The Nile River, one of Africa’s most vital water sources for centuries, has historically been synonymous with Egypt. Enabling agriculture and driving numerous economic developments, the river flows through the borders of many countries on the continent and is utilized as a resource by these nations. In recent years, and with water scarcity projected to become a significant issue in the future, Africa is expected to be one of the regions most affected. This underscores the critical importance of the Nile River.
In recent years, tensions and disputes have arisen between Egypt and Ethiopia, through which the Nile River flows, occasionally heightening regional tensions. This conflict, largely stemming from Ethiopia’s activities and future plans regarding the river, has at times drawn Sudan into the fray, leading to significant challenges in sharing the Nile’s resources.
The tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia can be traced back to 2011, the year construction began on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This dam is described as a hydroelectric project not intended for consumption. Egypt has claimed that the dam poses a threat to both Egypt’s and the region’s stability, particularly emphasizing that it jeopardizes Egypt’s water security. However, Ethiopia argues that the dam is a development project rather than a security-focused political initiative.[1]
Having held a historical advantage over the Nile River for many years, Egypt views this project as a development that could impact its current position in the region. This suggests that Egypt has adopted a more cautious approach regarding the use of the Nile River. From this perspective, the dam may be seen as a project capable of utilizing the river’s potential more efficiently than Egypt’s own infrastructure. Upon the dam’s completion, positive developments in Ethiopia’s economic activities may emerge, which could pose a challenge to Egypt’s economic dominance in the region.
While the Grand Dam Project is perceived as a threat by Egypt, it carries a very different significance for Ethiopia. The dam is seen as a symbol of unity in the face of poverty and underdevelopment. Furthermore, it has been described as a sovereignty project comparable to Ethiopia’s victory over Italy in the Battle of Adwa in 1896. Additionally, the dam has shifted the Ethiopian people’s perception of the Nile. Once regarded as a river that drained Ethiopia’s resources, it is now viewed as a force that will drive the country’s development.[2]
The dam project represents not only economic development for Ethiopia but also carries sociological implications. For Ethiopia, the only African country never colonized, the dam has transformed into a symbol associated with progress by its people. It can also be said that the dam highlights Ethiopia’s independence and its unique position as the only non-colonized African nation amid disputes with other countries.
The dam project has become a topic of debate not only between Egypt and Ethiopia but also involving other countries in the region. Ethiopia defines the dam as an African project, given that the Nile River flows through 11 African nations, and it is anticipated to contribute to Africa’s green transformation. However, Egypt characterizes the dam as a threat to Arab water security.[3]
Ethiopia’s association of the dam with other African countries can be seen as an effort to garner support during its construction process against Egypt and other potential opposing nations. On the other hand, Egypt’s framing of the project as pertaining to the Arab region rather than Africa could be interpreted as a move to broaden opposition by extending the issue beyond its immediate geographical context. Both approaches suggest that this dam project is likely to evolve into a broader debate in the future, involving not only Egypt and Ethiopia but also other neighboring countries.
In February 2020, the last round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan took place under the auspices of the Donald Trump administration and the World Bank. However, Ethiopia withdrew, citing concerns that the terms would infringe on its sovereignty. Although efforts to reach an agreement were later renewed under the leadership of the African Union, no resolution has been achieved.[4]
The primary reason for the failure of negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt is the potential threat to their sovereignty. Both countries avoid taking steps that would involve making concessions on this matter. Despite interventions from other mediating institutions, the lack of a definitive resolution raises concerns that the dispute could escalate into more serious crises or even military conflicts in the future.
Although the dam has begun producing hydroelectric power, tensions between the two countries have not diminished. Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns that their vital water resources are under threat. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has stated that Egypt is primarily interested in maintaining its regional monopoly. This tension has recently escalated to a military dimension, as Egypt and Somalia have signed a military agreement, while disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia are also intensifying.[5]
Egypt’s move in Somalia could push Ethiopia to form a similar military alliance, potentially escalating tensions in the region. With the involvement of external countries in various ways, the dam issue could transform into a more regional problem. The other African countries through which the Nile River flows play a less visible role in the tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. When the effects of the dam become more apparent in the region, it is likely that bilateral alignments, led by Ethiopia and Egypt, will emerge.
The struggle over the Nile River is also related to efforts to minimize the effects of drought. The importance and potential of the Nile, which has symbolized fertility and prosperity for Egypt for years, are increasingly understood by other countries as well. With the worsening of droughts, it is foreseeable that the Grand Dam will be just one of the issues concerning the Nile, and various problems involving other countries will emerge.
[1] Ayferam, G. (2023, January 19). The Nile Dispute: Beyond water security. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2023/01/the-nile-dispute-beyond-water-security?lang=en, (Access Date: 22.11.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Mohyeldeen, S. (2021, February 12). The dam that broke open an Ethiopia-Egypt dispute. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2021/04/the-dam-that-broke-open-an-ethiopia-egypt-dispute?lang=en¢er=middle-eas, (Access Date: 22.11.2024).
[5] Yibeltal, K. (2024, September 9). Gerd: Ethiopia hits out at Egypt as Nile dam row escalates. BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3dgx36gn5o, (Access Date: 22.11.2024).
