The Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office, in the statement made on July 9, 2024, announced that Afghan refugees with registration certificates can stay in Pakistan until July 30, 2025.[1] According to the data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in March 2024, there are more than 3 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan, and more than 800,000 unregistered refugees. Despite decisions being made on this issue, the problem still persists. After June 2025, the future of 1.45 million registered Afghan refugees or other registered Afghans will continue to be a topic of debate.
To explain the background of the incident, in October 2023, Pakistan announced that undocumented Afghans were under threat of being expelled or deported. Islamabad claimed that 14 out of 24 major terrorist attacks in the country in 2023 were carried out by Afghan citizens. Amid the worsening humanitarian situation, pressures on Afghan refugees increased. The government imposed new movement restrictions and accelerated detention and deportation processes. Thousands of Afghans, including women and children, were imprisoned for overstaying their visas or lacking documents. Despite the high number of refugees, there was a significant delay in the processing of asylum requests by UNHCR, leaving many in legal uncertainty and exposed to police harassment. The Pakistani government and UNHCR were criticized for failing to address the challenges faced by refugees.[2] With this decision, both parties tried to alleviate the pressure to some extent.
In this context, it will be helpful to examine this complex situation from various perspectives and parties. This review will be conducted through the lenses of the international community, domestic politics and security, the current situation in Afghanistan, and the condition of the refugees.
Firstly, Pakistan’s decision has been both welcomed and criticized by the international community. Human rights organizations have called for definite orders to ensure long-term security. The UNHCR is pleased that a step has been taken on this issue. Although the pressure has been somewhat alleviated, it still persists because Pakistan is very determined to send the refugees back home. Pakistan’s decision significantly impacts both its domestic politics and foreign policy due to hosting nearly 4 million Afghan refugees. As a result, human rights organizations remain on edge, concerned about potential negative developments. Other countries are approaching Pakistan’s decisions more cautiously to avoid another wave of refugees.
When we look at domestic politics, one of the main reasons Pakistan delayed making this decision is security. Claims that 14 out of 24 major terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2023 were carried out by Afghans highlight their position on the need for refugees to return to their country as soon as possible. This stance is reflected not only in politics but also among the public. Populist thinking has surpassed political rhetoric and is now widely discussed on the streets. Economic factors are also considered after security. In a country with 3 million registered refugees, it is clear that economic balances have shifted, and spending has increased. Even with funds, the changing structure creates unrest. Despite pressures, Pakistan maintains its stance. The reason they haven’t taken more extreme measures might be to keep the pressure at a certain level. The recent decision to extend the stay might be related to this.
If we accept that refugees will not be sent to countries other than Afghanistan, the only remaining solution is their return to Afghanistan, which is the approach Pakistan is following. The Taliban government in Afghanistan has condemned the deportation plan and requested Islamabad to reconsider it.[3] Afghan authorities have criticized Pakistan’s policy by demanding that the return of Afghan migrants deported by Pakistan be ensured in accordance with international laws. They emphasized the need for better coordination and highlighted the importance of considering the situation in Afghanistan.[4] This shows that the issue has also become complicated from Afghanistan’s perspective. The fact that the return destination is Afghanistan, the country’s current situation, and the statements made by the Taliban on this issue bring the matter to a different dimension.
In short, the situation of Afghan refugees remains uncertain and complex. There are 3 million registered and 800,000 unregistered Afghan refugees in Pakistan. A strict policy is being followed for the unregistered ones, leading to their deportation. However, the situation is very different for the 3 million registered refugees. This group is divided into those with registration certificates and those without. The registration certificate grants them many rights, such as access to education and healthcare. Those with these rights have been given another year, but there is no indication of what will happen next year. What complicates matters further is the deportation of those without registration certificates to Afghanistan. In this case, a family member with a certificate is allowed to stay, while other family members are forced to return to their country. Thus, even the granted rights operate in a complicated manner, and the situation becomes a deadlock. The decision presented as a solution creates new problems.
As a result, this decision is the outcome of an intention to somewhat alleviate internal and external pressures. However, this step has further complicated the situation, which already contains various difficulties. While Pakistan appears to have provided a short-term solution by extending the stay of registered Afghan refugees for another year, it has postponed the resolution of the problem in the long term. This temporary measure does not fully address security and humanitarian concerns for both the international community and the refugees. Particularly, the lack of a clear plan for the 1.45 million registered refugees after one year renders their future uncertain. Continued harsh policies like the forced deportation of unregistered refugees contribute to family separations and increased social tensions. Therefore, while extending the process for another year offers short-term relief, it underscores the urgent need for a long-term and sustainable solution. This urgency necessitates a deeper and more comprehensive approach by the international community and all relevant parties involved.
[1] “UNHCR calls for greater efforts towards longer-term solutions for Afghans in Pakistan”, UNHCR, https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-calls-greater-efforts-towards-longer-term-solutions-afghans-pakistan, (Date of Access: 12.07.2024).
[2] “Pakistan steps up crackdown on Afghan refugees, adds new restrictions”, The New Humanitarian, https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2023/03/23/pakistan-crackdown-afghan-refugees, (Date of Access: 12.07.2024).
[3] “Pakistan Extends Stay of 1.4 Million Registered Afghan Refugees”, VOA, https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-extends-stay-of-1-4-million-registered-afghan-refugees/7350281.html, (Date of Access: 12.07.2024).
[4] “Taliban: Pakistan, Iran expelled over 400,000 Afghan refugees so far in 2024”, VOA, https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-pakistan-iran-expelled-over-400-000-afghan-refugees-so-far-in-2024/7650196.html, (Date of Access: 12.07.2024).
