Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev have frequently threatened the use of nuclear weapons. Medvedev, who served as President between 2008 and 2012, repeatedly voiced the rhetoric of nuclear conflict throughout Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. This is perceived as a very harsh attitude. [1]
It is known that Belarus was an important ally of Russia in this war. Therefore, it can be argued that Belarus is also included in Russia’s nuclear threats. As a matter of fact, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said in a statement on August 17, 2023 that his country would be willing to use nuclear weapons given by its close ally Russia against foreign “aggression”. [2]
The Minsk administration played a key role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia sees Belarus as an important ally in its operation in Ukraine. The Russia-Belarus joint military exercise held last year has increased concerns that Belarusian troops may join Russian forces in 2022. Lukashenko made the following statements about the war:[3]
“Belarus will never join this war unless the Ukrainians cross its border. But we will continue to help Russia, they are our allies. If provoked, especially by neighboring NATO countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, Belarus will immediately respond with everything it has, including nuclear weapons.”
Recently, there have been claims about how much of Russia’s nuclear arsenal has been moved to Belarus. However, these are not clear. On the other hand, US and Western officials have not publicly announced that any weapons were transferred. However, senior officials from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have said that Russia has no reason to do this.[4] Lukashenko also used the following statements: [5]
“We will not delay, we will not wait, and we will use our entire arsenal for deterrence. We didn’t bring nuclear weapons here to scare someone. Yes, nuclear weapons are a powerful deterrent factor. But these are tactical nuclear weapons, not strategic. Therefore, we will use them immediately if an attack is launched against us.”
It is important that Lukashenko’s latest statements come at a time when the security environment in Europe is increasingly deteriorating. Belarus’ northern neighbors are concerned about the presence of the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Belarus. This escalates regional tension. Citing its concerns about Wagner, Poland recently announced that it would send approximately 10 thousand soldiers to the Belarusian border and arrested two Russian citizens accused of spying and making propaganda for the Russian mercenary group. [6]
As a result, it can be argued that unless the tension in the Russia-Ukraine War decreases, external interventions such as Belarus will not decrease and therefore the tension will not decrease in the short term.
[1] “Medvedev Says Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapon if Ukraine’s Fightback Succeeds in Latest Threat”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/31/europe/medvedev-russia-nuclear-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
[2] “Belarus Would Use Nuclear Weapons in the Event of ‘Aggression,’ Lukashenko Says”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/31/europe/medvedev-russia-nuclear-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
[3] “Belarus Would Use Nuclear Weapons in the Event of ‘Aggression,’ Lukashenko Says”, Egypt Independent, https://www.egyptindependent.com/belarus-would-use-nuclear-weapons-in-the-event-of-aggression-lukashenko-says/, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
[4] “Belarus Would Use Nuclear Weapons Only in Case of Aggression”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/08/18/exp-lukashenko-nukes-vo-sot-081802aseg1-cnni-world.cnn, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
[5] “Belarus Would Use Nuclear Weapons in the Event of ‘Aggression,’ Lukashenko Says”, Cable News Network World, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/31/europe/medvedev-russia-nuclear-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
[6] “Belarus Would Use Nuclear Weapons in the Event of ‘Aggression,’ Lukashenko Says”, Egypt Independent, https://www.egyptindependent.com/belarus-would-use-nuclear-weapons-in-the-event-of-aggression-lukashenko-says/, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.08.2023).
