One of the current problems of states is demographic issues. Countries are working to prevent demographic problems. This is because population is one of the basic building blocks and power elements of a nation. In this sense, population is the basis of its existence and development. Naturally, the people and the state are interconnected. In this sense, the size of the population, the quality of life and the level of development also shape the future of the relevant state.
Undoubtedly, demographic problems affect all areas of societies. Therefore, preserving the population, supporting its number and quality of life is one of the basic conditions for socio-economic development of countries and, moreover, for ensuring national security. In this sense, Russia is one of the countries that has been experiencing a demographic crisis for the last 30 years and has therefore been debating its potential.
The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by high mortality rates, low birth rates and a corresponding population decline. The increase in the population over 60 years of age and the high difference in the life expectancy of men and women point to a demographic crisis in the country.
As is well known, the population in Russia, which had been growing until the second half of the 20th century, tended to decline after that period due to famine, wars and infectious diseases, especially among children. However, the high birth rate during this period compensated for the demographic damage. Today, Russia is facing demographic deterioration due to low birth rates, transformations in lifestyles, changes in the role of men and women in the family, the reflection of these changes on social roles and many other reasons.
As a matter of fact, the increasing labor demand of the Russian economy necessitates the recruitment of migrant workers. Therefore, there is a process that changes the socio-cultural structure of the country and the ethnic structure of the society is changing. All this weakens the demographic power of the country.
On the other hand, solving demographic problems requires significant resources and time. This difficulty in a matter of national security concerns Moscow. This is because, although the focus of attention when evaluating issues related to national security is mainly on external threats, the future of a state depends on its population, standard of living, level of education, needs and cultural development. Therefore, demographic problems are at least as important as defense, economy, ecology, etc. problems.
It should be noted at this point that according to Russia’s “National Security Strategy”, one of the country’s long-term national interests is to ensure stable demographic development.[1] In this context, a Demographic Development Concept from 2001 to 2015 and a Demographic Policy Concept from 2007 to 2025 were developed to improve the demographic situation in Russia. The aim of these concepts was to increase fertility and reduce mortality. Thus, the aim was to stabilize the population between 2015 and 2025.[2]
At this point, it is necessary to recall the following speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who drew attention to Russia’s demographic problems:[3]
“We have internal problems arising from the nature of Russia. They are primarily related to demographic problems. Russia has experienced two natural declines in its demographic development. The first one took place during the Second World War. The second one occurred after the collapse of the Soviet Union and lasted until the mid-1990s. In order to strengthen our state in the face of this humanitarian and economic problem, we need to solve the demographic problem. This is one of our main tasks.”
Despite Putin’s statement, it is seen that the demographic problems in the country have deepened after the Russia-Ukraine War. First the Covid-19 pandemic and then the war in Ukraine accelerated the decline in birth rates. Indeed, the Gaidar Institute predicts that in late 2023 and early 2024, the lowest annual birth rate in Russia’s history may be seen.[4]
Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine war has led to a massive exodus. Although the number of people leaving the country is not disclosed by the official authorities, The Bell estimates that over 500,000 Russian citizens have left the country since the beginning of 2022.[5] Bloomberg forecasts that Russia will not reach its demographic stabilization target by 2030. Accordingly, Russia’s population will decline by 416,700 by 2030. This will undermine potential growth. The Kremlin administration, on the other hand, will try to reverse the decline in the labor force through maternity policies and tighten fiscal policy.[6]
In conclusion, demographic problems in Russia are extremely complex and have a negative impact on the country. The war in Ukraine has further deepened the demographic problems in the country. Therefore, Russia is not expected to overcome its demographic problems until 2030.
[1] “О Стратегии национальной безопасности Российской Федерации”, Consultant, http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_389271/cdd1e8eed2bcebb6784f447b23a23ef965850237/, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
[2] “Концепция демографической политики РФ на период до 2025 г”, Consultant, http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_71673/7a46cb13de731db3333fcd77a4f7887e468287e3/, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
[3] “Путин назвал демографию основной проблемой России”, Vedomosti, https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/news/2021/11/30/898265-demografiyu-osnovnoi-problemoi, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
[4] “Институт Гайдара: Следующий новый год РФ встретит с самым низким в российской истории числом рождений”, Ng, https://www.ng.ru/news/757093.html, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
[5] “Сколько россиян в 2022 году уехало из страны и не вернулось”, The Bell, https://thebell.io/skolko-rossiyan-v-2022-godu-uekhalo-iz-strany-i-ne-vernulos, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
[6] “Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/putin-s-war-escalation-is-hastening-demographic-crash-for-russia?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify%20wall, (Date of Accession: 10.01.2023).
