For the last 30 years, Russia has accused the United States (US) of undermining post-Cold War security by expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Citing this, Moscow officially withdrew from the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CICA) on November 7, 2023. Recall that Russia suspended the treaty in 2007 and ceased active participation in 2015.
In response to Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty, NATO suspended its operations related to the CSTO. NATO said that the allies were complying with the treaty, but that without Russia’s compliance it would not be possible for such a treaty to exist.[i]
The Cold War era’s polarization politics remains valid for Russia and the West. The West and Russia act as if they are in a bipolar system. On the other hand, China is very uncomfortable with the fact that Russia is following the West’s bloc politics. Beijing wants to build a global system with Moscow based on multipolarity and mutual understanding. Due to this Western policy of polarization, Russian-Chinese relations have progressed in many areas during the post-Cold War period.
The US effort to assume the leadership of the so-called “unipolar world”, which began in the 1990s, has led to the expansion of NATO and the growing Western presence in the Asia-Pacific. This made Moscow-Beijing cooperation inevitable. Both countries oppose US global hegemony. However, the two actors diverge in terms of the method of struggle, the goals pursued and the discourse and tools used.
In the last 20 years, it has been frequently stated that the unipolar order in the world is coming to an end and a multipolar order is being established. As American hegemony begins to decline, it is debatable whether Russia and China will compete with each other for global military-political leadership. Despite their recent declaration of a comprehensive strategic partnership, the two great powers have many historical disagreements. Above all, neighboring basins, such as Central Asia, are key elements of the rivalry between the two countries. Having triggered a crisis in Ukraine, the possibility that Russia might follow suit in Central Asia is enough to make China nervous. On the other hand, China proposes a global security and economic initiative, especially to ensure the security of the “Belt and Road Project”. In this respect, China’s goals envision a peaceful global economic model, while Russia is still pursuing a policy of military polarization.
In fact, China has been making intensive efforts, especially in the last 1-2 years, to convince Russia to engage in the construction of a peaceful global system. These efforts have accelerated since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. In fact, on the anniversary of this war, China issued a policy document expressing its views on this crisis and called on Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.[ii] Moreover, during this process, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held meetings in both Ukraine and Russia. When these initiatives failed, Chinese President Xi Jinping personally visited Moscow in March 2023, and at the end of the visit, as he left the Kremlin, he said the following to Russian President Vladimir Putin:[iii]
“There are changes in the world now that have not been seen in the last 100 years. And we are driving these changes together.”
With these words, Xi Jinping made clear his intention to work together with Russia in building the next century. For China, the next century should be built on the basis of “a vision of an honest and just world in the common interests of mankind”. Russia, on the other hand, has resorted to military expansion in order to challenge the West, moving away from dialogue in favor of polarization. In objecting to NATO’s expansion, Moscow cites the “principle of indivisible security”. According to this principle, “states should not jeopardize the security of others at the expense of their own.” Similarly, China proposes a “Global Security Initiative” in which the security of the whole world is considered together.
However, as mentioned above, Russia and China follow a very different line in terms of the methods to be followed and the discourses and tools to be used in the construction of global security. In other words, what Russia and China take from global security and their solutions to it are very different. To date, China and Russia have not taken a similar step to establish a collective defense organization in Eurasia in the face of NATO’s expansion. However, Russia has established an organization similar to NATO in Central Asia. In this context, the establishment of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in 1992 was one of the first signs that Russia would continue its Cold War-era policy of polarization. In contrast, China developed a different concept of regional security from Russia by pioneering the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, which focused on solving terrorism on neighboring borders. Already in the 1990s, it became clear that it would be very difficult for Russia and China to reach a consensus on the construction of a multipolar global system.
[i] “NATO Freezes Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe”, VOA News, https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-freezes-treaty-on-conventional-armed-forces-in-europe-/7345262.html, (Date of Access: 22.08.2024).
[ii] “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, FMPRC, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, (Date of Access: 22.08.2024).
[iii] “Xi and Putin pledge to shape a new world order as the Chinese leader leaves Russia with no peace in sight for Ukraine”, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/xi-putin-pledge-new-world-order-chinese-leader-leaves-russia-rcna76048, (Date of Access: 22.08.2024).
