In the beginning of 2024 North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un, declared that peaceful unification with South Korea is not possible anymore. In the speech he gave in North Korea Parliament’s High Peoples Assembly, He said that North Korean Constitution should be changed in way that South Korea will be showed as the primary enemy and unchanged main enemy.[1] Relations between Koreas become more tense with North Korea getting closer with Russia. This situation can be attributed to Pyongyang giving more direct and strong messages in its discourses.
Following this, at the end of January 2024, South Korea stated that they would not change their decades-old unification policy due to Kim Jong-un’s negative attitude towards them. In the unification plan that was created in 1994 it is underlined that “it cannot be changed with government’s decision”. However, due to Pyongyang’s hostile expressions, South Korean Media reported that government is planning to take concepts such as “Korea Community” expression which was the basis of unification policy in last 30 years, out.[2]
By February, the largest South Korean civil organization pushing for reunification had disbanded and created new targets in response to North Korea’s decision to abandon the goal of reunification. This is a sign of how the policy change is affecting pro-North Korea groups in the South.[3] In addition, during the Supreme People’s Assembly of North Korea to be held in April 2024, there are plans to revise the constitution with proposed amendments aimed at abandoning the “One Korea Policy” that the country has put forward for decades and redefining itself as an independent socialist state.[4] . By emphasizing that South Korea is the “most hostile state” and the “primary enemy,” North Korea may intensify its surveillance apparatus and tighten controls on the population in order to erase the concepts of kinship, reconciliation, and unification from the collective consciousness. Ultimately, the change in the vision of inter-Korean unification makes reconciliation between the two countries difficult.
In early March, the South Korean Presidential Office announced that the Yoon Suk Yeol Government plans to prepare a new vision of unification with North Korea, including the principle of liberal democracy. He emphasized the importance of updating the unification formula to better embody the government’s plan for “unification based on liberal democracy” in which all North Koreans can enjoy freedom and prosperity.[5] If this event occurs, it would be the first revision of the National Community Unification Formula, South Korea’s unification policy announced under the administration of the late President Kim Young-sam in August 1994.
South Korean President Yoon made statements about this issue in his speech on the 105th anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement against Japan’s 1910-45 colonial occupation. “Unification is exactly what is needed to expand universal values such as freedom and human rights,” Yoon said. He used the expressions. He added that he hoped that unification efforts would be a source of hope and a beacon of light for the North Korean people.[6] To address the importance of this issue, they decided to designate July 14 as North Korean Refugees Day.
On March 3, 2024, South Korea’s first military spy satellite successfully transmitted “good resolution” images of central Pyongyang following its launch in December. With the domestic satellite entering the full mission phase, South Korea’s heavy dependence on US satellite images will decrease. This could increase Seoul’s independent monitoring capabilities of Pyongyang.[7] In this way, Seoul will be better prepared against Pyongyang’s activities and possible threats.
It can be observed that South Korea responded more cautiously at first and then gave more open answers to Kim’s statements. The closest example of this is that Seoul wants the unification plan to be carried out within the framework of liberal democracy values. Yoon’s emphasis on the partnership with Japan in his statement on Independence Day may suggest that the country is in the process of a new initiative in foreign policy.
Both Pyongyang and Seoul see unification as a long-term goal. However, the methods considered will offer a completely different future for the Korean Peninsula. This situation shows that which side will have a say for the Korean people will probably be achieved through force. Considering the current situation, it is currently unlikely that North Korea will launch a pre-planned, all-out war against South Korea. Because such a war would mean suicide for Pyongyang and bring the end of its regime.
Moreover, today’s North Korean economy cannot afford to sustain an all-out war. On the other hand, North Korea’s military actions continue in areas close to the border line. This situation may have been planned to make the people of the South uneasy. An accidental military conflict could occur due to the unusually high levels of military preparedness and tensions between the two Koreas, as well as preventive doctrines.
[1] Bong-geun Jun, “North Korea Has Lost the ‘Unification Competition’”, The United States Institute of Peace, https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/02/north-korea-has-lost-unification-competition, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[2] “S. Korea Says N. Korean Leader Kim’s Hostile Rhetoric Will Not Affect Gov’t Blueprint On Unification”, The Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/03/103_367463.html, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[3] Jeongmin Kim, “ROK Pro-Unification Group Disbands in Response To North Korea Policy Changes”, NK NEWS, https://www.nknews.org/2024/02/rok-pro-unification-group-disbands-in-response-to-north-korea-policy-changes/, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[4] Chun Sig Kim, “Decoding North Korea’s Changing Policies: A South Korean Perspective”, 38 North, https://www.38north.org/2024/02/decoding-north-koreas-changing-policies-a-south-korean-perspective/, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[5] “S. Korea to update unification vision for 1st time in 30 years”, The Korea Herald, https://m.koreaherald.com/amp/view.php?ud=20240301050208, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[6] Jun Ji-hye, “Yoon calls for unification to fulfill March 1 Independence Movement”, The Korea Times, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/03/113_369832.htm, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
[7] Park Boram, “S. Korea’s 1st spy satellite transmits ‘good-resolution’ images of central Pyongyang”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240303000500315?section=nk/nk, (Date of Accesion: 03.03.2024).
