On 1 March 2024, Turkmenistan and Türkiye signed two preliminary agreements aimed at strengthening cooperation in the natural gas sector. These agreements were signed during the meeting between Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkmenistan’s National Leader and Chairman of the People’s Assembly Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. The Antalya Diplomacy Forum, which attracted representatives from 147 states, including heads of state, ministers and international delegates, focused on the theme “Elevating Diplomacy in the Midst of Crises”. Among the topics of discussion were global challenges, climate change, migration, Islamophobia, trade wars and artificial intelligence.[1]
These agreements, consisting of a memorandum of understanding and a letter of intent, underline Turkmenistan’s commitment to supply natural gas to Türkiye for transit to European markets. Türkiye’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar emphasised the importance of these agreements and expressed his willingness to facilitate the transit of Turkmen gas to global markets.
Speaking on a panel at the forum Berdimuhamedov announced that Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field has significant gas reserves, estimated at 27 trillion cubic metres by international auditing standards. Berdimuhamedov emphasised his country’s strategy to diversify the export routes of its gas reserves, taking advantage of its position as the state with the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world.
Türkiye, which already receives natural gas from various sources such as Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, both through pipelines and in liquefied form, stands to gain significantly from this cooperation. Moreover, Türkiye’s emergence as a natural gas producer offshore the Black Sea further enhances its energy portfolio. Berdimuhamedov outlined potential routes for Turkmen gas to reach Türkiye and Europe, including transport via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan once a maritime border agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan is reached. Alternatively, gas could be transported through Iran’s existing pipeline infrastructure through a gas swap agreement.
Capitalising on its strategic position as one of the states with the world’s largest gas reserves, Turkmenistan is seeking to take advantage of Türkiye’s established energy infrastructure to access global markets. For Türkiye, already a major energy consumer, these agreements offer additional security and diversity to its energy supply. Existing gas supplies from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, as well as Turkmen gas, are a valuable addition to Türkiye’s energy portfolio. In addition, recent developments in Türkiye’s offshore gas exploration in the Black Sea further enhance its energy self-sufficiency.
These agreements represent an important step in strengthening energy cooperation between Turkmenistan and Türkiye and position Ankara as a potentially important “regional energy hub”.
The potential routes for Turkmen gas to reach Türkiye and Europe show how complex the geopolitical considerations are. The options, including transport via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan or through Iran’s pipeline infrastructure, reflect the complex regional dynamics and the need for diplomatic agreements to facilitate gas transit.
The European Union (EU) is strategically shifting away from dependence on Russian gas supplies, particularly as a result of geopolitical tensions escalated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Seeking to diversify its energy sources, the EU signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Azerbaijan, aiming to double its gas imports from the South Caucasus region. This step is part of the EU’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Moscow for energy supplies.
The agreement with Azerbaijan has several benefits for other stakeholders. Türkiye will strengthen its position as an important gas hub and advance its geopolitical objectives. At the same time, the EU strengthens its position in negotiations with Russia and reduces its vulnerability to supply disruptions. For Turkmenistan, the deal offers an opportunity to gain more influence in regional power dynamics, especially vis-à-vis Russia and China.
A senior Azerbaijani official expressed his enthusiasm for the deal, confirming their readiness to facilitate the transit of Turkmen gas through existing pipeline infrastructure to reach Türkiye and potentially European markets.[2] However, the realisation of this plan depends on the finalisation of an agreement on the Caspian Sea bed, which is crucial for transit routes.
As energy expert Prof Brenda Shaffer points out, the landscape of Central Asian gas exports is undergoing significant changes following Russia’s actions in Ukraine.[3] Previously, Central Asian producers, particularly Turkmenistan, faced obstacles such as Russia’s dominance in European gas markets and the fear of being penalised if they sought alternative export routes. Today, however, with Russia’s focus on China as the primary market for gas, there are no obstacles to the export of Central Asian gas to the West.
Russia’s shift towards China is pushing Turkmenistan to seek diversification in its export markets. Consequently, there is a convergence of interests among regional actors to explore alternative gas routes that reshape the geographical calculations of energy flows in the Eurasian region.[4]
The EU’s strategic shift away from Russian natural gas is an important move with far-reaching implications for energy security and geopolitical dynamics in the region. The Memorandum of Understanding signed with Azerbaijan to increase gas imports from the South Caucasus is an important step towards diversifying Europe’s energy sources and reducing dependence on Russia.
With this agreement, which is in line with Türkiye’s geopolitical objectives and enhances its strategic position in regional energy dynamics, Ankara will stand out as an “important energy centre”.
Turkmenistan’s openness to diversify its export markets reflects a larger shift in Central Asian energy strategies with Russia’s focus on the Chinese market. Ultimately, natural gas cooperation between Turkmenistan and Türkiye triggers a significant shift in regional energy dynamics and strengthens Türkiye as a potential energy hub against the EU.
[1] “Turkiye, Turkmenistan sign MoU for gas transport”, Xinhua, https://english.news.cn/20240301/114d70e3769e4fedb065d16850c9a768/c.html, (Date of Acces: 03.03.2024).
[2] “Turkmenistan signs gas deal with Turkey, eyeing European sales”, NikkeiAsia, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Turkmenistan-signs-gas-deal-with-Turkey-eyeing-European-sales, (Date of Acces: 03.03.2024).
[3] Same place.
[4] Same place.
