Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Mongolia has once again highlighted the importance of energy relations and international diplomacy dynamics between the two countries. Mongolia largely meets its energy needs through imports, with Russia being a key supplier. Putin’s visit marks a critical turning point in Russia’s energy strategy and Mongolia’s role in international relations. In this context, the impact of the visit on Mongolia-Russia energy relations and its reflections on international diplomacy will be examined.
Firstly, when examining Mongolia’s energy sector, it is clear that the country largely meets its energy needs through imports. In 2022, the country imported electricity worth 178 million dollars, with China (126 million dollars) and Russia (51.8 million dollars) being the largest sources. Between 2021 and 2022, electricity imports from Russia increased by 16.9 million dollars, making it the fastest-growing import market. During the same period, Mongolia’s electricity exports amounted to 331,000 dollars. Electricity is the seventh most imported product in Mongolia, highlighting the country’s dependence on external energy supply.[i]
Mongolia’s strategic role in the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline project is seen as an important issue for both Russia and China. Mongolia’s decision to remove this project from its national development plan by 2028 is considered a significant setback for Russia. The pipeline is at the core of Russia’s efforts to expand its energy market beyond Europe, aiming to export more gas to China as an alternative to the shrinking European market due to Western sanctions imposed because of the war in Ukraine.
Mongolia’s decision is expected to lead to a delay or cancellation of the project. This could further strain Russia’s economic situation, given its reliance on energy revenues and the costs of the ongoing war. From Mongolia’s perspective, this decision is seen as a reflection of its pursuit of independence in projects between China and Russia, as well as the conflicts of interest between the two countries, and is viewed as a strategy to prioritize national interests.[ii]
During his visit, Putin addressed the issue through statements and bilateral meetings, bringing the matter to a new level. He is trying to position Mongolia not only as a transit country but also as a partner that would economically benefit from the project, emphasizing that natural gas offers significant opportunities for the Mongolian economy. However, Mongolia’s decision not to include this project in its development plan until 2028 complicates Moscow’s energy strategy in the region and forces Putin to intensify his efforts to secure approval for the project.[iii]
Putin’s visit also has certain international repercussions. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia, a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), for the first time since the ICC issued an arrest warrant against him in 2023. In Ulaanbaatar, Putin was welcomed with a military ceremony by Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh. Putin is accused of war crimes by the ICC, but Russia rejects these claims. Ukraine has called on Mongolia to enforce the ICC’s arrest warrant, but Mongolia has not responded to this request. Maintaining friendly relations with Russia and being dependent on it for energy needs, Mongolia continues its relations with Russia in this context.[iv]
The Mongolian government has explained its inability to execute the ICC’s arrest warrant for Putin by citing the country’s heavy dependence on imported energy resources. They have even stated that their hands are tied in this regard. Mongolia imports over 95% of its petroleum products and more than 20% of its electricity from neighboring countries. This dependence poses risks to the public in the event of supply disruptions.
Historically, Mongolia has pursued a neutrality policy to maintain balanced relations with both Russia and China. Despite being a member of the ICC, Mongolia has not acted on the court’s arrest warrant for Putin regarding war crimes. While legal experts indicate that Mongolia could face legal consequences for this inaction, international organizations and Ukrainian officials argue that the country undermines international justice.[v]
Putin’s visit to Mongolia highlights the significance of energy relations and international diplomacy dynamics between Russia and Mongolia. Mongolia meets a large portion of its energy needs through imports, with Russia being a key supplier. The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline project is a major focus of Putin’s visit, aiming to increase Russia’s energy exports to China. Mongolia’s decision to remove the project from its development plan until 2028 could lead to a significant shift in Russia’s energy strategy. Additionally, Mongolia’s failure to act on the ICC’s arrest warrant for Putin indicates the country’s response to international justice demands and its efforts to maintain diplomatic relations due to energy dependency. This situation reveals the complex relationship between energy policies and international law. Mongolia’s efforts to manage the challenges posed by its energy dependency and the balance of international relations present a notable case for both regional and global diplomacy.
[i] “Electricity in Mongolia”, OEC, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/electricity/reporter/mng, (Access Date: 08.09.2024).
[ii] “Proposed Russian Pipeline to China Hits Roadblock as Mongolia Excludes it from National Plan”, Pipeline Technology Journal, https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/proposed-russian-pipeline-china-hits-roadblock-mongolia-excludes-it-national-plan, (Access Date: 08.09.2024).
[iii] “Putin makes renewed push for gas pipeline deal with China”, VOA, https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-makes-renewed-push-for-gas-pipeline-deal-with-china-/7772134.html, (Access Date: 08.09.2024).
[iv] “Putin welcomed in Mongolia despite ICC arrest warrant”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy527yex0no, (Access Date: 08.09.2024).
[v] “Sorry not sorry, says Mongolia after failure to arrest Putin”, POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/mongolia-failure-arrest-vladimir-putin-international-warrant-international-criminal-court/, (Access Date: 08.09.2024).
