On 31 March 2023, the Ambassador of the European Union (EU) to Tbilisi, Pawel Herczynski, expressed his wish for Georgia to join the Union as soon as possible, along with other candidate countries, notably Ukraine and Moldova.[1] This situation brings into question whether the membership of the three countries is possible or not.
As a matter of fact, it is known that the mentioned countries have a significant demand for membership. In this case, the actors’ geopolitical desire to position themselves as a part of the West is crucial. Therefore, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova are turning towards the West in parallel with the threat they perceive from Russia and are making various attempts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the one hand and the EU on the other.
Even though both NATO and the EU have given positive signals to the three countries, it can be said that membership is unlikely to be possible. This is rooted in the fact that Russia considers the expansion of NATO and the EU in the post-Soviet space as part of its encirclement plan. Likewise, the Moscow authorities have demonstrated their determination in this regard by intervening militarily in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
Essentially, this situation can be interpreted as the Kremlin’s geopolitical importance of having neutral buffer zones in its relations with the West. Thus, the elimination of buffer zones may bring about Russia’s intervention.
At the same time, as they are targets of Russia, the mentioned states also attach importance to improving their relations with Western allies and seek alliances with international organizations such as the EU and NATO. It is therefore possible to mention a paradoxical situation.
Particularly after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, the issue of the Kyiv administration’s EU membership has started to be discussed in an intense manner. In this environment, Moldova, which thought that it might be the next address of Russian intervention due to the Transnistria Conflict, also accelerated its orientation towards the West. Georgia, on the other hand, with the impact of the memories left by the war in 2008, is trying to turn the European solidarity against Russia due to the war in Ukraine into an opportunity and is making some attempts to be accepted by the Union.
At this point, it can be claimed that the EU’s approach to the membership of the actors has gained importance. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate how the Union views the membership of these countries. Firstly, it should be noted that the EU makes positive statements about the membership of the mentioned states. Yet, in practice, it is also not possible to talk about a willing EU on membership. For, the relevant states have serious deficiencies in terms of EU criteria.
To elaborate on the situation, it is evident that the Kyiv administration presents the Russian-Ukrainian War from the perspective of the defense of continental Europe and states that it has become a target for defending Western values through the narrative of the ” battle between democracies and autocracies”. In this context, Ukraine has an expectation
for the finalization of the EU membership process.[2] Indeed, due to the war, Ukraine
expresses that the EU should take a certain stance and clearly expresses its expectation for the acceleration of the accession process. However, on 3 February 2023, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, stated clearly that it was not possible to accelerate the process.[3]
With the effect of the crisis in Ukraine, Georgia is also demanding the EU membership process to progress. Indeed, on 8 March 2023, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili stated that his government and the Georgian people are “doing their best” to become full members of the EU.[4] Nevertheless, it is known that Tbilisi’s policy of balancing Russia and the West, as Tbilisi does not want to confront Russia over aid to Ukraine and thus face the feeling of isolation it experienced in 2008, has been criticized by EU member actors. Particularly, the EU’s criticism of Tbilisi has become harsher after the recent attempt to introduce a law on foreign funds, which has led to protests in Georgia. Although the current draft law has been withdrawn, it can be said that there are some negative attitudes toward the EU’s approach towards Georgia.
On the other hand, Moldova applied for EU membership on 3 March 2022, one week after Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. As a matter of fact, during the application process, Romanian President Maia Sandu said “We want to live in peace, we want to live in prosperity, we want to be a part of the free world”, which revealed the geopolitical preference of the Chisinau administration. However, given the fact that Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, it seems quite unlikely that the country will be able to meet the standards of the Union.
Apparently, all three actors would like to be part of the EU. However, it is not easy to actualize these memberships in a short period of time. Because the actors have serious problems in terms of EU standards. For instance, one of the main expansion criteria of the EU is that there should be no risk of conflict on the borders of the countries and there should be no problem with territorial integrity. However, Ukraine’s territorial integrity has been violated by Russia and the country is actively in a state of war. Georgia, on the other hand, has been struggling with its territorial integrity since 2008 due to the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Similarly, Moldova is also confronted with a separatist structure in Transnistria. Moreover, Russian peacekeepers are on duty in the region and it is speculated that the war in Ukraine may spread to Transnistria.[5] In such an environment, it would be a miracle if the EU membership of the states of interest is approved by the Union states.
Moreover, it is unclear whether the EU would be willing to extend its neighborhood with Russia. As buffer zones are a safeguard not only for Russia but also for the EU.
In addition, within the framework of the Copenhagen Criteria, the EU expects the future member state to fulfill certain requirements in terms of economy, corruption, fight against poverty, and democratic standards. Although Ukraine has made some reforms and taken steps to fight corruption, it is not expected to make progress to fulfill these criteria under war conditions.
As mentioned above, Georgia, on the other hand, conducts a policy of balance. The decisions taken or attempted to be taken as a reflection of this policy point to a situation far from the EU criteria.
Moldova, as mentioned above, is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Therefore, it has a long way to go. All these issues indicate the difficulty for all three countries to become a member.
At this point, all three countries, Ukraine in particular, are focusing on the “exceptional membership” formula due to Russia-centred threat perceptions and wish to be permitted to realize membership despite the shortcomings. However, this may be perceived as disrespectful to the efforts of the candidate states in the current situation. Moreover, the EU will not want this door to be opened as well.
On the other hand, it is still unclear how the EU will be positioned in the new geopolitical conditions that will emerge in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. One scenario is that the EU will rebuild its energy relations with Moscow after the war and Russia will be included in the European security structure. In this scenario, the EU is considered to be one of the power centers, that is, one of the poles, in a multipolar world. In such a scenario, it is not expected that the EU would embrace these countries in a way that would attract the reaction of Russia.
On the other hand, even if the EU keeps its current positioning and acts within the framework of the sense of solidarity in Trans-Atlantic relations, it may block the membership of states with favorable relations with Russia. For instance, considering Hungary’s difficulties with the EU’s sanctions targeting Moscow, notably in the field of energy, it is possible that the Budapest administration will also put obstacles in the way of Kyiv, Tbilisi, and Chisinau. In conclusion, despite Herczynski’s statements on 31 March 2023, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are not expected to become EU members in the foreseeable future. The reason for this is because there are many issues to be addressed, from territorial integrity to democratic and economic standards. Under the current circumstances, it is not easy to achieve such progress. Therefore, it can be predicted that the EU journey of the three states will take a long time. It is even possible that the prolonged process may lead to frustration with the EU in these countries.
[1] “EU Ambassador Hopes Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova to be EU Members Soon”, 1TV, https://1tv.ge/lang/en/news/eu-ambassador-hopes-georgia-ukraine-moldova-to-be-eu-members-soon/, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[2] Raf Casert-Samuel Petrequin, “Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Makes Emotional Appeal for EU Membership”, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-politics-france-government-european-union-9ea8e33ad7520cac6fc1b1d8a420d429, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[3] Doğacan Başaran, “Ukraine’s EU Journey”, ANKASAM, https://www.ankasam.org/ukraines-eu-journey/?lang=en, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[4] Karen Gilchrist, “‘Europe is Very Much Open for You’: Germany Backs EU Membership Bid of Russia’s Neighbor Georgia”, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/europe-is-very-much-open-for-you-germany-backs-georgias-eu-membership-bid.html, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
[5] “Moldova Officially Applies for EU Membership”, Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/moldova-officially-applies-for-eu-membership, (Date of Accession: 01.04.2023).
