries to create a global security platform.[4] This approach indicates that China can establish a new security organization centered on or including the BRICS countries. In addition, Beijing is aware that for the security of Central Asia, the terrorism problem in Afghanistan and Pakistan must be resolved first. For this, it needs the support of India. In this context, the fact that New Delhi remains hostile to Islamabad may actually be a situation that China does not want. Because this conflict increases the risk of war not only in Kashmir, but in the entire region. Therefore, Beijing wishes and supports India to contribute more to regional security within the framework of the SCO.
In this context, India pioneered the execution of two exercises within the framework of the SCO in 2022. The first of these is the joint counter-terrorism exercise called “Manesar-Antiterror-2022”, which will be held in India in October 2022. The second is the joint border operation called “Friendship Border”, which is planned to be held in Kazakhstan. China, in particular, aims to bring Pakistan and India together within the framework of the SCO. Both China and Russia consider it valuable to cooperate with India in terms of the security of Central Asia.
New Delhi is not involved in Central Asia as a competitive actor, but as a partner that prioritizes cooperation. Nevertheless, India may want to put itself at the forefront by taking advantage of the Russia-China rivalry in Central Asia. For example, the Taliban look at India as an actor that can balance Pakistan. In other words, when it cannot get what it want from Pakistan, the Taliban can use their relations with India as a trump against Islamabad. In short, India, which is involved in the region as a third power, is accepted as an attractive actor for all parties.
As a result, it is important to gain the support of new actors such as India in order to establish the security of Central Asia. On the other hand, the threats to the security of the region are much greater than the opportunities seized. To be able to prevent these threats, first of all, depends on the steps to be taken by the powers in the region.
[1] “China in Eurasia Briefing: Why The Ukraine War Matters For Asia”, RFERL, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-matters-for-asia/31856235.html, (Date of Accession: 21.05.2022).
[2] “How NATO Weapons from Afghanistan Are Impacting Kashmir’s Militancy”, DW, https://www.dw.com/en/how-nato-weapons-from-afghanistan-are-impacting-kashmirs-militancy/a-61838513, (Date of Accession: 21.05.2022).
[3] “«Острие копья» срочно поворачивают на Запад”, Rosbalt, https://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2022/01/13/1939298.html, (Date of Accession: 21.05.2022).
[4] “Çin, BRICS Ülkelerine ‘Küresel Güvenlik Topluluğu Kurma’ Çağrısı Yaptı”, Haberler, https://www.haberler.com/guncel/cin-brics-ulkelerine-kuresel-guvenlik-toplulugu-14954907-haberi/, (Date of Accession: 30.05.2022).
