The tension between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)/United States (US) and Russia, especially the threat of nuclear war, continues to manifest itself in different formats day by day. Recent developments in nuclear weapons and missile defense systems reveal how dangerous the new security environment is becoming. For instance, during the Ukraine War, Russia threatened to target the UK and France with SARMAT missiles for providing weapons aid to Kiev. Many Russian officials, including Medvedev, have openly stated that they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons to ensure the country’s national security. The expiration of key agreements on nuclear weapons between the US and Russia has provided the opportunity for both weapon development and the deployment of these weapons in many regions around the world, especially in Europe.
Indeed, a news article published in the British press claims that the United States is planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to the UK in light of the increasing “Russian threat.” The news has not been denied by the British Ministry of Defense. According to the report, it is planned to deploy B-61 tactical nuclear weapons, three times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, to the United Kingdom’s territory.[1] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed that they are closely monitoring the developments. He emphasized that Russia considers American, British, and French nuclear weapons in Europe to be in the same category.[2]
The United States has tactical nuclear weapons deployed in five European countries within the framework of NATO. It is estimated that there are approximately 180-200 of these weapons in Turkey, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. The process began with the deployment of the first tactical nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom in 1954 during the Cold War and later continued with Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, Greece, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The number of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, estimated to have reached 7,000 during the Cold War, has decreased over time. Withdrawals from France, the United Kingdom, and Greece, along with reductions in other countries, have brought the estimated count down to around 180-200. In fact, just before the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis, many officials and politicians in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany called for the removal of these weapons from Europe.
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis, especially the war that began in 2021, has indeed altered the security architecture of Europe. The escalating crisis between NATO/US/EU and Russia has led to changes in nuclear weapon policies, making the situation more dangerous. The commencement of the “New Cold War” era, initiated by the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002, has elevated the tensions to a more perilous level than the Cold War. Both sides are concurrently modernizing their nuclear arsenals, surpassing the capabilities of existing defense systems, and developing defensive weapons to counter each other’s modern armaments. The vicious arms race of the Cold War era has resumed, but in a more hazardous manner. Unlike Cold War-era officials who recognized the dangers of the arms race, today’s leaders are gradually dismantling treaties signed during that time. None of the agreements that used to restrict or limit nuclear armament, reduce the number of existing weapons, or prohibit their deployment in certain regions are currently in force. The fate of the suspended NEW START Treaty does not seem promising.
In this context, one of the issues that has come to the agenda is the increase in the number of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, whose military significance has been questioned for a long time. The abolishment of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty dated 1987 has accelerated this process. Russia has announced the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, thereby supporting the capabilities of existing Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region. Now, the presence of these weapons in Europe, once belittled by Europeans as remnants of the Cold War, is increasing, according to the news. According to the report, the United States is planning to send nuclear weapons back to the United Kingdom, from which it withdrew in 2008. Probably, this will be followed by the process of sending back tactical nuclear weapons to Greece, from which the weapons were withdrawn in 2001. Increasing the current number of weapons in other countries that currently possess them is also quite likely. It would not be surprising if NATO’s new members, Finland and Sweden, also start hosting these weapons in the near future.
The relationship between the modernization of B-12 tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe and F-35 fighter jets is a crucial aspect that should not be overlooked. The United States has been actively continuing the modernization efforts for B-12 weapons and designing them to be used with F-35 fighter jets. In this context, the procurement process of F-35 aircraft by states hosting or likely to host tactical nuclear weapons is also significant. Developments indicating that the U.S. administration’s support for the sale of F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits to Turkey may lead to a return to the F-35 program in the near future should not be overlooked in connection with the increase in the number of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.
[1] “US To Station Nuclear Weapons in UK To Counter Threat from Russia”, Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/26/us-nuclear-bombs-lackenheath-raf-russia-threat-hiroshima/, (Date Accessed: 12.02.2024).
[2] “Russia Checking Reports About US’ Plans to Deploy Nukes in UK — Lavrov”, Tass, https://tass.com/politics/1739373, (Date Accessed: 12.02.2024).
