On 3 May 2023, it was announced that an attempt was made to attack the Kremlin, the presidential palace of Russia, using two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and this attack was prevented. The following statements were included in the information given by the Moscow administration on the subject: [1]
“Two drones targeted the Kremlin. Thanks to timely interventions using radar warfare systems of the army and special services, these UAV attacks were prevented.”
In addition, the attack targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s workroom; However, it has been announced that Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time of the incident. In this context, Russian officials described the incident as “an attempt to kill the Russian leader” and “terrorist attack”. In addition, Moscow claimed that the Kiev administration was responsible for the attack. [2]
Serhiy Nikiforov, the Spokesperson of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, in the face of the aforementioned allegations, stated that Ukraine is defending its own land and said: [3]
“We have no information about the so-called attacks on the Kremlin. As President Zelensky has repeatedly said, Ukraine is using all means at its disposal, not to attack others, but to liberate its own territory.”
Similarly, Zelensky’s Advisor, Mikhail Podolyak, stated that attacking Moscow does not make any sense for Ukraine, and that kind of action could be used by the Kremlin administration to legitimize Russia’s attacks on civilians. In addition, Podolyak pointed out that the attack may have been carried out by resistance groups within Russia and emphasized that Ukrainian UAVs do not fly within the borders of Russia. [4]
As can be understood, the drone attack on the Kremlin is of a nature to escalate the tension on the Moscow-Kyiv line. Therefore, it is possible that this tension will increase the intensity of the war in Ukraine. Although it is not possible to make definite determinations about the background of the attack in the light of the available data, it is very important to agree on how the event was evaluated by which actor, in terms of predicting the fate of the war.
First, if Moscow’s claims are assumed to be true, it can be said that this incident reveals a serious security weakness in Russia. Because this kind of an attack means that Russia can be hit on its own soil. Therefore, Moscow’s theses are essentially an admission that no Russian citizen is safe.
On the other hand, considering that Kyiv’s statements reflect the truth, it can be stated that Ukraine will be adversely affected by this process and the attack will be used by Russia. This could lead to an increase in attacks on Ukraine. In addition, as Podolyak pointed out, if an attack was carried out by insurgent groups within Russia, this can be interpreted as Russia’s serious problems in terms of internal integrity. If this is true, it can be argued that the Moscow administration will have to deal with serious problems within the country in the future.
If we need to evaluate the possible effects of this attack on the Russia-Ukraine War, regardless of which side is correct, it should be stated that Russia may define the Kiev administration as a “terrorist regime” by describing the war in Ukraine as a “anti-terrorist operation”. Therefore, it can be said that the attack is likely to turn into a legitimating tool in Russia’s theses on the war in Ukraine. For this reason, the Russian Army may focus on attacks targeting Kiev, as in the first days of the war. This means the expansion of the area where the conflicts take place. Already, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitri Medvedev pointed to this by saying that “There is no other option but to physically eliminate Zelensky”.[5]
Moreover, it is worth remembering that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has held the nuclear weapons card. As it is known, Russian decision makers make statements underlining that they may use nuclear weapons from time to time. However, the document titled “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence of the Russian Federation”, which was approved and entered into force on June 8, 2020, reveals the conditions under which the Moscow administration can use nuclear weapons, and these conditions did not occur until the UAV attack on the Kremlin. However, it is stated in the relevant document that nuclear weapons can be used in case of “an attack on Russia’s critical government or military facilities by a hostile state”.[6]
As can be understood, the drone attack targeting the Kremlin meets the critical government facility expression in the relevant document. This will cause Moscow’s rhetoric about using nuclear weapons to harden. Undoubtedly, the use of this trump is not only for the security of Ukraine; could lead to a major disaster for global security. In short, the said attack may bring Russia’s raising its hand in terms of nuclear weapons.
As a result, the UAV attack targeting the Kremlin on May 3, 2023, on news agencies opened up new scenarios for the future of the Russia-Ukraine War to be discussed. While the Moscow administration blamed Kiev for the attacks; Ukraine, on the other hand, argues that this event will be used as a tool to legitimize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although the possibility that the attack was carried out by insurgent groups in Russia and the negative image created by Russia’s vulnerability reveal a serious security weakness for Moscow, the process indicates that the Moscow administration may start operations targeting Kiev once again through the discourse of the fight against terrorism. Moreover, it can be said that in addition to the possibility of expanding the field of war, the showdown on the use of nuclear weapons will harden.
[1] “Russia Says Ukraine Tried to Kill Putin with Night-Time Drone Attack on Kremlin”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-attacked-kremlin-with-drones-failed-bid-kill-putin-ria-2023-05-03/, (Date of Accession: 04.05.2023).
[2] “Kyiv Denies Involvement in Alleged Kremlin Drone Attack”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/03/europe/ukraine-drone-attack-putin-kremlin-intl/index.html#:~:text=Russia%20claimed%20Ukraine%20launched%20an,and%20the%20alleged%20drones%20destroyed., (Date of Accession: 04.05.2023).
[3] “Rusya: ‘Ukrayna, İHA’larla Kremlin’i hedef aldı’”, İhlas Haber Ajansı, https://www.iha.com.tr/haber-rusya-ukrayna-ihalarla-kremlini-hedef-aldi-1167711/, (Date of Accession: 04.05.2023).
[4] “Kyiv Denies Involvement…”, a.g.m.
[5] “Russia Security Council Leader Condemns Drone Attack on Kremlin”, NDTV, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-security-council-leader-condemns-drone-attack-on-kremlin-4003229, (Date of Accession: 04.05.2023).
[6] Şafak Oğuz, “The Dangerous Dimension in the Russia-Ukraine War: The Nuclear Threat”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/the-dangerous-dimension-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-the-nuclear-threat/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 04.05.2023).
