On April 22, 2024, Poland announced its readiness to start negotiations with the United States of America (USA) on hosting nuclear weapons in order to strengthen the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).[1]
Noting that Russia is increasingly militarizing Kaliningrad and has recently shifted its nuclear weapons to Belarus, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that talks with the United States on the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country are ongoing. During his visit to Washington in mid-April 2024, Duda met with US Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump as well as White House officials. The Polish President reiterated his commitment to increase defense spending to 4% of GDP.
Poland’s close defense ties with both the US and the UK make it an important partner in the West’s fight against Russia. To reiterate this support, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Warsaw on April 22, 2024 to meet with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In his statement, Mr. Sunak warned:[2]
“Defending Ukraine against Russia’s brutal ambitions is vital for our security and for all of Europe. Russia will not stop at the Polish border if Putin is allowed to succeed in this aggressive war.”
The intensive military support of both the US and the UK to Poland could lead to the country becoming a front line in a possible NATO-Russia war. Indeed, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has stated that Russia would take the necessary measures to ensure its security if Poland deploys nuclear weapons.[3] Peskov said that the Russian military will analyze the situation if such an action is implemented, “In any case, I think they will take all necessary intervention steps to guarantee our security.”.[4]
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued a clear warning that Europe has entered the “pre-war period” and that no one in Europe will feel safe if Ukraine is defeated by Russia.[5] “Really any scenario is possible,” Tusk said:[6]
“I don’t want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a thing of the past. Mentally we have to get used to a new era. We are in a pre-war period. I’m not exaggerating, it’s becoming more and more obvious every day.”
Countries such as Poland, the Baltic states and the UK are constantly warning about the growing risk of war from Russia to Europe. As a reminder, in the run-up to the Second World War, Poland was the center stage of the conflict between the Allies and the Axis powers, both politically and militarily. Poland’s partnerships, especially with Britain, led it to be dragged further into the war. It can be said that a similar situation is unfolding today. In February 2022, as Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine, Poland formed a tripartite defense alliance with both Ukraine and Britain. Today, the two countries stand out as the allied states that provide the greatest support to Ukraine’s war against Russia.
Before Tusk, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps made similar warnings in a speech in January 2024, arguing that the alliance was facing a “pre-war world”. On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied that he intends to “go to war with NATO” if the war in Ukraine ends in a Russian victory. However, Putin and other Russian officials have strategically concealed this intention even in the weeks immediately preceding the attack on Ukraine in 2022. Putin’s statements are therefore no comfort to Central and Eastern European leaders. Nevertheless, an important question arises here. Can Russia challenge NATO?
In response, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, speaking at the Hudson Institute, commented:[7]
“We are more technologically advanced, more prepared, better trained… Russia is fighting a real war right now, it is building this army and it expects us to be prepared politically, not militarily.”
Tusk likewise emphasizes that European leaders should adopt a tougher stance, especially politically. In short, it is crucial for Europe to psychologically prepare itself for this war. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez asked EU leaders to stop using the word “war”, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that war in Europe’s own neighborhood is no longer an abstract idea.
As the debate on war with Russia continues, it is questionable how politico-psychologically prepared Europe is for it. While the voices of “war” are raised in Europe, the success of Ukraine’s struggle against Russia is another topic of debate. Almost the entire West has come to accept the fact that the counter-offensive launched by the Ukrainian Army in June 2023 ended in failure.
If Russia creates other crisis areas in its immediate neighborhood after Ukraine, it will be another blow to US interests. Europe, on the other hand, is struggling to create political unity within itself. In this sense, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that the situation in Europe resembles the pre-World War II conjuncture. If Poland turns into a “nuclear base” for the West, this would open the door to a possible NATO-Russia war.
[1] “Poland ‘ready’ to host nuclear weapons, Polish president says”, Euractiv, https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/poland-ready-to-host-nuclear-weapons-polish-president-says/, (Date of Access: 23.04.2024).
[2] “Poland ready to host US nukes on Putin’s doorstep as Nato and Russia heading for nuclear showdown”, GB News, https://www.gbnews.com/news/world/poland-ready-to-host-us-nukes-on-russian-doorstep, (Date of Access: 23.04.2024).
[3] “Kremlin warns against potential nuclear deployment in Poland”, Social News, https://www.socialnews.xyz/2024/04/22/kremlin-warns-against-potential-nuclear-deployment-in-poland/, (Date of Access: 23.04.2024).
[4] Ibid.
[5] “If Ukraine is defeated, no one in Europe is safe, warns Tusk”, MSN, https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/if-ukraine-is-defeated-no-one-in-europe-is-safe-warns-tusk/ar-BB1kMa1Q, (Date of Access: 23.04.2024).
[6] “NATO allies: War with Russia could come ‘very soon’”, Washington Examiner, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign-policy/2945273/nato-allies-war-with-russia-soon/, (Date of Access: 23.04.2024).
[7] Ibid.
