The rise of the far right in Europe, which has been intermittent for many years, has gained momentum with the Russian-Ukrainian war. One of the latest victories of the far right in continental Europe was the victory of Peter Pellegrini, one of the most hesitant figures on Ukraine, in the elections in Slovakia.[1] Considering that the war is a United States of America (USA)-China struggle in a broad perspective, it was seen that the European continent was the party exposed to the economic and energy crisis.
Another far-right party that is expected to emerge victorious in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Austria on 29 September 2024 is the Freedom Party of Austria. The party’s coming to power also means the coming to power of a “pro-Putin” government. As a result, it can be predicted that the balance within Europe will shift again in favour of the far right and the conflict between the US and the EU will push the EU towards a nation-state approach rather than an organisational approach. This will undoubtedly render the US ineffective in regions where it cannot be involved through the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and can only be involved “in EU clothing”. This situation brings to mind Georgia, with which the West is most closely co-operating.
As it will be recalled, Georgia’s Rose Revolution and the subsequent Mikhail Saakashvili era between 2003 and 2013 pushed the country towards a radical pro-Western policy, plunging the country into a crisis and chaotic environment internally and externally. Since 2013, the balance policy of the Georgian Dream Party (GRP) has been carried out in parallel with attempts to transform the country’s position from a political to a strategic one. However, although the foreign policy of Georgia, which resembles the eastern structure in terms of public opinion and is European in understanding, is expressed as a policy of balance, its basic dynamics have been built with a European focus. The reason for this can be stated as the public demand.
Currently, the rise of the far right continues to deepen the rifts within the EU. These attitudes will also lead to divergences in the Georgian policy in the Caucasus. Western countries have not been satisfied with Georgia’s “pro-” neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine war. For example, Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top official, stated on 24 June 2024 that the controversial law on foreign influence transparency passed by the Georgian parliament was to the detriment of the country. Borrell said that this law distracts Georgia from the path of EU integration, adding that:[2]
“This law and all the accompanying negative developments are pushing Georgia away from the European Union. We will increase our support for civil society and the media, fight disinformation and increase our support for the electoral process.”
The continued rise of the far right will not only reduce the influence of the US on the South Caucasus, but also on the EU. Nevertheless, Georgia, adopting a realist stance, has emphasised the US-Georgia relations within the framework of bilateral relations. This is confirmed by the statements of Irakli Kadagishvili, an authoritative figure in the Georgian Parliament, who stated that the US has no stronger ally in the region than Georgia.[3]
The loss of US influence over the EU may trigger the re-emergence of NATO policies in the region. Indeed, Georgia’s Ambassador to the US David Zalkaliani stated on 8 July 2024 that his country was invited to the NATO Summit and that the integration process would be discussed at this summit.[4] Georgian Foreign Minister Ilia Darchishvili also emphasised “strong partner” on his official page on the X platform.[5]
The above-mentioned points demonstrate Georgia’s determination to maintain a policy of balance in its foreign policy. The rise of the far right may create a favourable Western backdrop for a transition to a period of détente in Russia-Georgia relations in the future. Otherwise, the possible détente in Georgia and the resumption of political negotiations over the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the revitalisation of relations with Russia could also mean a serious loss of parliamentary seats in the parliamentary elections to be held in the last quarter of the year.
The expected parliamentary elections are seen as an opportunity for the West, which is dissatisfied with the GRP’s behaviour, to change the government. In this regard, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that it was wrong for the other side in Western-Georgian relations to be in conflict with the current and official government and to support the opposition United National Movement. Kobakhidze criticised the GRP for alleged corruption by some Western political officials, both in relation to the Foreign Agents Act and integration, and argued that the opposition’s history is full of corruption allegations.[6]
The inconsistent US policies on Georgia can be interpreted as another proof that the US does not care about Georgia’s territorial integrity vis-à-vis Russia. On 2 July 2024, Vedant Patel, Deputy Director of the US State Department, reiterated the sanctions imposed on the Georgian government’s political and military officials and stated that the GRP’s move was “contrary to EU aspirations”.[7]
Georgia’s determination to maintain balance in its foreign policy shows that the country is trying to keep its relations with both the West and Russia in balance. This is a sign that Georgia will continue to adopt a careful and multifaceted approach in its future strategic moves.
During the period when the draft law was being debated in the Georgian parliament on the brink of a possible diplomatic crisis, exchange rates fluctuated due to the Western imposition. It was even rumoured that some states would restrict their cooperation with Georgia in case of a possible situation. However, according to the data announced by the Georgian Statistical Office, the Georgian economy grew by 9.3 per cent in the January-May period.[8] Another statement regarding the economic growth rate came from the global financial rating agency Fitch Ratings. According to the figures announced by Fitch Ratings, the Georgian economy is projected to grow by 5.8 per cent for the rest of 2024, with an average growth rate of 5 per cent from 2025 to 2026. In terms of inflation percentages, there was a 0.5 per cent decline in June 2024, while the annual inflation rate was 2.2 per cent. This information shows that the pressures of the past were no more than verbal political impositions.
The shaping of the political ground in Europe on extreme right-wing policies may also trigger the ground in US-Georgia relations and lead the US to focus on Armenia, another actor in the South Caucasus. However, Armenia’s position in the eyes of the US will not be as important and attractive as Georgia’s border with Russia and its geopolitical and strategic position. In this context, the US is expected to intervene in the elections or support the radical pro-Western political side by intervening through possible NGOs and political formations in order to deepen the divisions in line with its political policy in the region.
In addition to all these, the rise of the far right in the West has the potential to be shaped against the GRP. Although the expected scenario is likely to play an important role in laying the groundwork for diplomatic relations with Russia, it also has the potential to trigger the rise of the far-right movement in Georgia. The country is trying to carefully manage its relations with both the West and Russia. Georgia’s future strategic moves will be shaped in line with its efforts to maintain the aforementioned balances.
[1] “Ukraine-sceptic government ally Peter Pellegrini wins Slovakian presidential election”, The Guardian, https://l24.im/LOpMm, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[2] “Foreign Affairs Council, 24 June 2024”, European Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2024/06/24/, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[3] “Parliament official says US has “no stronger ally in region” than Georgia”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/39811#gsc.tab=0, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[4] “Georgia’s US Ambassador: participation in NATO Summit “step forward” in integration into alliance”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/39823#gsc.tab=0, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[5] “It is my honor to participate in the reception held on behalf of…”, X, https://l24.im/oMjKB, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[6] “Georgian PM says public ‘should not think US, EU support collective opposition”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/39721#gsc.tab=0, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[7] “Department Press Briefing – July 1, 2024”, U.S. Deparment of State, https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-july-1-2024/, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
[8] Rapid Estimates of Economic Growth: May 2024, National Statics Office of Georgia, https://www.geostat.ge/media/63628/Rapid-Estimates-of-Economic-Growth%2C-May-2024.pdf, (Access Date: 12.07.2024).
