Since the beginning of this year, North Korea has said that they were planning a fleet of satellites to monitor the movements of the United States’ (US) and South Korea’s troops , and finally has succeeded in its third attempt to place a military spy satellite into orbit. On 21st of November, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced that the reconnaissance satellite named Malligyong-1 was launched from the launch site in Tongchang-ri with the new type Chollima-1 rocket.
The day after the launch, North Korea said that it has successfully placed a spy satellite into orbit and will launch several more satellites “in a short span of time” to secure its reconnaissance capabilities against South Korea.[1] It has been remarked that Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia was also influential behind this launch. Whereas, such launches are banned under UN Security Council sanctions designed to curb nuclear-armed North Korea’s ballistic missile programme, and it was swiftly condemned by South Korea, Japan, the US and the United Nations.[2]
The Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) was signed at the Summit in 2018 between North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un and Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in as part of an attempt to reduce tensions on the peninsula and build trust between the two countries. However, North Korea has increased security measures on the border with South Korea after the launch of the spy satellite. In this regard, Pyongyang took action when Seoul vowed to increase intelligence and surveillance along the demilitarized zone (DMZ).
North Korea’s Defense Ministry said that its army will “never be bound” by the military agreement, vowing to deploy “more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware in the region along the Military Demarcation Line,” according to KCNA.[3] Leif-Eric Easley, Professor of International Studies at the Ewha Womans University in Seoul, emphasized that risks would likely increase as a result of canceling the agreement. “Seoul’s military intelligence and operational readiness were not seriously hampered by the CMA, and without the agreement, North Korea may be less restrained about its weapons deployments and maneuvers near the DMZ, which could increase the risks of miscalculation and conflict escalation on the Korean Peninsula,”[4] according to Prof. Easley.
North Korea argues that the launch of the spy satellite is for security purposes. According to them, the increasing military cooperation of the US-South Korea-Japan alliance poses a threat to the country’s defense. Thus, the Pyongyang administration denounced that the United States’ potential sale of missiles to Japan and South Korea, calling it a dangerous act that raises tension in the region and brings a new arms race.[5] North Korea, which said it would display “more aggressive and overwhelming capabilities,” citing what it called “military threats” from the United States and its allies, carried out a successful satellite launch in the following days.
A few days later, the South Korean Army announced that it was organizing joint naval exercises with Japan and the USA in international waters near Jeju Island. They announced that the three countries carried out the exercise to bolster their close cooperation and operational capabilities amid North Korea’s rising nuclear and missile threats.[6] North Korea’s willingness to use nuclear weapons has also reached an alarming level. In September of this year, North Korea’s nuclear force policy was enacted in a law that specifies defensive objectives and conditions for preemptive nuclear strikes. The law states that a nuclear strike will be automatically initiated if the leadership, including Kim Jong Un, is believed to be in danger. Particularly alarming is the potential use of nuclear weapons due to misperception and misjudgment.[7]
Images from spy satellites may cause a real war to start in the near future and these images can also be cited as a reason to end the agreement with South Korea. Furthermore, the recent China-Russia talks may also have an impact on the increasing tension in the region. However, China’s economic need for South Korea, Japan and the USA should not be underestimated. It could be thought that China would pursue stronger political policies if there were alternatives to its economic relations with these countries.
In the long term, increasing military tensions in Northeast Asia due to North Korea’s armed provocation will pose an obstacle to China’s cooperation with the international community. The United States will strengthen its massive containment network against the China-Russia-North Korea coalition in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent Pyongyang’s military provocations. Particularly, China could find itself isolated, with its economic growth engine potentially stalling, especially as NATO’s Asia expansion theory gains momentum and China-U.S. hegemonic competition intensifies. [8] In addition, it should be taken into consideration that the ongoing wars in both the Middle East and Europe trigger global political tension.
It should be noted that North Korea’s dependence on China and Russia narrows the range of action of Kim Jong-un’s military capacity, too. Although China is defined as a powerful state on the world stage, it is not possible for it to be deprived of the global supply chain solely for political reasons. As a matter of fact, at the China-Japan-South Korea meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that he wanted to help denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Accordingly, the presence of nuclear weapons on the peninsula also poses a major threat to China.
Threats from North Korea increase the importance of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. In this context, Japan is increasing its spending on defense. Bu durum, Tokyo hükümeti ve Japon This situation is evaluated differently by the Tokyo government and the Japanese people. According to the majority of the public, the threat from North Korea has been ongoing for a long time but increasing military expenditures is against the pacifist and peaceful nature of the country. Japan’s development of military and political relations, especially with the USA, strengthens the country’s economic relations with the West. On the other hand, this situation also limits Japan’s rapprochement with China.
[1] Song Sangho, “(3rd LD) N. Korea Says It Successfully Placed Spy Satellite into Orbit, Will Launch More”, Yonhap News Agency, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231121010054315?section=nk/nk, (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[2] “North Korea Suspends Seoul Military Agreement, Restores Troops at Border”, Aljazeera News, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/23/north-korea-suspends-seoul-military-agreement-restores-troops-at-border, (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[3] Brad Lendon-Gawon Bae, “North Korea to Deploy ‘New’ Weapons on Border with South Korea”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/23/asia/north-korea-weapons-south-korea-border-intl-hnk-ml/index.html, (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[4] “North Korea Suspends Seoul Military Agreement, Restores Troops at Border”, a.g.e., (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[5] “North Korea Criticizes Potential Sale of U.S. Missiles to Japan, South Korea”, The Asahi Shimbun, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15061772, (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[6] “Japan, US, S. Korea Stage Joint Drills Amid N.Korea’s Nuclear And Missile Threats”, NHK World-Japan, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20231127_01/ , (Date of Access: 26.11.2023)
[7] Lee Minyong, “China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/china-ignores-north-koreas-provocations-at-its-own-risk/, (Date of Access: 26.11.2023).
[8] Same source.
