Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has sparked widespread reactions in Europe and raised significant questions about the future of the continent. His “America First” policy during his previous term created deep cracks in transatlantic relations and led the European Union (EU) to reassess its own security and economic strategies. In this context, Trump’s second term could have a significant impact on Europe, requiring the continent to develop new approaches across various areas, from security and trade to environmental policies and diplomacy.
Trump’s new term is seen as a turning point for the EU, holding both threats and opportunities. Existing issues in Europe, such as weak leadership, slow economic growth, and the growing migrant crisis, have intensified a sense of directionlessness and uncertainty across the continent. Particularly the weak ties between Germany and France have made it difficult for the EU to set common goals. While Trump’s re-election poses serious security and trade threats to Europe, it is also believed that such external pressure could lead to further steps toward greater integration within Europe. Trump’s risk of withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could force Europe to develop common policies on security and defense, potentially accelerating the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy.
This scenario could trigger the changes needed to overcome Europe’s current economic and political stagnation. For example, a potential trade war with the United States under Trump’s presidency could push the EU to develop more common funding mechanisms. The idea of a joint defense budget, supported by Macron and Germany but yet to be implemented, would likely be taken more seriously in the face of security threats posed by Trump. Trump’s efforts to forge bilateral relationships with European countries and the possibility of withdrawing from NATO could jeopardize the EU’s integration process. In this context, Trump’s presidency may present an opportunity for the EU to strengthen in the face of challenges, but it also carries the risk of fragmentation across the continent.
Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has brought significant changes to US-EU relations, spanning a wide range of issues from security and Ukraine aid to trade and NATO. Trump has previously criticized the EU and threatened to disrupt existing relations, which has raised concerns in Europe, particularly regarding support for Ukraine. With Trump’s win, there is speculation that the US may reduce its military aid to Ukraine or shift the burden onto Europe.[1] It is also anticipated that Trump may increase pressure on NATO regarding burden-sharing, demanding that EU countries take on greater responsibility for their own security and defense. Additionally, Trump’s likely pursuit of protectionist policies in foreign trade and potential increases in import tariffs on the EU could create new tensions in transatlantic trade relations. This situation might not only lead to fresh strains but could also accelerate Europe’s efforts to protect its internal market and pursue greater strategic autonomy.[2]
As a result, the U.S. elections held on November 5, 2024, have emerged as a critical turning point that will deeply impact relations between the United States and the European Union. Should Donald Trump regain the presidency, Europe’s security strategies, trade relations, and political balance could be reshaped. Trump’s criticism of NATO and his demand for Europe to increase its defense spending have brought the risk of the U.S. withdrawing from European security into focus. This trend, which began in 2016, has led to an increase in NATO member states meeting the 2% defense spending target, with the number rising to 23 by 2024, thereby increasing Europe’s responsibility for its own security.[3] The possibility of Trump reducing U.S. support for Ukraine may compel Europe to reassess its security position. Additionally, the potential exclusion of the EU from any peace talks between Ukraine and Russia could deepen security concerns across the continent.
Under Trump’s “America First” approach, his promised harsh sanctions against China have the potential to drag the EU into this trade war.[4] While Trump has pledged to increase import tariffs on China, he may expect the EU to adopt a similar stance. On the other hand, his promise to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act was viewed positively in the EU.[5] However, Trump’s protectionist trade policies and his tendency to withdraw from environmental agreements could lead to commercial and environmental mismatches with the EU. Additionally, Trump’s right-wing populist ideology has the potential to empower far-right parties in Europe. His close relationships with right-wing leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, could contribute to the acceleration of far-right movements across Europe. Trump’s close ties with leaders like Orbán, Meloni, and Fico could potentially weaken the EU’s influence in negotiations and provide far-right movements with a greater voice on the political stage.
If Trump returns to the presidency, the EU will have to reposition itself across various areas, from NATO and trade to security and ideological domains. The outcome of the U.S. election will deeply impact not only Europe’s security strategies but also its political climate. This situation underscores the need for the continent to strengthen its own defense policies and develop more resilient strategies against the rise of the far-right. Trade wars, disputes within NATO, and differences in climate policies could constitute the key dimensions of the impact of Trump’s administration on Europe. In this context, it is likely that the EU will accelerate its efforts toward strategic autonomy and take steps to reduce its dependence on U.S. support. Trump’s victory in this election could mark a critical turning point for Europe, offering an opportunity to strengthen its internal unity and position itself as a more powerful actor on the global stage.
[1] Mujtaba Rahman, “Europe should hope for a Trump victory”, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-hope-donald-trump-victory-nato-defense-security-debt/, (Accessed: 06.11.2024).
[2] Ibıd.
[3] Amandine Hess, “Why would a US election win for Trump cause concern in Europe?”, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/05/why-would-a-us-election-win-for-trump-cause-concern-in-europe, (Accessed:06.11.2024).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Joan Villoslada, “What would Donald Trump’s victory mean for the EU?”, Do Better by esade, https://dobetter.esade.edu/en/donald-trump-victory-EU, (Accessed: 06.11.2024).
