Russia objects to the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) not only in Europe but also in the Asia-Pacific. According to the “indivisible security principle” advocated by Moscow; a state should not jeopardize the security of others at the expense of its own security. In this context, Russia interprets NATO’s action at the expense of its own security as a threat to its national security. NATO’s new partnerships with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand may lead to the spread of polarization from Europe to the Asia-Pacific.
As a reminder, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that the West had detached the Indo-Pacific concept from its original context and is trying to associate NATO with the Indo-Pacific by adding a new meaning to it.[i] In recent years, it has been well-known that Russia is particularly unsettled by the Indo-Pacific concept and India’s membership in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).The choices made by India, which is a “non-shareable actor” between the West and Russia, play a critical role in the future of Asia.
Until today, India has managed to maintain its non-alignment policy in foreign affairs despite all the efforts of the West. Initially, the West tried to target Russia. However, New Delhi has no great reason to perceive a threat from Moscow. On the contrary, it is significantly dependent on Moscow for defense and energy resources. Therefore, in the context of India, the “China factor” has become a more useful argument for the West. In this framework, the U.S. is trying to provide security support to India against China. Meanwhile, New Delhi believes that it can protect its national security against Beijing. For this reason, India is more distant from cooperation with NATO compared to the other four Western actors listed above.
Russia targets both India and China with the threat of “NATO”. More clearly, Russia is attempting to attract these two actors to its side by suggesting that the Western bloc’s policies could lead to a war between China and India. Moscow’s broader goal here is to unite Asian actors among themselves. In other words, NATO’s increasing presence in the region can pave the way for Asian actors to form a strong alliance. Here, Moscow is the actor that warns the countries in the region against the “Western threat” and enables them to come together against this threat. Russia wants China and India to fight together against the West, just as it does. “Western imperialism” is the key factor that brings these three actors together and binds them.
The U.S. threatens its allies around the world, especially its friendly-allied countries in the Asia Pacific region, with potential new crises that may arise in the region. We see similar pressures from America on European countries. Europe’s dependence on the U.S. has increased due to the war in Ukraine. Recently, many European countries have entered a period in which they cannot make independent decisions from the U.S. on issues such as Russia and China. Similar pressures exist on India. Still, India is trying to follow its own line in foreign policy under the name of strategic autonomy. Despite this, India has to get support from the West in its conflict with China. As a matter of fact, China has increased its presence in the Indian Ocean in the context of its relations with Sri Lanka and the Maldives in recent months. India may want to establish a presence in the South China Sea to retaliate. But for this, India will need more cooperation and coordination with the U.S. and its allies. In short, it is not possible for India to properly resist China without the US. New Delhi’s only solution is to stay away from conflict with China and, if possible, maintain positive relations with it.
Russia is concerned about the pressure the U.S. is applying on India, South Korea, Japan and other regional allies. Because these steps of U.S. always involve the risk of conflict, Russia calls on the countries in the region to remain neutral, especially against China, and not to engage in provocations. Because the next stage of QUAD may be the establishment of a collective defense organization in the Pacific. Americans suggest that the North Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (NAIPTO) could be established in the region for this purpose.[ii] In my personal opinion, the U.S. will likely want to include Japan, India, Australia, the UK and other regional actors in this alliance. However, it does not seem possible for India to respond positively to this. In order to turn New Delhi’s views into positive ones, the U.S. may want to confront it with “more” and “larger” crises in its immediate vicinity.
As Europe looks to contribute more to the security of the Indo-Pacific in the coming period, the U.S. might propose the establishment of a defense pact. However, this defense alliance is still in the conceptual phase, and no official statements have been made in this direction yet. Because this organization will also cause China to become more dependent on Russia. Russia is currently struggling with NATO. If a new defense pact called NAIPTO is established in Asia under the leadership of the U.S., the target of this organization will undoubtedly be China. Thus, China will also fight against NAIPTO. Thus, Russia and China will have to share power against their rivals. Russia will oppose these plans that will reduce China’s support for it and distract its attention. The most important trump card that Russia has to thwart this plan of the West is India. If New Delhi shows solidarity with Beijing, all of the West strategies will also be thwarted.
[i] “Nato Making ‘Overtures’ to India to Create ‘Additional Problems’ with China: Russia’s Sergei Lavrov”, India Today, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/nato-making-overtures-india-create-additional-problems-china-russia-sergei-lavrov-2323936-2023-01-20, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
[ii] “NAIPTO-Toward a Eurasian, Transoceanic Multilateral Collective Defense Alliance”, Hudson, https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/naipto-toward-a-eurasian-transoceanic-multilateral-collective-defense-alliance, (Date of Access: 25.07.2024).
