The South Asian region and especially the Indian Ocean has always held a special place in India’s geopolitics as India has traditionally considered it as its zone of influence. The history of the region and India’s current level of influence over the region contribute to this. The Indian Ocean is critical to India for various reasons. It is worth remembering that the Indian Ocean, previously not at the center of global geopolitics, has recently assumed an increasing role. Its strategic importance has increased in recent years due to the fact that about 50% of containerized transportation and 80% of petroleum product shipments occur through it.[i] India is paying great attention to strengthen its influence in this region.
Maldives as a part of the Indian Ocean has a favorable geographical location, because having control over these islands can control most of the Ocean, so these islands are of great geopolitical importance for India. For a long time Maldives had close ties with India, and the latter tried to increase its influence on Male. India and Maldives share a close strategic partnership, especially in the area of defense and security. The two countries have long cooperated on issues such as counter-terrorism, maritime security and intelligence sharing to address common challenges in the region.
India is a key economic partner of the Maldives, providing financial assistance, grants and development aid. Indian projects in the Maldives include infrastructure development, health, education and capacity-building. Both India and Maldives actively participate in regional forums and organizations dedicated to cooperation and security in the Indian Ocean, such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS).
However, due to the above mentioned factors, the Indian Ocean and Maldives in particular are not only interesting for India. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” is worth mentioning here. This is a global infrastructure development strategy that will help China, using China’s wealth and industrial “know-how”, to create a new kind of globalization by attracting countries and companies into China’s zone of influence and weaken its opponents (including India) and gain a dominant economic position. Considering this, and the fact that India is yet to successfully implement the “South-North initiative” [ii] due to economic difficulties, problems of mutual understanding between partners and sanctions against Iran and Russia by the West, the Indian leadership is developing a new strategy in the South Asian region. The key role in this vector of Indian geopolitics is played by the Indian Ocean and the Maldives in particular.
This is why it is important for Beijing to increase its influence not only for economic gain, but also in the context of rivalry with India. This explains the recent developments related to the Maldives. China and Maldives signed an action plan document to build a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. As well as a number of agreements on bilateral cooperation in such areas as joint construction of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, disaster management, economic and technological cooperation, “blue, digital, green economy”, infrastructure development and so on.[iii] It is also worth considering the possibility of establishing a Chinese military base in the Maldives.[iv] Also, the president of the Maldives stated that China will provide 920 million yuan of free aid to the Maldives. The funds will be used to reconstruct roads. He also noted additional agreements signed between China and the Maldives, including agreements to build 30,000 units of social housing.[v]
At the same time, it can be seen that India’s relations with the Maldives have deteriorated. After a visit to Beijing, Maldivian President Muizzou said that he would reduce dependence on India for health and medical services. Also, the president’s website also says that the government will end its dependence on a “certain country” for importing staple foods such as rice, sugar and flour.[vi] One can also recall the political scandal that started because a Maldivian deputy minister made an offensive remark about India Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And despite the resignation of the minister in Maldives and clarification from the Maldivian government, the scandal started on the internet which led to tension between the people of both countries and between the political elites. The above facts show that the relationship between the two nations is going through a difficult phase and India’s influence over Maldives is diminishing. To summarize, China’s strengthening of its position in the Maldives and the attempted withdrawal of Male’ from India’s zone of influence shows how important the Indian Ocean region is to Beijing and New Delhi, and that the rivalry between them is only growing. China has established a presence in ports along the Indian Ocean, particularly in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, under the so-called “String of Pearls” strategy. India has responded by strengthening its naval capabilities so that it can operate even in distant waters, near the Maldives and Seychelles. Based on the above factors, it can be concluded that India is not ready to give up influence in the Indian Ocean, which will be of increasing geopolitical importance. The Maldives, in turn, as a strategically important country will be under the attention of such major external actors as India and China.
[i] “A game of risk: the Indian Ocean’s most strategically important ports”, Ship Technology, https://www.ship-technology.com/features/a-game-of-risk-the-indian-oceans-most-strategically-important-ports/ (Date of Accession: 05.09.2019).
[ii] “International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC)”, ClearIAS, https://www.clearias.com/international-north-south-transport-corridor-instc/ (Date of Accession: 19.11.2023).
[iii] “Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India”, DAWN, https://www.dawn.com/news/1804771/maldives-upgrades-ties-with-china-amid-pivot-from-india (Date of Accession: 10.01.2024).
[iv] “Shifting Sands: Chinese Military Bases in the Maldives”, LankaNews, https://www.lankaenews.com/news/3612/en (Date of Accession: 28.12.2023).
[v] “China to provide 920 million Chinese yuan in free aid, states the President”, The President’s Office Republic of Maldives, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29641 (Date of Accession: 13.01.2024).
[vi] “The President Announces China-Maldives Agreements for Agricultural Expansion and Food Security Enhancement”, The President’s Office Republic of Maldives, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29644 (Date of Accession: 13.01.2024).
