On March 21, 2022, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing statements by White House officials, suggested that Russia was turning to a new strategy after failing to achieve a quick victory over Ukraine and that Russian President Vladimir Putin had switched to “Plan B”.
The WSJ quoted him as saying that Moscow no longer intends to seize the capital Kiev as well and wants to force the Ukrainian authorities to “surrender” the southern and eastern territories. If it achieves this goal, it will have provided a “land bridge” between the western part of Russia and the Decimated Peninsula and expanded its control over the Donbas. Accordingly, Putin will continue to bomb Ukrainian cities in order to get Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy to agree to the Kremlin’s demands. According to the WSJ, one of the goals of Russia is to force Ukraine to accept its neutral status. If Putin’s demands for control over the “southern lands” and neutrality are rejected, he will try to retain all the territories occupied by Russian soldiers and continue the war.
The WSJ recalls that the comments about Putin’s “Plan B” and his new strategy are not the result of an official assessment by the intelligence community, but the opinion of some White House officials who have access to classified information.[1]
There have been some changes in Russia’s policy regarding the war against Ukraine. The most important of these changes has been the start of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with a view to dec the war. Russia has previously accepted the United States of America (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as interlocutors on security issues. He considered Ukraine to be a passive actor guided by Washington and serving the geopolitical goals of the United States against Russia. The start of the talks indicates that Russia is moving away from these ideas.
The second change in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine has been related to the goals announced with the start of the war. When the decision to intervene militarily was made on February 24, 2022, Russia listed several objectives of this “special operation”. 1. Demilitarization/demilitarization of Ukraine. 2. The overthrow of Ukrainian power. 3. Ensuring the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination, 4. Jul. The fact that nuclear weapons are not allowed to appear in Kiev. 5. Non-admission to NATO membership.[2]
On the second day of the start of the war; namely, on February 25, 2022, Mikhailo Podolyak, Chief Adviser to the President of the Ukrainian Presidential Office and a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, announced that “Russia can discuss the country’s ‘neutrality status’ in exchange for ending the war”.[3] However, Russia has continued to maintain its military activities. On the tenth day of the war, changes in the conflict zone began to affect the Kremlin’s plans.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov on 5 March 2022, the fast depletion of resources, Russia’s military offensive, and the slowdown due to the resistance of Ukrainians, within 48 hours of Ukraine the Kremlin conquer big cities, capturing the added power tilting to Russia and Ukraine starting to change their plan and tactics that failed, he said.[4]
On March 17, 2022, Moscow authorities announced that Russia does not intend to invade Ukraine, destroy its state, or overthrow the president. Two days later, on March 19, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that he hoped that this war would “end with the signing of comprehensive documents, including the neutrality status, guaranteeing Ukraine’s security”.[5] On March 19, 2022, Podolyak said that he had received signs that Moscow’s position had become more “reasonable” in negotiations with Russia on ending the war against Ukraine; but he said that this process (negotiations and the war) could continue for at least a few more weeks.[6]
In a statement on March 20, 2022, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, Russia, and Ukraine is close to an agreement on the main issues of Ukraine’s security in exchange for neutrality status where you want to be guaranteed, the guarantor countries of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent members, together with Turkey and Germany that can be also reported.[7]
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet, who is trying to mediate for the normalization of Russia-Ukraine and invited the parties to Jerusalem to sign a peace agreement, explained that the Russians no longer demand neither to overthrow the Zelenskiy government nor to completely disarm Ukraine; in addition, Ukraine no longer needs NATO membership.[8] Podolyak noted that the key issues in the negotiations with Russia are the conclusion of a ceasefire, security guarantees, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a “political solution in the disputed territories (Crimea and Donbas)”.
The most problematic areas between Russia and Ukraine are the Crimean and Donbas regions under the occupation or control of Russia. Russia wants Ukraine to recognize “the sovereignty” of Moscow over the Crimea and “independence” of the secessionist Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Donbas and to start negotiations with them. Ukraine, on the other hand, argues that it does not make any concessions to Russia.[9] Ukraine believes that in order to reconcile with Russia, security guarantees should be signed first and that the next stage should focus on the resolution of Crimea and Donbas issues.[10]
On the one hand, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is continuing, Ukraine is also trying to limit it by inflicting heavy losses on Russia. The military developments in the Ukrainian field, the pressures of the international community and the fact that the parties were approaching a compromise on some issues were seen in the diplomatic negotiations. The fact that the country adopted the status of a neutral state in exchange for providing Ukraine with a security guarantee is positively received by Russia. But the most important goal of Russia in the current situation is the recognition of Crimea as the “land of Russia”. However, Ukraine shows that it will not make any concessions on its territorial integrity. Kiev’s proposal is in the direction of a model of joint management of disputed territories within the territory of Ukraine. Moscow, on the other hand, wants the final agreement to be comprehensive and to include the status of the Crimea and the Donbas regions.
As a result, it is obvious that Russia is changing its strategy regarding Ukraine. The most important factor influencing this decision of the Kremlin has been the developments on the battlefield. The reduction of Russia’s combat resources, the cessation of its advance by the Ukrainian Army, and the inconclusive outcome of the negotiations may lead Russia to a policy that will be limited to controlling the territories it occupies. In addition, it will continue air strikes and low-intensity clashes. This, in turn, will bring the Ukrainian War into a state of “neither war nor peace” and make the crisis unresolved.
[1] i “У США и Британии разные данные о планах Путина на Киев”, ZN.UA, https://zn.ua/UKRAINE/putin-uzhe-ne-stavit-tsel-zakhvatit-kiev-on-khochet-zastavit-ukrainu-sdat-juzhnye-i-vostochnye-territorii-wsj.html, (Date of Accession:: 21.03.2022).
[2] “Путин объявил о начале военной операции на Украине”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/13825671, (Date of Accession: 22.03.2022).
[3] “Советник Зеленского сообщил о готовности Киева обсуждать с Москвой нейтральный статус Украины”, Kommersant, https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5230828, (Date of Accession: 22.03.2022).
[4] “Резников: военные ресурсы врага в Украине заканчиваются, дальше будет логистический коллапс”, İnterfax-Ukraina, https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/807521.html, (Date of Accession: 22.03.2022).
[5] “Лавров надеется, что операция на Украине завершится подписанием всеобъемлющих документов”, TASS, https://tass.ru/politika/14123651, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
[6] “«Позиция Москвы стала более адекватной». Мирные переговоры с Россией могут продолжаться несколько недель — Подоляк”, NV, https://nv.ua/world/geopolitics/podolyak-peregovory-s-rossiey-mogut-prodolzhatsya-neskolko-nedel-novosti-ukrainy-50226491.html, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
[7]“Çavuşoğlu: Rusya-Ukrayna temel konularda anlaşmaya yakın”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberght.com/cavusoglu-rusya-ukrayna-temel-konularda-anlasmaya-yakin-2302059, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
[8] Lahav Harkov, “Bennett: Russia no longer wants to replace Zelensky or demilitarize Ukraine”, The Jerusalem Post, https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-701889, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
[9] “«Позиция Москвы стала более адекватной». Мирные переговоры с Россией могут продолжаться несколько недель — Подоляк”, NV, https://nv.ua/world/geopolitics/podolyak-peregovory-s-rossiey-mogut-prodolzhatsya-neskolko-nedel-novosti-ukrainy-50226491.html, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
[10] “Зеленский: Вопрос Крыма, Донбасса надо решать после получения Киевом гарантий безопасности”, Vzglyad, https://vz.ru/news/2022/3/22/1149729.html, (Date of Accession: 21.03.2022).
