Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have recently escalated and reached different dimensions. Especially the developments in the north of Kosovo have strained the Belgrade-Pristina line and undermined the ongoing dialogue process with the European Union (EU). The long-standing tensions reached a different dimension on September 24, 2023 and became one of the turning points in the recent period.
On the morning of September 24, 2023, a group of armed Serbs blocked the road in the village of Banjska in the north of Kosovo, which is predominantly inhabited by Serbs, and a clash broke out when Kosovo police intervened. As a result of the clash, 1 Kosovo police officer lost his life. Afterwards, the area where the incident took place was put under siege and the attackers were neutralized. [1]
Although at first it appears to be a simple clash between the police and a group, a deeper look into the incident reveals that it has the potential to affect the relations between the two countries and the balance in the region. Albin Kurti, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, described the group that carried out the attack as a terrorist organization and furthermore claimed that this group was linked to Serbia. [2]
Although there was no evidence that Serbia was behind such an attack, it was confirmed that it was carried out by Kosovo Serbs. However, this changed on September 29, 2023, when Milan Radoicic, former Vice President of the Serbian List, a party of Kosovo Serbs, claimed responsibility for the incident. Radoicic was detained in Serbia following this development and released on judicial control conditions.[3] Radoicic’s detention and release in Serbia and Serbia’s statements that it would not extradite Radoicic to Kosovo put Serbia, which was already in a difficult situation due to the events, in even more trouble.
On the other hand, Serbia was hampered by another development, namely that the ammunition used during the attack came from Serbia.[4]The fact that some of these munitions were produced in a factory in Serbia and reached the north of Kosovo can be read as a development to the detriment of Serbia.
As a result of these incidents, the dialogue process, in which the solution has not yet been put on the table, has also been undermined. At this point, Serbia’s hand has been weakened by such an incident in which Serbia was blamed while avoiding making any concessions to either side. Trying to improve its image in the eyes of the EU and other Western actors, Serbia has prioritized dialogue in its problems with Kosovo, but recent developments have caused Serbia to lose its diplomatic advantage.
In this context, EU Spokesperson Peter Stano’s statement on the incident on October 9, 2023 also reveals Serbia’s position in the EU. Stano stated that the events in Banjska need to be fully explained and that they “will have consequences”. This statement, which is a warning from Brussels, indicates that Serbia should cooperate unconditionally on the incident. [5]
On the other hand, according to some statements, a package of sanctions against Serbia is expected to be on the agenda. While no clear statement has yet been made on this issue, the Serbian representative to the EU, Klemen Groselj, has stated that he is not aware of such a package. [6]
However, at this point, it should be noted that any punishment or sanction to be imposed on Serbia will not be in favor of the EU. This is because with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, the Russian influence has become more visible in the region and Serbia has been one of the most important pillars of this influence. For the United States of America (USA) and the EU, which have recently been trying to draw Serbia to the Western wing, it can be said that a sanction against Serbia is likely to backfire.
In this context, it can be said that no sanctions will be imposed on Serbia within the framework of recent events. There are several reasons for this. First, even though the EU’s attitude towards Serbia has changed in the aftermath of these events, as mentioned above, it can be said that the EU will not take the risk of a potentially counterproductive sanction. This is because a possible sanction could lead Serbia to further strengthen its ties with Russia and distance itself from the West.
Another reason is that some member states will oppose the sanctions to be imposed by the EU. In particular, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who has close relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, would not allow such a situation in the EU.
On the other hand, it is possible to say that Serbia’s recent efforts to harmonize itself with the EU institutions within the framework of its balance policy and Vucic’s diplomatic moves have prevented a large-scale sanction. In this context, Serbia has lost its recent diplomatic advantage. This has also affected its dialog with Kosovo. However, it can be assessed that the EU, which wants to retain as much room for maneuver in the region as possible and knows that Serbia is the key to this, will not take any steps to punish or squeeze Serbia in the near future.
[1] “Novi pucnji u Banjskoj, zabranjen ulaz na Kosovo preko Brnjaka i Jarinja. Kurti tvrdi: Ubijen jedan policajac”, Blic, https://www.blic.rs/vesti/politika/pucnjava-u-leposavicu-aljbin-kurti-tvrdi-da-je-napadnuta-kosovska-policija/6rrj240, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023).
[2] “Kosovo accuses Serbia of involvement in paramilitary ambush”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/28/kosovo-accuses-serbia-of-involvement-in-paramilitary-ambush, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023).
[3] “Radoičić pušten na slobodu, zabranjen mu odlazak na Kosovo”, Al Jazeera Balkans, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2023/10/4/radoicic-pusten-na-slobodu-zabranjen-mu-odlazak-na-kosovo, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023).
[4] “Istraživanje BIRN-a: Oružje iz Banjske prošlo kroz sistem Srbije”, Al Jazeera Balkans, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/videos/2023/10/9/istrazivanje-birn-a-oruzje-iz-banjske-proslo-kroz-sistem-srbije, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023).
[5] “Posle Banjske, Brisel upozorava Srbiju na posledice: Šta bi mogao da sadrži paket mera”, N1 Info, https://n1info.rs/vesti/posle-banjske-brisel-upozorava-srbiju-na-posledice-sta-bi-mogao-da-sadrzi-paket-mera/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023).
[6] Same page.
