Moldova’s relations with the European Union (EU), especially with the advent of the 2000s, has become one of the most profound components of the country’s foreign policy strategy. Moldova, which gained independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, pursued the policy of balance of powers between the East and the West. But, after the 2000s, the process of rapprochement with the EU has been expedited. In 2014, Moldova, by signing the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, created a more close-knit economic structure. The agreement inaugurated the Moldova’s market to the EU, and in the meantime provided a framework for the acceleration of democratic standards, fight against the corruption and realization of political reforms.
Moldova has a complicated relations both with the EU and Russia due to its geopolitical location. Moldova, especially after the decomposition of the Soviet Union that led to its independence, gravitated towards seeking integration with the EU, but during such process, faced with Russian influence in the region. Moldova, which was willing to enhance the relations with the EU, accelerated its reforms as of 2009, and put an effort to get closer to the EU through taking parts in the projects such as Eastern Partnership (EaP). However, in return to this gravitation of Moldova, Russia fands to forge a balance through its energy policies and influence over Transnistria region.
A critical watershed in the Moldova’s relations with the EU occured after the offensive that was initiated by Russia against Ukraine in 2022. After these developments, Moldova officially applied for the EU membership and was bestowed a candidate status in the same year.
The lastest updates in Moldova shows that the country is on the verge of a critical turning point in EU relations and faces intense Russian interference throughout the process. The allegations over the disinformation and bribery networks that are allegedly created by Russia to interfere with the elections in Moldova and in the EU referandum in order for Moldovans to vote against the West demonstrates how flared up the geopolitical struggles in the region.
Such operations that are carried out by some oligarchs such as Ilan Shor directly intervene Moldova’s democratic processes and aim to preclude the country’s entegration with the West. Especially after 2022, when Moldova was granted a candidate status by the EU, the country started scuffling with political instability, corrupiton, and foreign threats. Russia’s political and economic influence over Moldova has become apparent with its attempts to infiltrate Moldovan state institutions.
While the Moldovan government accentuates the importance of deep collaboration with the EU in order to cope with such hybrid threats, Russia’s attempts to interfere with the democratic processes contains multiple lessons for the Europe.[i] These incidents that are taking place in Moldova serve as a warning that implies the EU may face similer hybrid warfare tactics in the future for Russia. Therefore, in this critical times, Moldova’s to be created relations with the EU bear a huge essentiality for the steadiness of both the country and the region.
Russia’s hybrid tactics to increase its influence over Moldova has the potential to shake the balances up in the region. Kremlin’s attempts to prevent Moldova’s steps for EU membership through disinformation campaigns and financial interferences can be considered as Moskova’s effort to regain the former clout of Soviet grography. Russia’s objective of turning the Moldovan against the West, especially by using fear of war, points the new dimensions of hybrid warfare.
In this process, Moldova seems to be tackling multiple complicated strategies such as cyber attacks and activation of fake parties through the local actors. Kremlin’s illegal transposition of funds to the elections process in Moldova and, by using social media platforms, targeting the youth can be regarded as one of the examples of modern hybrid warfare.[ii] How Moldova’s EU accession process will affect Russia’s strategic calculations, and how it will deal with these hybrid threats will be an important run-up area for similar threats, which Europe may encounter in the pending period.
Besides, pro-Russian authorities tries to prevent Chişinău’s efforts to rapproach with the EU by interfering with the Moldova’s Presidential elections and EU referandum on October 20. National Police Chief Viorel Cernauteanu announced that through a network administrated by Russia, more than 130.000 electorates have been bribed. He also added that this network carried out a direct attack on the election process.[iii] While some pro-Russian businessmen such as Ilan Shor offered the electorates multiple payments to vote against the EU integration, there is a substantial campaign against Sandu’s pro-Western policies. Although Sandu seems to be leading in the elections, Russia’s hybrid tactics and media manipulations bear the risk of undermining the democratic process in the country.
Despite the importance of Moldova’s candidate status in Moldova’s road on its European journey, this process has brought earnest difficulties along. While Moldova is compelled to do economic and political reforms, the resolution of the separationist situation in Transnistria region is considered to be a serious impediment to the country’s road towards the EU membership. Transnistria region is considered to be a significant problem and its settlement will be a substantial indicator in Moldova’s EU membership process.
Another paramount hassle Moldova faces is its fight against corruption and deficiencies in the rule of law. The reforms, which are required for EU membership stipulates significant progress in these fields. Separately, the modernization of Moldova’s economic structure is another requirement to reach the EU standards. Moldova utilizes diverse EU funds to realize such reforms, but their completions will take time.[iv] That being said, Moldova’s EU membership process has a strategic importance in terms of the country’s foreign policy perspective. Moldova has a goal of deepening its integration with the EU in order to accelerate economic development and strengthen democratization process. Besides, Moldova’s full membership in the EU will fortify the ties it has with Europe and has the potential of changing the geopolitical balances in Southern Europe. Thus, Moldova’s EU process is critically significant not only for the country’s internal politics, but for the regional security and stability as well.
Consequently, Moldova’s integration process into Europe brings strategic and economic contentions along too. This process amplifies the polarizations both in domestic politics and directly affects the country’s decisions in its foreign policy. Sonuç olSThisThe balance Moldova tries to establish between these two powers will be decisive in terms of the country’s tendency in the future.
[i] Gabriel Gavin, “Russia paying people to vote against joining EU, Moldova warns”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/pro-russia-oligarch-network-influence-eu-moldova-elections-voter-bribery-disinformation/, (Access Date: 04.10.2024).
[ii] Gabriel Gavin, “Moldova accuses Russia of trying to rig its EU referendum”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-russia-eu-referendum-membership-social-media/ (Access Date: 04.10.2024).
[iii] Alexander Tanas, “Moldova alleges pro-Russian vote-buying scheme ahead of key vote”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-alleges-pro-russian-vote-buying-scheme-ahead-key-vote-2024-10-03/, (Access Date: 04.10.2024).
[iv] Ibid.
