Analysis

Putin Urges China, Brazil and India to Act as Mediator

As the Russian-Ukrainian war approaches its third anniversary, attempts to resolve it are divided between the Western World and the countries of the Global South.
Ukraine has stated that it will not engage in direct negotiations with Russia, but is working with a range of intermediaries to help end the war.
While Beijing advocates a fair and inclusive solution in Ukraine with equal participation, this position is perceived and criticized by the Western World as a pro-Russian position.

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On September 5, 2024, speaking at a panel discussion at the Russian Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian President Vladimir Putin shared his views on which countries could lead the peace talks with Ukraine.[i] Putin said, “We respect our friends and partners, especially China, Brazil, and India, whom I believe are sincerely trying to resolve all issues related to this conflict. If Ukraine is willing to continue negotiations, I can do that.”[ii] Putin’s statements indicated that actors such as China, Brazil or India could become intermediaries in the Ukrainian peace negotiations.

Ukraine has recently stated that it will not negotiate directly with Russia, but is working with a number of intermediaries to help end the war. Among the countries contacted by Kyiv, some pro-Russian nations might include, and the aim is for these mediator countries to exert pressure on Russia, taking into account Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan.

Clarifying Putin’s call for mediation, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that India could help facilitate a dialogue on the Ukraine issue. Underlining the existing “extremely constructive, even friendly relations” between Modi and Putin, Peskov noted that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi can freely communicate with all parties, especially Ukraine and the United States, and could guide them towards the negotiating table for a political solution.[iii]

It may be recalled that Modi visited Ukraine on August 23, 2024, where he pointed the parties to the war to the settlement table and conveyed India’s readiness to play an “active role” in restoring peace in the region. In these meetings, Modi emphasized that India has been on the side of peace since the beginning of the conflict and even wanted to personally contribute to the peaceful resolution of the crisis.[iv]

As a result of the initiatives of actors such as India and China, it is thought that Ukraine may warm to the settlement table. The visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to China in July 2024 to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi can also be seen as a positive message. Ukraine may be willing to establish diplomatic relations with Russia and end the war under the intermediation of India and China.

However, Beijing refused to participate in the last summit in Switzerland in June, citing Moscow’s absence as the reason, saying that there was no equal participation. Ukraine’s goal is to persuade Beijing to attend peace summits and to support Ukraine’s peace formula. China, on the other hand, has expressed concerns that attending such peace conferences without equal participation from all parties would not be beneficial, and that these unilateral initiatives could further increase polarization.

While Beijing advocates for a fair and inclusive solution in Ukraine with equal participation, this position is perceived and criticized by the Western World as a pro-Russian position. However, China released its own peace plan to resolve the crisis in Ukraine on the first anniversary of the war and conducted shuttle diplomacy between Ukraine and Russia to implement this plan on the second anniversary of the war. These efforts were also appreciated by Ukraine, which called for China to exert more pressure on Russia.

China and Brazil attempted to organize an inclusive meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly on 24-30 September 2024 to contribute to a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine, but its success was limited by the lack of interest of Western actors.

In his address to the UN General Assembly, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva emphasized the ongoing conflict, stating: “It is now clear that neither side can fully achieve its objectives through military means. At this critical moment, it is essential to create conditions conducive to the resumption of direct dialogue between the parties.”[v]

On September 27, 2024, on the margins of the UN in New York, the meeting of the “Friends for Peace” group on the Ukraine Crisis was attended mostly by countries of the Global South. More than 110 countries allegedly supported the six-point plan proposed by China and Brazil, designed to initiate dialogue and end hostilities. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has opposed the initiative of Brazil and China because he was not consulted in the drafting of these plans. This mediation effort by China and Brazil is seen as a “pro-Russian initiative” and criticized by the Western World, especially by Ukraine.[vi]   

As the Russia-Ukraine War approaches its third year, initiatives for resolving the conflict are also divided between the Western world and Global South countries. It is evident from the division in the search for a solution that a two-sided bloc has emerged in the world, and that the Cold War-era polarization is being replicated today.


[i] “Putin says China, Brazil or India could act as intermediaries in Ukraine peace talks”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-eastern-economic-forum-china-brazil-india-intermediaries-peace-talks-ukraine/, (Access Date: 25.10.2024).

[ii] “Prez Putin says he’s constantly in touch with India, China, Brazil over Ukraine conflict”, Repository, https://repository.inshorts.com/articles/en/PTI/58b9825b-5678-4336-ad49-b85dffaaa24d?utm_campaign=fullarticle&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=inshorts, (Access Date: 25.10.2024).

[iii] “Vladimir Putin says India, China, Brazil could mediate Russia-Ukraine talks”, Hindistan Times, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-says-india-china-brazil-could-mediate-russia-ukraine-talks-101725524081529.html, (Access Date: 25.10.2024).

[iv] Ibid.

[v] “China and Brasil advocate for renewed mediation efforts to end Ukraine war at UN”, BGTV Network, https://bgtvnetwork.com/news/15179/china-and-brasil-advocate-for-renewed-mediation-efforts-to-end-ukraine-war-at-un/, (Access Date: 25.10.2024).

[vi] Ibid.

Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk TAMER
Dr. Cenk Tamer graduated from Sakarya University, Department of International Relations in 2014. In the same year, he started his master's degree at Gazi University, Department of Middle Eastern and African Studies. In 2016, Tamer completed his master's degree with his thesis titled "Iran's Iraq Policy after 1990", started working as a Research Assistant at ANKASAM in 2017 and was accepted to Gazi University International Relations PhD Program in the same year. Tamer, whose areas of specialization are Iran, Sects, Sufism, Mahdism, Identity Politics and Asia-Pacific and who speaks English fluently, completed his PhD education at Gazi University in 2022 with his thesis titled "Identity Construction Process and Mahdism in the Islamic Republic of Iran within the Framework of Social Constructionism Theory and Securitization Approach". He is currently working as an Asia-Pacific Specialist at ANKASAM.

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