The Pacific Islands stand out economically and strategically due to their overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) with neighboring countries, their central position in maritime and air traffic, and the ongoing US-China rivalry in the region.[1] Polynesia represents one of the three major island groups in the Pacific. Like other countries in Polynesia, China is steadily deepening its relations with Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu. This development emerges as a particularly notable strategic move within the context of the China-US competition. In addition to existing regional collaborations and organizations, the Pacific Islands Forum, where Turkey is also a Dialogue Partner, plays a significant role in regional leadership and diplomacy. However, competition around this forum is intensifying. The relations of these three countries with China are of critical importance for Beijing, as they aim to balance the US influence in the region.
The colonial histories of the United States and some other countries in this region have contributed to its underdevelopment. Populations still suffer from health issues caused by nuclear and other weapon tests, while also grappling with the consequences of the climate crisis. China’s increasing diplomatic missions and expanding economic aid programs in the Pacific aim to weaken the US influence in the region. In response, the United States is stepping up its influence in the Pacific Islands through climate change assistance and security collaborations. Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu are attempting to implement balancing policies between these two major powers.
The United States initially underestimated China’s influence in the region, but after China began to increase its presence, the US shifted its focus to the region from 2010 onward. By 2018, the countries that saw the most significant economic investments from China, thereby expanding its sphere of influence, were the Cook Islands, Samoa, and Tonga.[2] Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu, located in the western part of Polynesia, have become key stages in the China-US rivalry, despite being small island nations in the Pacific. Recent developments in this context are also noteworthy.
Samoa has maintained friendly relations with China for a long time. On November 26, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Samoa’s Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa met and emphasized their friendly ties through various statements.[3] China provides Samoa with significant assistance, including infrastructure projects and healthcare services. These aids from China support Samoa’s economic development while simultaneously increasing the country’s dependence on Beijing.
Countries like the United States and Australia are concerned about China using its economic aid as a tool for strategic influence. Samoa has become an important diplomatic partner for China, particularly as Beijing seeks to balance the US presence in the South Pacific.[4] While strengthening its economic development projects with Samoa, China continues to expand its diplomatic relations to limit the US influence in the region. Samoa, while receiving financial support from China, also demonstrates openness to security-focused cooperation with the United States. At the same time, it can be said that Samoa is pursuing a balancing policy by coordinating strategies with US allies in the region.
Tonga’s relations with China have largely been shaped by economic support and infrastructure investments.[5] In return, China strengthens its diplomatic ties with the country by offering grants and public projects. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are working on new strategies to strengthen political relations with Tonga’s leadership. The US offers Tonga climate change assistance and military cooperation proposals. Tonga also seeks to balance China’s economic influence by collaborating with Australia and New Zealand. However, despite these efforts, the United States is still unable to prevent China’s investments from putting it at an economic disadvantage.
Finally, Tuvalu is clearly an important actor in the China-Taiwan struggle. Tuvalu remains one of the few countries that officially recognizes Taiwan. Tuvalu’s long-standing friendly relations with Taiwan have become a factor that complicates China’s efforts to draw Tuvalu to its side through economic and diplomatic means. On the other hand, Tuvalu’s need for international support in the fight against climate change has led the country to adopt a more cautious policy toward China. The United States has observed this situation and seems to position Tuvalu as a supporter of Taiwan, attempting to use it as an advantage against China.[6]
Recently, the strategic importance of Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu in the context of the China-US rivalry has increased due to the influence of great powers in the Pacific. Developments in these countries indicate that the region has become the center of geopolitical conflict. The 2024 Pacific Islands Forum held in Tonga highlighted China’s efforts to increase its influence and the counteractions by the United States. China’s aim to achieve “Development Partner” status for Taiwan at the Pacific Islands Forum clearly demonstrates Beijing’s strategy to enhance its diplomatic influence in the region, while the United States and its allies defending Taiwan’s participation signal their intention to resist China.[7] Such tensions at the forum confirm that the region has become a front line in the US-China competition.
China’s stance at the forum indicates that the number of Beijing-friendly countries in the Pacific Islands may increase. On the other hand, US allies and countries like Tuvalu, which recognizes Taiwan, are using the support they receive from the US to strengthen their diplomatic positions. Indeed, Taiwan has extended its Development Partnership Agreement with the Pacific Islands until 2027. Support in areas such as agriculture, education, and healthcare ensures that Taiwan is viewed as a permanent ally in the region.[8] However, it is likely that China’s diplomatic pressures will continue to challenge these ties in the Pacific.
Like other Pacific regions, Polynesia has become a significant arena for the US-China struggle for influence. The economic vulnerabilities of these countries, the threats posed by climate change, and their geopolitical positions suggest that this rivalry will continue. This dynamic in the region reflects not only a regional but also a global power struggle. These small nations are emerging as a platform that shapes the strategic interests of superpowers, determining how economic and diplomatic support will be reciprocated in the region. These developments further enhance the international importance of Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu. China’s efforts to increase its influence in the region through economic aid and infrastructure investments are closely monitored by the US. Meanwhile, small countries like Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu will strive to maximize their own interests in this power struggle.
[1] Pöllath, M., “Revisiting island decolonization: The pursuit of self-government in Pacific island polities under US hegemony”, Island Studies Journal, https://islandstudiesjournal.org/article/83921, (Access Date: 16.12.2024).
[2] Mermer, C. T., “Küresel Rekabet Penceresinden Pasifik Adaları”, TASAM, https://tasam.org/tr-tr/Icerik/70146/kuresel_rekabet_penceresinden_pasifik_adalari, (Access Date: 16.12.2024).
[3] “Xi meets Samoan PM, says China prioritizes empowering Pacific Island countries to tackle climate change”, China Daily, http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2024-11/27/c_1048445.htm, (Access Date: 16.12.2024).
[4] Peake, G., Pohle, C., & Scabell, A., “At Pacific Islands Forum, tensions flare over Taiwan, geopolitics and climate”, United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/pacific-islands-forum-tensions-flare-over-taiwan-geopolitics-and-climate, (Access Date: 16.12.2024).
[5] Peake, G., & Pohle, C., “Financially weak Pacific Island States are vulnerable to China”, United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/01/financially-weak-pacific-island-states-are-vulnerable-china,
(Access Date: 16.12.2024).
[6] Ibid.
[7] Stone, J., “太平洋岛国论坛凸显美中竞争”, VOA, https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-rivalry-on-display-at-gathering-of-pacific-islands-leaders-20240905/7773168.html, (Access Date:16.12.2024).
[8] Ibid.
