Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying announced that French President Emmanuel Macron and European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Beijing on 5-7 April 2023. It is known that one week before this visit, on March 31, 2023, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez went to Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Considering that the European Union (EU)-China relations and the war in Ukraine were discussed during Sanchez’s visit,[1] it can be said that Macron and Leyen focused on similar issues in their meetings with Xi.
The main factor affecting the intention of European actors to visit Beijing is the peace plan published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War. Because in the first article of the said plan, China openly expressed its support for the sovereignties and territorial integrities of the states.[2] Of course, this article emphasizes the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Moreover, despite this article, which caused discomfort in Moscow, Xi visited Moscow on March 20-22, 2023, revealing that China-Russia relations will continue to develop and deepen.
The situation in question has led to the strengthening of the idea that Beijing can act as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine War among the European actors. In fact, it is possible to accept the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing on 4 November 2022 as the beginning of the idea that China can mediate. Because during the said visit, Scholz asked Xi to use his influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin.[3] In this sense, after China’s peace plan, which is a development in line with the point Scholz pointed out, first Sanchez and then Macron and Leyen made these visits, which showed that they care about Beijing’s mediation.
On the other hand, after the allegation that China could play a mediator role came to the fore, it was suggested by the United States of America (USA) that the Beijing administration might send weapons to Russia.[4] In fact, the USA is one of the leading actors who want the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine War. Turning the war into a war of attrition is very useful for the Washington administration. Because, in this way, the USA had the opportunity to both repair the damage in trans-Atlantic relations and consolidate its hegemony in Continental Europe, as well as weaken its rival Russia, which stands out in the context of its pursuit of multipolarity.
In such an environment, Washington, which wanted the war to prolong after China’s mediation came to the fore, tried to undermine mediation efforts by accusing Beijing of preparing to send weapons to Russia.
Despite the aforementioned strategy of the USA, it is obvious that the Beijing administration favors the end of the war. As a matter of fact, Xi conveyed his opinion on this issue to his Russian counterpart at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Leaders’ Summit held in Samarkand, the ancient city of Uzbekistan on September 15-16, 2022, and clearly expressed that China is uncomfortable with the prolongation of the war in Ukraine.[5] Therefore, Beijing has been using a consistent rhetoric about the end of the war for a long time. This is probably why, after China’s publication of its peace plan proposal, European actors’ visits to Beijing were planned, and after Xi’s visit to Moscow, first Sanchez’s and then Macron and Leyen’s visit took place.
Undoubtedly, these visits are very important in that they indicate that although Continental Europe acts in solidarity from a collective Western perspective due to threat perceptions regarding Russia, it may adopt a roadmap different from the expectations of the USA in the medium and long term.
As it can be understood, the interest shown by various actors from Continental Europe to China does not coincide with the global imaginations of the USA. This can be interpreted as the Western solidarity created by the war in Ukraine may crack once again after the war. As a matter of fact, the fact that the future of China-EU relations was also discussed during the aforementioned visits confirms this situation.
As can be expected, the effective position of the said country in the global economy is decisive in the EU’s determination to maintain relations with China. In other words, there is an interdependence relationship between China and Europe that is not easy to give up. This means that the effort of the USA to get the support of Europe against China in the Asia-Pacific after Russia may be fruitless. The EU has already revealed that it wants to be positioned as a power center/pole in the multipolar world, especially during the previous US President Donald Trump era. Therefore, relations between China and the EU can develop in line with the expectations of both parties within the framework of the searchs for multipolarity. Because the EU has not ended its searchs for strategic autonomy.
As a result, China is uncomfortable with the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine War. That’s why Xi wants to mediate. The European states, which were most affected by the negative consequences of the war, especially the energy crisis, are also in anticipation of the end of the war as soon as possible. For this reason, diplomatic visits from Europe to Beijing intensified after the peace plan published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is very important in terms of showing that the EU cares about China despite the USA.
[1] “Xi Jinping, İspanya Başbakanı Pedro Sanchez’le Bir Araya Geldi”, CRI Türk, https://turkish.cri.cn/2023/03/31/ARTIUEiX91eHZsYanSI4SIKn230331.shtml, (Date of Accession: 05.04.2023).
[2] “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis”, FMPRC, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html, (Date of Accession: 05.04.2023).
[3] Cenk Tamer, “Batı’nın Çin’le Mücadelesi ve Almanya’nın Farklılaşan Tutumu”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/batinin-cinle-mucadelesi-ve-almanyanin-farklilasan-tutumu/, (Date of Accession: 05.04.2023).
[4] “ABD’nin Elinde Çin’i Rusya’ya Silah Yardımı Yapmaktan Vazgeçirecek Askeri Seçenek Yok”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/abdnin-elinde-cini-rusyaya-silah-yardimi-yapmaktan-vazgecirecek-askeri-secenek-yok/2833920, (Date of Accession: 05.04.2023).
[5] Gülru Gezer, “Batı’da Tecrit Edilen Putin Şiö Zirvesi’nde İstediği Desteği Bulamadı”, Independent Türkçe, https://www.indyturk.com/node/554206/t%C3%BCrki%CC%87yeden-sesler/bat%C4%B1da-tecrit-edilen-putin-%C5%9Fi%CC%87%C3%B6-zirvesinde-istedi%C4%9Fi-deste%C4%9Fi-bulamad%C4%B1, (Date of Accession: 05.04.2023).
