United States (U.S.) Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John C. Aquilino, in his speech in Tokyo in December 2023, said that they were very concerned about the increasing joint military operations of China and Russia in the region.[i] Admiral John C. Aquilino also emphasized that North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile tests are a regional concern. Admiral Aquilino stated, “I view this as far beyond a common interest,” and noted that North Korea had previously cooperated only with China and highlighted that the recent rapprochement with Russia was extremely new.
On July 14, 2024, the Chinese and Russian naval forces conducted a joint exercise called “Exercise Joint Sea-2024” at a military port in southern China. Looking back, the Russian-Chinese joint fleet continued its maritime security activities in the Pacific Ocean in July and August 2023 and conducted joint exercises off the coast of Alaska. The joint fleet’s patrol duty extended to the East China Sea.
In mid-December 2023, Chinese and Russian bombers conducted a joint flight over the waters between Japan and the Korean Peninsula in the East China Sea. In response, Japanese fighter jets engaged in preventive actions. Because Japan has territorial disputes with China regarding the East China Sea islands. Therefore, Tokyo sees Beijing’s moves here as a threat to national security. Likewise, Japan experiences constant tensions with Russia due to the historically unresolved Kuril Range issue.
Japan is especially concerned about China’s increasing joint military activities with Russia. Moreover, the failure of effective military communication mechanism between rival actors increases the risk of a possible war in the region. In this context, it is very important for China to demonstrate its good will to continue the defense dialogue with the U.S. in order to prevent a possible military encounter. Because the U.S. provoked China by making a high-level visit to Taiwan in August 2022. This risk of conflict between the U.S. and China also unsettles Japan and other allies. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to re-establish military communication during their meeting in November 2023. If military communication channels are re-established in a healthy manner, the risks of military encounters in the region will also decrease.
Russia’s development of naval cooperation with China causes the U.S. and its allies in the region to take action. A report from Asia Times on December 21, 2023, stated, “Moscow is rebuilding its naval power to expand joint patrols with China and counter the AUKUS security agreement.”[ii] Indeed, Russia may be planning to largely turn its focus to the Asia-Pacific region after the conflict in Ukraine and open a new front against the Western powers there. Because here China especially needs Russia’s support. Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine has caused to sidelining of its cooperation and partnerships with China in the Asia-Pacific.
The five fleets of the Russian Navy (Arctic, Pacific, Black Sea, Caspian and Baltic) are challenged to simultaneously address to geopolitical risks and threats in the world. While Russia continues its war in Ukraine, it has also continued to modernize its Pacific Fleet to counter potential threats in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, it has noticeably increased the exercises and naval patrols in the region. Over the past year, the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet has conducted eight strategic-level naval exercises in addition to numerous other activities.[iii]
Expanding its joint activities with China in the Pacific, Russia has also begun to strengthen its naval connections in the Indo-Pacific. In this context, a naval task group of the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet embarked on a tour covering Southeast and South Asia in November and December 2023. For the first time in fifty years, the Russian Navy sent warships to Bangladesh, visited a port in Indonesia for four days, and held its first naval exercises in the Andaman Sea with the Myanmar Army. During this period, Russian Navy ships also visited Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines. This also indicates an expansion of Russia’s military presence in the region.
Finally, it is estimated that the deepening maritime cooperation between China and Russia aims to counter defense alliances, especially AUKUS. Russia was extremely disturbed by the increasing activities of Western powers in the Asia-Pacific and has felt the need to show solidarity with China. Crises in Europe could potentially shift to the Asia-Pacific in the near future, Russia and China are already taking steps to address this possibility.
[i] “US Indo-Pacific Commander Is ‘Very Concerned’ About Escalation of China-Russia Military Ties”, Ap News, https://apnews.com/article/japan-us-china-russia-commander-military-b8aae52f021dd7f57595512d069797fe, (Date of Accession: 26.07.2024).
[ii] “Sleeping on Russia’s Naval Resurgence in The Pacific”, Asia Times, https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/sleeping-on-russias-naval-resurgence-in-the-pacific/, (Date of Accession: 26.07.2024).
[iii] Ibid.
