Russia has been trying to impose its great power status on the West since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. For this reason, Moscow frequently reminds the Western Bloc based on the United States (USA) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of its nuclear capacity.
A year has passed since the Russia-Ukraine War. It is obvious that Moscow, which believed that it would achieve victory in a short time at the beginning of the war, was facing a long-term war of attrition. In a sense, the West wants Russia to experience in Ukraine what the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan in 1979. [1] For this reason, while military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine continues, sanctions targeting Russia also continue. In addition, in parallel with the increase in military aid to Ukraine, the Kremlin administration is trying to spread the idea that a war in which it will be defeated will evolve into a process in which the whole world will lose.
On the other hand, Russia reminds that it is a nuclear power from the beginning of the war and uses a continuous discourse in this regard. From time to time, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have made similar statements.
Although there is no concrete indication that Russia may use nuclear weapons, Moscow is shelving the agreements signed for nuclear disarmament one by one. This could be interpreted as Moscow effectively starting the “New Cold War.” Because, in the context of the threat of nuclear proliferation, the global security environment has become more fragile than ever since the 1990s.
However, it can be said that in the current situation, the conditions specified in Russia’s nuclear doctrine do not exist and therefore Moscow will not use these weapons. Therefore, Russia chose to apply for a nuclear card due to the impact of losing its energy card, especially after the Nord Stream I-II Natural Gas Pipelines were rendered unusable by sabotage.
In this very environment, Putin reminded that his country is a nuclear power in his speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21, 2023.[2] Medvedev then made the following statements:[3]
“After all, the logic of the American establishment so far has been: We will interfere in your affairs. We will provide the Kiev regime with plenty of weapons. We will work to defeat Russia. We will limit you and destroy you. But strategic security is a separate issue. It has nothing to do with the general context of US-Russia relations. Let American elites who have lost touch with reality reflect on what they have achieved. Let’s also watch the reaction of NATO’s other nuclear powers, France and England. When agreements were being drawn up between the United States and the USSR/(Russia), strategic nuclear forces were generally not included in the list of nuclear warheads and carriers, but now is the time to do so.”
This situation shows that Russia is applying its “nuclear card” against the West. As a matter of fact, Russia suspended its participation in the START Treaty. [4]
NATO is an alliance that brings together countries that perceive a threat from Russia due to its existence. Therefore, Moscow’s threats to use nuclear weapons certainly create uneasiness in NATO countries. For this reason, NATO has to closely monitor Russia’s activities.
As a result, although there is no indication that Moscow will use nuclear weapons in the war, it is clear that the steps taken towards nuclear disarmament are fading away one by one. This makes the global security environment more fragile every day. Because, in terms of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the conditions under which it can resort to these weapons have not been created. However, the Kremlin is raising its hand by giving the message that a war in which it will be defeated will evolve into a process in which the whole world will lose. For this reason, although the statements coming from Moscow are in the nature of a bluff, they clearly reveal Russia’s deterrence.
[1] “Why the Soviet Union Invaded Afghanistan”, History, https://www.history.com/news/1979-soviet-invasion-afghanistan, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2023).
[2] “Russia Ready to Defend Itself With Any Weapon, Including Nuclear-Medvedev”, Russian News Agency, https://tass.com/defense/1580211, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2023).
[3] “Medvedev Says Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapon if Ukraine’s Fightback Succeeds in Latest Threat”, Cable News Network News, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/31/europe/medvedev-russia-nuclear-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2023).
[4] “Russia Ready to Defend Itself With Any Weapon, Including Nuclear-Medvedev”, a.g.e., (Erişim Tarihi: 01.09.2023).
