Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Africa on June 3-6, 2024 is noteworthy as part of Moscow’s strategy to increase its influence in the continent and balance the influence of the West. Lavrov’s visits to Guinea, Burkina Faso, Congo and Chad and the agreements he signed there may have important consequences for the region.
Lavrov’s visit to Burkina Faso included a series of talks aimed at strengthening military cooperation between the two countries. During the talks in Vagadugu, it was announced that Russia will send more military trainers to Burkina Faso. This means that Burkina Faso’s security forces will be trained and equipped by Russia. Lavrov emphasized Russia’s support for counter-terrorism efforts in the region and stated that this cooperation will expand not only in military but also in economic and technical fields. Russia’s move could enhance Burkina Faso’s counterterrorism capacity and strengthen Moscow’s influence in the region. In the future, it seems likely that Russia will further increase its military presence in Burkina Faso and aim to become a permanent power in the region.
During Lavrov’s visit to Chad, important agreements on strategic cooperation were signed.[1] These agreements envisage increased Russian investment in the energy and mining sectors. Of particular note during this visit was Chad’s willingness to deepen its relations with Russia despite its historical ties with France. This reflects Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel region, potentially weakening the West’s traditional influence in the region. This step by Chad shows a new search for balance in its relations with France. Russian investments in the energy and mining sectors in Chad could contribute significantly to the country’s economic development and further consolidate the Russian presence in the region.
Lavrov’s support for the Liberia Conference during his visit to Congo demonstrates Russia’s interest in peace and stabilization efforts in the region. Lavrov expressed support for Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s efforts to end the conflict in Liberia. This support reflects Russia’s desire to increase its diplomatic influence in Africa and become a key actor in peace processes. Moreover, Lavrov’s announcement during his visit that Russia will also invest in infrastructure projects in the region is aimed at deepening economic cooperation. Such projects can be seen as part of Russia’s efforts to protect and expand its long-term strategic interests in Africa. This cooperation in Congo can play a critical role for the stability of the region and increase Russia’s influence in peace processes.
Another important dimension of Lavrov’s African visits is their impact on Sahel geopolitics. The Sahel region is plagued by various problems such as terrorism, climate change, food insecurity, poverty and political instability. Russia’s increased presence in the region, while welcomed by local governments, could change the security dynamics in the region. Lavrov’s visits have the potential to reshape the balance of power in the Sahel region by increasing Russia’s military and economic influence. These visits could enhance the counterterrorism capabilities of countries in the Sahel region and lead to a more active role for Russia in security policies in the region. In the future, the Russian presence in the Sahel region could become a key element in the region’s security and economic development strategies.
France has reacted to Lavrov’s visits to Africa. France is particularly concerned about the risk of losing its influence in Chad.[2] Paris wants to maintain its military presence in the Sahel region and continue its efforts to assert its presence and influence in the region in the name of the fight against terrorism. However, Russia’s growing influence may make it difficult for France to achieve its strategic goals in the region. Western media characterized Lavrov’s visits as a “diplomatic challenge”,[3] reflects these concerns. Western countries may be forced to develop more proactive policies against this Russian rise in Africa. France’s efforts to increase its military presence in the Sahel region may turn into a direct competition with Russia, further complicating the security dynamics in the region.
Another important aspect of Lavrov’s visits to Africa was the economic agreements and future projects. Russia has signed cooperation agreements with African countries in various fields such as energy, mining, infrastructure and agriculture. These agreements are seen as part of Russia’s strategy to increase its economic influence in Africa. Energy projects in particular aim to strengthen Russia’s strategic position in the region. While these cooperations can contribute to the economic development of African countries, they can also increase Russia’s influence in global energy markets.
Increasing such economic cooperation can help Russia achieve its long-term strategic goals in Africa. At the same time, Russia seeks to increase its presence in African countries to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. In the future, Russia can be expected to further increase its economic and political influence in the region through these projects. Having a military and political presence in the region in the first place, Moscow plans to increase its economic influence in the future.
Lavrov’s visits to Africa may also cause Western countries to reconsider their Africa policy. Russia’s growing influence in Africa complicates the West’s efforts to protect its strategic interests in the region. This may necessitate a change in Western countries’ policies towards Africa. Following Lavrov’s visits, Western leaders may step up their efforts to establish closer ties with African countries and increase their investments in the region. Western countries’ efforts to increase this rivalry may expand the diplomatic room for maneuver for African countries. By taking advantage of this rivalry, African countries could receive more economic and military support from both Russia and the West.
Security dynamics in the Sahel region could change significantly following Lavrov’s visits. Russia’s increased military and economic presence in the region could contribute to counterterrorism efforts. If local governments in the region experience positive developments in the fight against terrorism with Russia’s support, this could open the door to important developments in the Sahel region and further increase Russia’s influence.
Russia aims to become more influential in the global balance of power by increasing its presence in Africa. This strategy includes not only military and economic cooperation, but also cultural and educational cooperation. During Lavrov’s visits, it was also announced that Russia would offer scholarships and educational programs to African countries. This can be considered as part of Russia’s soft power strategy. Educational and cultural cooperation can contribute to Russia’s permanent presence in Africa and, in the long run, consolidate Moscow’s influence on the continent. Russian media will also contribute to this in a positive way.
In conclusion, Lavrov’s series of important visits to four African countries can be seen as part of Russia’s strategy to increase its influence on the continent and balance the West’s traditional influence in the region. Lavrov’s meetings, agreements and future plans in Burkina Faso, Chad and Congo could significantly affect the security and economic dynamics of the region. Russia’s interest in the Sahel countries also indicates that competition over Sahel geopolitics will increase. Therefore, these visits are an important development that will shape not only the relations between Russia and African countries, but also the global balance of power.
[1] Carol Valade, “Sergueï Lavrov termine sa tournée africaine par le Tchad, dernier allié de la France au Sahel”, Le Monde, 6 Haziran 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2024/06/06/serguei-lavrov-termine-sa-tournee-africaine-par-le-tchad-dernier-allie-de-la-france-au-sahel_6237651_3212.html, (Access Date: 09.06.2024).
[2] “Sergueï Lavrov boucle sa tournée africaine au Tchad, sur fond de rivalité diplomatique avec la France”, RFI, 6 Haziran 2024, https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20240605-sergueï-lavrov-boucle-sa-tournée-africaine-au-tchad-sur-fond-de-rivalité-diplomatique-avec-la-france, (Access Date: 09.06.2024).
[3] Ibid.
