The 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia have produced results that have had deep repercussions in both domestic and foreign policy, and have paved the way for important discussions about the country’s future direction. The announcement of the election results showed that the ruling Georgian Dream Party (GDP) was strongly ahead, but this was met with harsh criticism from opposition parties. President Salome Zurabishvili’s description of the elections as “completely fraudulent” and her call for people to join the protests has increased political tensions and deepened political polarization in the country. While international observers noted that the elections were generally peaceful, they also revealed the existence of some structural and systemic problems.
The preliminary results of the parliamentary elections announced by the Central Election Commission of Georgia showed that the GDP was ahead with 53.028 percent of the votes. This can be interpreted as a development that strengthens the GDP’s position and strengthens its potential to maintain its power. On the other hand, according to the current data, where more than 70 percent of the votes have been counted, it is striking that the opposition is scattered across different blocs. The Alliance to Save Georgia coalition, which includes groups such as the United National Movement and Strategy Agmashenebeli, only received 9.852 percent of the votes. The For Georgia Party led by Giorgi Gakharia received 8.224 percent of the votes, the Coalition for Change 11.185 percent of the votes and Strong Georgia 9.011 percent of the votes, showing that the opposition is fragmented and unable to consolidate broad popular support. These results point to the weakness of the opposition against the GDP due to its lack of unity.[1]
Zurabishvili’s response expressed concerns that the election results could deeply affect Georgia’s integration with the West, and made claims to that effect. Zurabishvili stated that the elections were “completely fraudulent,” and underlined Russia’s influence and efforts to distance Georgia from Europe through a “special operation.” These statements reflect the serious polarization in Georgia’s domestic political atmosphere and suggest that political tensions in the country could deepen further. The president’s decision to join the protests with the opposition and call on the public to “defend your votes” marks a turning point between Georgia’s pro-Western and Russian-influenced political orientations. This suggests that the mass demonstrations in Tbilisi could lead to new political turmoil in the South Caucasus.[2]
The reactions of international observers to the election process are also noteworthy. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the European Parliament representatives stated that the elections were “largely peaceful” and noted that this demonstrated the existence of an adequate legal framework for democratic elections. Despite the effectiveness of the organization of the elections, it was emphasized that recent changes to the candidate selection and decision-making processes had damaged the public perception of the impartiality of the election administration.
Observers stated that although the election day was generally orderly, reports of violations of the secrecy of the vote and pressure on voters indicated a tense atmosphere. It was noted that despite the competitive nature of the campaigns, the language and visuals used were highly polarizing, further adding to the political tension.[3]
Following the elections, different attitudes were also displayed on the EU front. While Brussels closely monitored the balancing policy pursued by the GRP, the failure of radical pro-Western candidates was viewed negatively by many EU members. However, Hungary, as the only member state to support Georgia, displayed a different attitude and supported the country’s policies that prioritized its national interests. This situation was an indication that Georgia had to maintain a balanced and pragmatic approach in its relations with the West. The EU’s demands for reform and its insistence on adherence to democratic values indicate that external pressure on Georgia will continue for some time. The European Commission’s enlargement report, in particular, pointed to the difficulties Georgia faced on its path to EU integration, stressing the need to withdraw controversial bills and implement democratic reforms. The European Commission’s criticism of the GDP’s enactment of laws similar to Russia’s influence and its practices restricting freedom of expression was an indication that the West’s pressure on Georgia will continue. Paweł Herczyński noted that Georgia’s future European perspective is based on its leaders’ commitment to democratic values and the rule of law, and stressed that the EU accession process will proceed on the basis of merit. In particular, the lack of transparency in the electoral process and the concerns of international observers have highlighted the challenges Georgia faces on its path to EU integration.[4]
The Georgian economy has followed a positive course during the GDP government. Growth was recorded at 8.3 percent in September and 9.8 percent in the January-September period. This growth was supported by sectors such as construction, finance, insurance, transportation and trade. Despite the decline in the energy sector, international financial institutions have increased Georgia’s economic growth expectations. The IMF predicts growth of 7.6 percent in 2024 and 6 percent in 2025. It is understood that the GDP’s economic policy will focus on continuing growth while taking into account national interests. During this period, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Asian Development Bank have also made positive revisions emphasizing the potential of the Georgian economy.[5]
Georgia’s current political atmosphere and election results show that the country is determined to continue its policy of balance. The GRP’s preservation of power indicates Georgia’s efforts to both maintain its relations with the West and to continue its geopolitically based policy of balance. Zurabishvili’s and the opposition’s reactions in particular confirm the existence of a pro-EU and anti-Russian stance within society, and in this context, show that the desire for European integration continues among the people. However, despite the pressure from the West, the GRP will pursue a more autonomous foreign policy by taking into account national interests. Policies focused on energy, trade and economic growth in particular show that Georgia will continue its efforts to limit its dependence on Europe with its independent economic development strategy. This scenario predicts that Georgia will pursue a balanced policy based on its will to make independent decisions, even if it experiences disagreements at certain points in its relations with the EU.
On the other hand, the EU may have to adopt a more flexible stance in order to prevent Georgia from falling completely under Russian influence. While the election results and the public’s participation in the protests demonstrate Georgia’s deep commitment to its relations with Europe, the EU may need to partially revise its demands for democratic reform and human rights and find common ground. In order not to lose Georgia completely and to maintain a strategic partnership in the Caucasus, the EU may adopt a more flexible approach and be more sensitive to Georgia’s internal balances in the future. In this case, the EU may reduce its pressure on Georgia’s balancing policies and seek to preserve opportunities for cooperation. In this way, it may adopt a diplomatic approach based on mutual understanding in order to ensure that Georgia takes more positive steps in its EU integration process in the long term.
[1] “Georgian Election Commission’s preliminary results put ruling party at 53%”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41279, (Date of Accession: 31.10.2024).
[2] Emma Burrows, “Georgian president won’t recognize parliamentary election result and calls for a protest”, APNews, https://apnews.com/article/georgia-russia-election-european-union-8f040cb30e1d9c9e778383cbcbb7b2c1, (Date of Accession: 31.10.2024).
[3] “Georgia’s elections marred by an uneven playing field, pressure and tension, but voters were offered a wide choice: international observers”, OSCE, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/georgia/579376, (Date of Accession: 31.10.2024).
[4] “EU Ambassador on bloc enlargement report: future of EU-Georgia relations ‘now in hands of Georgian Gov’t’”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41376, (Date of Accession: 31.10.2024).
[5] “Rapid Estimates of Economics Growth: September 2024”, GeoStat, https://www.geostat.ge/media/66508/Rapid-Estimates-of-Economic-Growth%2C-September-2024.pdf, (Date of Accession: 31.10.2024).
