Recently, Europe has frequently faced political instability and government crises. Disagreements within coalition governments in Germany, the risk of the government losing support in France’s parliament, and the rise of right-wing populist parties and coalition crises in the Netherlands have led to governance challenges in many European countries. Economic uncertainties, growing social unrest, and the rise of radical parties are shaking traditional political balances. In this context, Portugal has also experienced a political crisis, having lost the recent government vote of confidence and fallen. This development in the country is seen as a reflection of the broader instability in Europe.
Portugal is going through one of its most significant political instability periods since the Carnation Revolution of 1974.[1] In the last three years, the third government in Portugal has fallen after losing a vote of confidence. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro attempted to address allegations of conflicts of interest involving his family’s law firm by calling a vote of confidence to “clear up the uncertainty,” but the government was toppled due to the opposition parties uniting. The allegations regarding his family’s law firm’s business ties heightened the political tension. Thus, Portugal has entered one of its most unstable periods since adopting its democratic system.
During this period, political fragmentation and the fragile nature of coalition governments have played a decisive role in the country’s politics. According to Parliament Speaker José Pedro Aguiar-Branco, the center-right government, led by a two-party alliance, was rejected by the parliamentary majority. The government held only 80 seats in the 230-seat parliament, and with the opposition parties working together, the fall of the government became inevitable.[2]
Despite the initial polling advantage of Luís Montenegro’s conservative People’s Party, which won the 2024 elections and formed a coalition, recent developments have led the Socialist Party, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, to surpass them in polls. The major parties are reluctant to hold early elections due to potential public dissatisfaction with a government change.[3]Moreover, with the current government not even having completed a year in power and the uncertain international context, the decision for early elections has become even more complex. Nevertheless, Portugal is moving toward the elections in May.
The Prime Minister’s preference for appealing to the electorate rather than facing an investigation has been described as a “cowardly” move by the opposition leader.[4] Pedro Nuno Santos had made it clear from the beginning that he would not support any government vote of confidence, which made the government’s collapse inevitable.
The sudden resignation of former Prime Minister António Costa in 2023 due to a corruption investigation further triggered this instability. This crisis, which affects Portugal’s 10.6 million population, also impacts the country’s international position, as it is a NATO member.[5] The government’s weakness, while trying to manage the economic transformation process with EU funds, jeopardizes investment and reform processes, particularly at a time when over 22 billion euros in EU development funds are invested.
In this context, the rise of the far-right in Europe is also significant in Portugal. The Chega (Enough) party achieved its best result in history in the last elections, securing third place. This brings forward the critical question: “Will Portuguese democracy be able to maintain the distance between the far-right and the center-right?” It is emphasized that Chega could potentially become a key political actor, and the uncertainty remains as to whether the center-right parties will cooperate with this party. The center-right hopes that economic indicators, such as Portugal’s 1.9% GDP growth last year and an unemployment rate of 6.4% close to the EU average, will continue to support them.[6]
The increasing number of government crises in Europe can be explained by several key dynamics. First, political fragmentation is making governance more challenging in many countries. Traditional center-right and center-left parties are losing power, while far-right, far-left, and populist parties are rising. This situation hinders the formation of majority governments and makes it difficult to sustain governance through minority or fragile coalition governments. Second, social and economic uncertainties threaten the stability of governments. Increasing inflation, energy crises, waves of migration, and the war in Ukraine have created serious challenges for governments across Europe. Public sensitivity to economic hardships undermines trust in governments, triggering political crises. Third, the strain on institutional and democratic systems is contributing to political instability across Europe. In some countries, corruption scandals have caused governments to fall, while in others, the rise of populist parties and the radicalization of traditional parties are complicating democratic processes.
Recent government crises in countries like Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and now Portugal, are emblematic of this situation. These crises are also negatively affecting Europe’s global competitiveness and common policies. The EU’s decision-making processes are hampered by political uncertainties in member states. This situation seems difficult to resolve in the short term. However, political parties’ ability to develop a culture of compromise and form more inclusive government models could reduce instability in Europe. Otherwise, growing public distrust in the system could lead to the further strengthening of populist and extremist parties.
The political instability in Portugal can be seen as a reflection of broader trends across Europe. The loss of trust in traditional parties, the increasing distrust of voters in politics, and the “normalization” of frequent early elections are key components of this process.[7] In the country, traditional center-right and center-left parties are unable to secure a majority due to declining public support, while the rise of populist parties deepens political fragmentation. The collapse of the most recent government highlights both corruption allegations and the fragility of the weak coalition government. However, moving up the 2028 general elections could drastically alter the political landscape.
The rise of far-right parties like Chega is likely to strengthen populist rhetoric. While the country’s economic growth continues, political uncertainty could have adverse effects for the EU. This process will be critical for both Portugal’s domestic politics and its relations with the EU. Whether the newly formed government will be stable will play a key role in shaping Portugal’s economic and social policies. However, if political division continues, Portugal may inevitably be seen as one of the weaker governments in Europe.
[1] Helena Alves & Joseph Wilson, “What to know about the collapse of Portugal’s government”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/portugal-politics-government-collapse-elections-7d58c1ac7723cca96fc2b4f3ae542034, (Accessed: 14.03.2025).
[2] “Portugal faces third election in three years as government loses confidence vote”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/11/portugal-faces-third-election-in-three-years-as-government-loses-confidence-vote, (Accessed: 14.03.2025).
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Alison Roberts, “Portugal elections loom as PM loses confidence vote”, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgm1nzj2yvko, (Accessed: 14.03.2025).
[6] Barry Hatton, “Portugal is to hold an early election in May after minority government’s fall”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/portugal-government-early-election-6f41bf30ce32d6f911c33e623f48127d, (Accessed: 14.03.2025).
[7] Ibid.
