Pentagon officials have warned that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it will begin to threaten the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and allies must be prepared.[1] Underlining the urgent need for Ukraine to develop a comprehensive strategy, former US Admiral Mike Hewitt argued that Russia would potentially put NATO member states at risk.
As Russia is expected to launch a new offensive this summer, experts warn that Russian forces could seize new territories. Therefore, even US military assistance may not help Ukraine achieve a decisive victory. In such a case, Hewitt mentioned the possibility of Russia targeting NATO members in the Baltic region as part of its overall strategy.
For months, French President Emmanuel Macron has been pushing the option of deploying NATO troops in Ukraine to fight against Russia. Macron has reiterated his willingness to send troops to Ukraine if Russia approaches Kiev or Odesa.[2]
Dmitry Kiselyo, a Russian television host, warned that a new world war could erupt if NATO sent troops to Ukraine to ‘inflict a strategic defeat on Russia’.[3] The Russians talk about the danger of nuclear war and warn the Western powers with harsh words.
NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine and the option of sending troops, if necessary, is leading Russia to repeat its nuclear threats. Moscow reiterates its nuclear threats whenever it receives a decisive response from the West. The international community is opposed to any use of nuclear weapons and has signed a series of multilateral agreements to this end. In addition, threats to use force are prohibited under the Charter of the United Nations.
Nevertheless, Russia has been warning of nuclear war after receiving decisive Western support in the war in Ukraine. In this regard, TV host Dmitry Kiselyo said, “Don’t push Russia into a corner. Russia is the only country in the world that can actually turn the United States into radioactive ash.” by threatening to take Moscow’s side, in fact, propagandizing for Moscow.
Political scientist Vuk Vuksanovic of the London School of Economics explained that there could be “only two scenarios” for a Russian war against NATO and warned that both options would entail “the risk of using nuclear weapons”.[4] Vuksanovic made the following comment to the Daily Express:[5]
“There are only two scenarios for a NATO-Russia conflict. Either NATO intervening on behalf of Ukraine or Russia invading a NATO member state.”
Many NATO countries are increasing their support for Ukraine in order to guarantee their national security. In this context, bilateral security agreements with Ukraine are also in place. A number of NATO members have signed bilateral agreements with Ukraine, guaranteeing continued support. Britain, France and Germany were the first to sign the treaties. Subsequently, Denmark, Italy and Canada also signed bilateral security cooperation agreements with Ukraine. The priority here is to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense systems, artillery, long-range strike capabilities, armor and combat aviation. In brief, a critical process has begun to limit the conventional war in Ukraine and prevent it from leading to a global nuclear war.
The red line for Russia here seems to be “NATO sending troops to Ukraine”. On the matter, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his willingness to deploy nuclear weapons if the United States sends troops to Ukraine.[6] “Weapons are there to use them,” Putin said, emphasizing that Russia’s nuclear missiles are always ready for war from a military-technical point of view.[7]
It can be said that a critical period has begun in global geopolitics due to the rhetoric of “Nuclear War”, “NATO-Russia War” and “World War III”, which have been frequently voiced by both Western and Russian officials in recent months. It is also noteworthy that today Ukraine’s close neighbor Poland is talking about the deployment of nuclear weapons. As a matter of fact, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda has stated that Russia is increasingly militarizing Kaliningrad and has recently shifted its nuclear weapons to Belarus, and that talks with the United States on the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country are ongoing.[8]
As the debate on war with Russia continues, it is questionable how politically and psychologically prepared Europe is for it. As the voices of “war” are raised in Europe, the success of Ukraine’s resistance against Russia is also being debated. If Ukraine loses this war, NATO should be prepared for a new confrontation with Russia on another front. If Russia creates other crisis areas in its neighborhood after Ukraine, it will be another blow to the interests of the West. Hence, Europe is struggling to form a political unity within itself. If Poland turns into a Western “nuclear base”, it will open the door to a possible NATO-Russia war.
[1] “Russia to ‘threaten NATO’ as Putin looks to ‘escalate’ brutal war, Pentagon insider says”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1892962/russia-nato-putin-escalate-campaign, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
[2] “Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa”, Kyivpost, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29194, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
[3] “Russia threatens to ‘sink Britain’ if Nato sends troops to Ukraine”, Metro, https://metro.co.uk/2024/04/29/russia-threatens-sink-britain-nato-sends-troops-ukraine-20739775/, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
[4] “‘Only two scenarios’ for Russia’s war on NATO unveiled as Vladimir Putin rages on”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1892059/russia-war-nato-vladimir-putin-threat, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
[5] Ibid.
[6] “Russia-NATO nuclear war maps show how UK cities would be annihilated in conflict”, Express, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1893428/russia-nato-nuclear-war-map-uk-cities, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
[7] Ibid.
[8] “Poland ‘ready’ to host nuclear weapons, Polish president says”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/poland-ready-to-host-nuclear-weapons-polish-president-says/, (Date of Access: 30.04.2024).
