With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989[1] and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 199[2], the Cold War ended and a new world order was established under the leadership of the United States (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in which Washington was the only side. With its global hegemony, the USA has made its economic and political values dominate the international system. However, after the global economic crisis in 2008[3], Russia’s re-emergence has made it clear that the pursuit of multipolarity and competition with Western hegemony in Russian foreign policy.
As a matter of fact, Russia has started to compete with the USA once again as its revisionist stance started to get stronger. It is known that this competition has many political, ideological, geographical, geopolitical, strategic and military dimensions. It can be said that one of the most important pillars of this competition is the economy. Because the USA is also a hegemon in the context of the global economy and has a critical role in the economic consolidation of the West, including the European Union (EU) integration process.
At this point, it can be said that energy is the most important weapon of Moscow for an economic competition with Washington. Because Russia is such a great power that it can be called hegemon in the field of energy. Because, although the West, and especially Europe, unite in opposition to Russia, there is an energy dependence in their relations with Russia. It can be stated that this situation strengthens the Kremlin’s hand.
Despite all this, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine on February 24, 2022[4] caused a global energy crisis. Because Western actors, and especially the EU, have imposed important sanctions on Russia due to the war. Sanctions implemented within the framework of energy are one of the most important pillars of these decisions.
Although it was seen that the West was more harmful than Moscow from the sanctions imposed on energy in the first stage, it was seen that the sanctions weakened Russia’s influence and global influence in the energy field in the following period. Because, according to the estimates made by both analysts, strategists and the public opinion, it is not easy for Russia to re-establish an energy hegemony regardless of the outcome of the war.
While the Russia-Ukraine War has completed its first year, both Western sanctions, the fall in fossil fuel prices and Russia’s inability to get what it wanted in the war damaged the country’s position in the oil and gas market. This negatively affected Moscow’s status as an “energy superpower”. At this point, it can be argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin had some miscalculations. For example, it can be said that the decline in the prices of fossil fuels will force the Russian economy, and Putin has not been able to analyze it in a healthy way.
Although the importance of countries in the Asian market such as China and India has increased against the Western sanctions for the Moscow administration, it is obvious that the interruption of the EU market is a significant loss.
As it is known, Russia exported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas to EU countries in 2021. This constitutes 45% of the total natural gas imports of EU countries. Moreover, it is known that Russia aims to increase this amount to 230 billion cubic meters[5]. Therefore, it can be argued that Russia has lost one of the most critical and important markets for the country’s economy.
In this context, the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War led Europe to seek alternative exporters, especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) of the USA. At the same time, European states have begun to put the issues of transition to renewable energy on their agenda much more strongly than in the past. Undoubtedly, this process has been accelerated as the transition to renewable energy will reduce the dependency on natural gas and oil.
In line with all this information, it can be stated that the establishment process of the European Energy Community and the transition to renewable energy will be accelerated in the future. At the same time, it can be predicted that studies on fusion energy will accelerate. Therefore, it can be concluded that after the war in Ukraine, Russia will not continue to be an “energy superpower” and will lose its hegemony in the global energy market.
[1] “Berlin Wall”, History, https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/berlin-wall#:~:text=at%20high%20speeds.-,The%20Berlin%20Wall%3A%20The%20Fall%20of%20the%20Wall,to%20cross%20the%20country’s%20borders., (Date of Access: 27.03.2023).
[2] “End of the Cold War”, Cold War, https://coldwar.unc.edu/theme/end-of-the-cold-war/#:~:text=In%201989%2C%20Soviet%20forces%20withdrew,end%20of%20the%20Cold%20War., (Date of Access: 27.03.2023).
[3] “The Great REcession and It’s Aftermath”, Federal Reserve History, https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath, (Date of Access: 27.03.2023).
[4] “Ukraine in Maps: Tracking the War With Russia”, BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682, (Date of Access: 27.03.2023).
[5] “How Europe Can Cut Natural Gas Imports from Russia Significantly Within a Year”, International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year, (Date of Access: 27.03.2023).
