European countries are concerned about the rise of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election races. This is due to the possibility that Trump may cut or reduce support to Europe. Therefore, all of Europe has begun to hope that the Democrats in the United States will drop Joe Biden’s candidacy and nominate someone else.
There are developments occurring that justify Europe’s fears. For instance, Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense during the Trump administration, has argued that the United States should end its support to Ukraine and redirect its resources to deter China in the Pacific.[1] Colby stated, “Asia is now the primary theater of war, not Europe. Europe is much more capable of dealing with Russia on its own. I’m not saying we should abandon Europe, but compared to Asia, Europe can much more easily fend for itself.”[2]
Trump’s policy advisors emphasize in their message to officials in Seoul and Tokyo that if elected, Trump would promote relations with Japan and South Korea and alleviate global tensions.[3] Thus, Trump and his team are assuring officials in Japan and South Korea that they will continue and further advance the efforts of the Biden era.
On the other hand, it can be argued that American allies in the Asia-Pacific region are preparing for a possible Trump administration. In this context, expectations include furthering recent ties with Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and other allies, and deepening efforts to counter China, North Korea, and Russia. American allies in the Asia-Pacific region hope that if Trump is re-elected, efforts to restrain China and increase support for regional security will continue.
Comments frequently express concerns that U.S. investments in defense industry are insufficient for a potential military confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region. It is noted that the U.S., particularly its naval forces, faces challenges and lags behind China. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the U.S. prioritizes investments in the Asia-Pacific region during a potential Trump administration. Colby, emphasizing this shortfall, has made the following statement:[4]
“Most importantly, there is potential for a conflict centered around Taiwan, but also potentially on the Korean Peninsula. Neither the U.S., Japan, nor Taiwan is prepared for such a conflict. The U.S. and Japan still tend to view the world through an idealistic lens. However, the Chinese are stronger, and I think there is a very high probability of a conflict breaking out. The U.S. economy is in a very difficult situation. There are serious financial constraints on defense, and there is war weariness in the country. Therefore, there is not a suitable situation for military structuring or focusing on necessary needs.”
The shortcomings in defense, coupled with the Republicans’ “America First” policy, present a more pessimistic picture. In this context, it seems inevitable for the Trump administration to question its support for the security of Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, a Republican administration will need to reassess towards American national interests and ultimately face a choice between investing in the security of either Europe or the Asia-Pacific.
Considering the “America First” policy, China claims that if Trump is elected, the U.S. could abandon Taiwan.[5] Regarding this issue, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated on January 31, 2024, “The U.S. will always prioritize ‘America First,’ and therefore Taiwan could at any moment become a chess piece removed from the chessboard.”[6]
Indeed, if the Republicans, under Trump’s leadership, return to office, they will implement the “America First” strategy. In this context, alternative policies such as withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will once again come to the forefront. However, it should be emphasized that trade wars with China also began during Trump’s term. Therefore, there is curiosity about how Trump’s China strategy and approach to Taiwan will be this time.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the United States needs to deter Russia, otherwise it could send the wrong signal to countries like China. According to Stoltenberg, if the U.S. succeeds in deterring Russia, China will learn the cost of using force against American interests. The NATO Secretary General, in an interview with Fox News on January 28, 2024, mentioned that if Russia wins the war, China could attack Taiwan.[7] Similarly, CIA Director William J. Burns has stated that China currently poses a greater long-term threat to the United States than Russia, despite Russia being the most urgent problem. Burns said, “While Russia presents the most urgent problem, China is the bigger long-term threat.” [8]
In conclusion, if Trump comes to power, we can suggest that the intense struggle between the United States and China will continue. However, there could be significant differences in methods compared to the Biden administration. In this regard, there are substantial differences between the policies pursued by the United States against China during the Trump era and Europe’s approach to China today. Under Trump’s leadership, as a result of warnings and pressures from the United States, Europe has begun to take strategic steps within NATO to halt China’s rise. According to Trump, NATO should not only be responsible for Europe’s security but should also provide equal contributions from all members. Therefore, NATO, if Trump is elected President of the United States, could start operating in a more global concept.
[1] “Former Trump Defense Official Puts Taiwan Above Ukraine; Elbridge Colby Says Chinese Attack Could Come with Little Warning”, Japannews, https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/world/us-canada/20240608-190646/, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
[2] Same source.
[3] “Exclusive: Trump will encourage Japan, South Korea ties, allies tell foreign officials”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-will-encourage-japan-south-korea-ties-allies-tell-foreign-officials-2024-06-28/, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
[4] “Former Trump Aides Differ on U.S. Intl Engagement; But Elbridge Colby, Matt Pottinger Both Share Concern Over Taiwan”, Japannews, https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/world/us-canada/20240608-190708/, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
[5] “China Says Trump Could Abandon Taiwan If He Wins US Election”, Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-says-trump-could-abandon-taiwan-if-he-wins-us-election, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
[6] Same source.
[7] “Putin Is Getting ‘Exactly the Opposite’ Of What He Wanted Out of The War: Jens Stoltenberg”, Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/video/6345769785112, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
[8] “China Says Trump Could Abandon Taiwan If He Wins US Election”, a.g.e, (Access Date: 01.07.2024).
