The United States (US)-Cuba Migration Agreements, established in 1984, provide a legal framework governing the movement of migrants between the two countries.[1] Under these agreements, Cuba has accepted deportations of its citizens living illegally in the United States. However, this has generally been done in a small and controlled manner. Since the Biden administration took office, the US has deported small numbers of migrants to Cuba, and Cuba has accepted deportations by air and sea.
These agreements reflect a more measured approach aimed at preventing chaotic and mass migration. In this framework, both countries are expected to manage migratory flows in a more predictable way, avoiding potential humanitarian crises.
President-elect Donald Trump’s mass deportation proposal reflects a dramatic departure from the Biden administration’s more measured approach. Trump has pledged to deport 1 million migrants a year, and Vice President JD Vance estimates that 1 million people a year will leave the country.[2] Trump’s new border official, Tom Homan, has stated that deportations will focus on criminals and people with recent deportation orders, but has not said whether there will be exemptions for certain groups or nationalities.
For Cuba, such a proposal is highly problematic. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio emphasized that mass deportations from the US to Cuba are unrealistic. He stated that deportations should be carried out within the framework of existing migration agreements. The Cuban government’s resistance to mass deportations is motivated by both practical and diplomatic concerns. Mass deportations could strain Cuba’s resources, as the individuals subject to deportation may not have lived in Cuba for many years or may have family in the United States. Moreover, mass deportations could further strain relations between the US and Cuba, making cooperation on immigration policy and other bilateral issues more difficult.
The Trump administration’s rhetoric on migration, especially in the context of deportations, should be seen in the broader geopolitical relations between the US and Cuba. Under Trump, US policy toward Cuba has become more hard-line, reversing the diplomatic openings initiated by the Obama administration. This change is particularly evident in the areas of trade, travel and migration. In this context, Trump’s deportation proposals targeting Cuban migrants can be seen as a means of pressure on the Cuban government; this is in line with other policies Trump has previously implemented. For example, tightening sanctions and limiting remittances.
The Biden administration, on the other hand, has adopted an approach to protect existing agreements on migration and aims to maintain the validity of these agreements in the ongoing migration negotiations between the two countries. While these negotiations do not directly address Trump’s deportation proposals, they are a reminder that both countries recognize the importance of cooperation on migration issues.
The Trump administration’s proposed mass deportations present significant practical challenges, particularly in the case of Cuban deportations. The Cuban government has shown little willingness to accept large numbers of deportations and US demands for mass deportations could create a diplomatic crisis. It is also clear that such a move could create significant challenges for US domestic policy. This is because deportations can be particularly damaging to vulnerable or politically important groups, such as Cuban refugees or those fleeing political repression.
Given that the United States is already facing a broader immigration crisis, devoting resources to mass deportations may prevent other pressing issues from being addressed. For example, issues such as asylum seeker processing, border security, and the root causes of irregular migration from regions such as Central America may take precedence.
Cuba’s national interests shape its position on Trump’s migrant deportation proposals. The Cuban Government recognizes the potential impact of mass deportations on the internal situation.[3] Deportations could lead to many individuals returning to Cuba having not lived in Cuba for a long time or having lost contact with Cuba, which could pose problems for integration and social stability. Cuba has made it clear that deportations should be carried out within the framework of existing migration agreements, and it is contrary to this understanding for the United States to carry out such large-scale deportations unilaterally.
Moreover, Cuba sees migration issues as a tool for diplomacy and mass deportations can be seen as a US policy to isolate Cuba internationally. The Cuban Government has expressed the hypocrisy of the US on human rights and migration policies, citing the US treatment of its citizens, in particular the Cuban Adjustment Act.
As a result, the debate over US deportation policies, especially those targeting Cuban migrants, reflects the broader context of Cuba-US relations. The Trump administration’s mass deportation proposal may contravene existing migration agreements, but it can be seen as part of the geopolitical struggle between the two countries. Cuba’s tough stance on this issue can be understood as an effort to protect its sovereignty and a resistance to prevent the humanitarian impact of the US harsh policies on migrants.
In the future, it is important that both countries engage in diplomatic talks on cooperation on migrants and other bilateral issues. Given the difficulties of implementing mass deportations, a more pragmatic approach by the US to stick to existing migration agreements could strengthen both countries’ relations and offer a more sustainable solution.
[1] “Cuba calls Trump plan for mass deportation of immigrants unrealistic”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-calls-trump-proposal-mass-deportation-immigrants-unrealistic-2024-12-04/, (Access Date: 06.12.2024).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Cuba and US Hold Migration Talks in Havana”, Cuban News Agency, http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/25738-cuba-and-us-hold-migration-talks-in-havana (Access Date: 06.12.2024).
