Recent attacks by Ukraine on the Russian Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol have intensified. On September 13, 2023, an attack was carried out on the shipyard where the repairs of the existing fleet ships were being conducted.[1] It is reported that the Ropucha-class landing ship Minsk and the upgraded Kilo-class submarine Rostov Na Donu suffered severe damage in the attack.[2]
It is worth remembering that after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the decision to modernize the Black Sea Fleet included placing surface ships equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles with a range of 2500 km and 6 upgraded Kilo-class submarines. [3] The submarine Rostov Na Donu, which is claimed to be damaged in the September 13 attack, had gained notoriety for launching missile attacks on ISIS targets inside Syria from the Eastern Mediterranean while en route from St. Petersburg Admiralty Verfi Shipyard to the Black Sea.[4]
As a result of the attacks carried out by Ukraine, there have been reports in open sources suggesting that Russia has relocated a significant portion of its fleet to safer regions such as Novorossiysk and Fodosia.[5]The latest news indicates that Russia has signed a permanent naval base agreement in the Ochamchira region of Abkhazia, leading to objections from Georgia.[6][7] Georgia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concerns about the integration processes initiated by Russia in the indivisible Abkhazia region, emphasizing that such actions constitute a severe violation of Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Abkhazia’s Ochamchira region, recognized as an independent country by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria, came into focus after the signing of an agreement in 2010, allowing Moscow to establish a military base in Abkhazia for 49 years.[8]
The notable attacks by Ukraine on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, involving unmanned aerial and naval vehicles, long-range cruise missiles provided by Western countries, and special forces, have attracted attention.
These attacks aim to end the naval blockade on Russian ports, disrupt the logistical support of the Russian army in southern Ukraine, and make Crimea untenable for the Russian military.[9]
Following the partial withdrawal of the Russian fleet from Sevastopol, Ukraine temporarily reopened some of its ports to commercial vessels. After withdrawing from the grain corridor agreement, Russia threatened to target commercial ships heading to Ukrainian ports.[10]
To counter this, Ukraine established a corridor for commercial traffic from Romania-Bulgaria coastal waters, bypassing the Russian blockade. The attacks by Ukraine on the Russian Black Sea Fleet have made maritime operations in the western Black Sea perilous for Moscow.
While the attacks complicated the control of grain ships and facilitated the arrival of trade vessels at Ukrainian ports, Russia had to tolerate Ukraine’s reopening of ports for grain ships.
Considering the potential negative impact on the existing commercial traffic, expanding Novorossiysk, an important commercial port considered an alternative to Sevastopol, to accommodate the entire Black Sea Fleet would be detrimental. Although the Ochamchira region in Abkhazia has been considered an alternative, its limited logistical capabilities make it a less feasible option, especially in the prelude to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In conclusion, although the number of ships in the Russian Black Sea Fleet has decreased due to recent attacks, active Kilo-class submarines, aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles suggest that attacks on mainland Ukraine will continue. Additionally, the possibility of Russia using mines to close maritime trade routes should be taken into account. The weakening of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, which also supports Russian forces’ logistics and enforces the blockade in the northern Black Sea, has the potential to be a key factor in the peninsula’s future liberation from occupation and negatively affects Russia’s prestige. Moreover, the relocation of part of the Black Sea Fleet to the Ochamchira region in Abkhazia might require the establishment of necessary logistics infrastructure, including repair facilities for stationed ships, making permanent deployment unlikely in the short term.
[1] Çıkarma gemisi Saratov, filonun sancak gemisi Moskova kruvazörü, kurtarma gemisi Vasily Bekh, Olenegorsky Gornyak isimli çıkarma gemisi, son saldırıda ağır hasar aldığı iddia edilen çıkarma gemisi Minsk ile geliştirilmiş Kilo sınıfı Rostov na Donu denizaltısı ve son olarak ve Filo Karargâhına yapılan saldırılar.
[2] “Russian Submarine Suffered Catastrophic Damage in Ukraine Missile Attack: British Intelligence”, DefenceMirror.com, https://www.defensemirror.com/news/35013, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[3] Ferhan Oral-Şafak Oğuz, “The Security of the Black Sea: The Struggle in the Blacksea and Turkey’s Policy in the Post-Cold War Era”, Karadeniz Araştırmaları, 2021, XVIII/69: 1-16.
[4] “Russian Defense Ministry praises Kalibr sea-launched missiles used against IS targets”, TASS, https://tass.com/defense/842799?ysclid=lnq30mlu65631929394, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[5] Thomas Grove-Jared Malsin, “Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels from Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks”, Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-withdraws-black-sea-fleet-vessels-from-crimea-base-after-ukrainian-attacks-51d6d4f5, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[6] “Bzhania announced the deployment of a permanent base of the Russian Navy in Abkhazia”, İzvestiya, https://iz.ru/1584377/2023-10-05/bzhaniia-soobshchil-o-razmeshchenii-v-abkhazii-punkta-postoiannogo-bazirovaniia-vmf-rf, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[7] Guy Faulconbridge, “Russia plans naval base in Abkhazia, triggering criticism from Georgia”, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-plans-naval-base-black-sea-coast-breakaway-georgian-region-izvestiya-2023-10-05/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[8] “Russia Gains Military Base In Abkhazia”, RadioFreeEuropeRadioLiberty, https://www.rferl.org/a/Russia_Gains_Military_Base_In_Abkhazia/1960545.html, Erişim Tarihi:15 Ekim 2023.
[9] Peter Dickinson, “Putin’s fleet retreats: Ukraine is winning the Battle of the Black Sea”, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-fleet-retreats-ukraine-is-winning-the-battle-of-the-black-sea/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
[10] Veronika Melkozerova, “Ukrainian attacks force Russia to relocate Black Sea fleet”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-attack-crimea-russia-ships-relocate/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2023).
