Romania is entering an important turning point in European politics with the 2024 Presidential Elections. The first round of the elections was held on November 24, and 13 candidates competed in the election. Since no candidate received an absolute majority, the second round will be held on December 8.[1] The elections are of great importance not only for the country’s domestic politics but also for the future direction of the European Union (EU).
Before the second round, parliamentary elections will also take place on December 1. This could change the country’s political landscape. Social Democratic Party (PSD) Leader and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is leading in the polls. Ciolacu, who aims to increase Romania’s international reputation and economic growth, said: “I have a clear plan for a more developed Romania, based on economic growth and investment, that leaves no one behind, and I have a plan for a Romania that is more respected and influential abroad.”[2]He continued his election campaign with his statements.
Among the candidates, the leader of the Alliance for the Unity of Romania (AUR) and far-right nationalist ultra-nationalist George Simion stands out with his striking populist rhetoric and tough stance against the EU. If Simion wins the election, it is eagerly awaited how Romania’s relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its position within the EU will shape. Simion criticizes the current political class, promises to defend the economy and national sovereignty, rejects military aid to Ukraine and supports Donald Trump. While the high cost of living and support for Ukraine are among the voters’ priorities, Ciolacu’s government has tried to combat economic hardship by increasing the minimum wage and pensions.[3]
Simion, one of the main candidates in the elections, positions himself on the political line of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and US President-elect Donald Trump. Simion states that the AUR Party he leads is a Trumpist party, while at the same time expressing his pleasure that his party is aligned with the political family led by Meloni. Simion claims that Meloni has brought hope back to the European project in Italy, and that there is a “Meloni effect” in Europe and that he will create a “Simion effect” in Romania.
Simion states that Romania will continue its commitment to NATO and will work to reform the EU. However, he does not hesitate to openly state that he will take a tougher stance against Brussels. Simion, who says that he can violate EU rules, states that he will oppose any law that is against Romania’s interests. Despite this, he stated that he has priorities such as full access to the Schengen Area, the establishment of a directly elected executive body in Europe and the increase of industrial production.
The AUR Party has been known for its anti-vaccine stance during the Covid-19 pandemic and has drawn criticism for some of its controversial statements.[4]Despite criticism, Simion says he defends conservative values and will work for a stronger Europe. His defiant stance towards Brussels shows that he is taking a closer approach to the policies of leaders such as Viktor Orbán.
Simion also advocates stopping military aid to Ukraine and brokering a peace deal through Trump. He hints that this deal could require territorial concessions from Ukraine, but says he has not directly called for such a deal. Simion also denies having ties to Russia and calls Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.”[5] The 38-year-old candidate, founder of the AUR Party, who also said, “I want Romanians to feel that leaders are not just rule-takers, but rule-makers,” is a name banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine.[6] However, this stance could significantly affect Romania’s position within the EU and the political balances in the region.
Other major candidates include Elena Lasconi, leader of the Save Romania Union Party, former NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana, and former army general and center-right party candidate Nicolae Ciuca. The split in the center-right vote is likely to increase the support of Elena Lasconi, who is in third place. These center-right candidates make it difficult to predict the election outcome.
In the parliamentary elections, PSD is expected to come first with 30 percent of the vote. AUR is in second place with 21 percent.[7]Alternatively, a coalition between the PSD and the AUR could radically change Romania’s position in the EU and NATO, but the PSD’s promise to exclude the AUR could also raise the possibility of early elections.
In summary, Romania is entering a critical period in which it will evaluate the possibility of remaining on a pro-European line or shifting to a more nationalist orientation with the first round of the presidential elections taking place on November 24. The first round of the elections has been a decisive stage for the country’s political future. This process may be effective in determining Romania’s position within the EU and its support for Ukraine.
Romania’s new president will face challenges including a slowing European economy, the need to reduce a high budget deficit and pressure to meet NATO spending targets. According to polls, leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is likely to win the second round on December 8. However, the strong second place of right-winger George Simion could affect the composition of the government. High living costs and domestic concerns make him particularly popular on the right. Ciolacu’s government has tried to improve the economy with social benefits. However, the split in the centre-right vote is improving the chances of alternative candidates but also making the incumbent president’s situation much more difficult.
Romania’s election process could have a decisive impact on foreign policy. One of the strongest candidates in the election, Marcel Ciolacu, has also stated that he will maintain ties with the West. On the other hand, far-right candidates such as George Simion are advocating for Romania to pursue a more independent foreign policy, particularly by questioning military aid to Ukraine and the influence of the EU. If these candidates win, Romania could follow a less integrationist path in foreign policy. Romania’s foreign policy could shift to a more pro-Western or independent stance depending on the election results. Therefore, this election will be an important turning point that will shape Romania’s future policies.
[1]“Polls open in what is expected to be first round of Romania’s presidential election”, Euronews,https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/24/polls-open-in-what-is-expected-to-be-first-round-of-romanias-presidential-election, (Access Date: 24.11.2024).
[2]Stephen Mcgrath, “Romania holds a presidential election Sunday that could narrow to nationalist and leftist candidates”, AP News,https://apnews.com/article/romania-presidential-election-nationalist-nato-europe-1fc92b253352da28f99a7bc18530f3f2, (Access Date: 24.11.2024).
[3] Luisa Ilie, “Romanians vote in presidential election focused on high living costs, Ukraine war”, Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hard-rights-simion-with-chance-romanians-vote-president-2024-11-24/, (Access Date: 24.11.2024).
[4]Victor Jack, “Romanian hard-right chief pitches himself as Europe’s next Meloni”, Politico,https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-hard-right-aur-chief-pitches-himself-as-europes-next-giorgia-meloni-or-donald-trump-elections/, (Access Date: 24.11.2024).
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7]Jon Henley, “Romania at turning point as pro-EU and nativist candidates seek election”, The Guardian,https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/21/romania-at-turning-point-as-pro-eu-and-nativist-candidates-seek-election, (Access Date: 24.11.2024).