As a result of the vote of confidence has been held in the Pakistani Parliament on April 9, 2022, the Imran Khan government was overthrown and aftermath of the elections which has held on April 11, 2022, Shahbaz Sharif was elected as the new Prime Minister of Pakistan. India is one of the countries that closely tracks this development due to hostility between the two countries based upon the very first day they gained their independence. This enmity situation brought the parties to be rivals in the regional power struggle and had been giving direction to the relations they established at the global level.
As already known, India has two threat perceptions in pursuing its foreign policy. The roots of these threats have been seen as a China and Pakistan by New Delhi. This is why the New Delhi administration is a part of the containment policy of the United States of America (USA) through the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” discourse against China which is its main rival in the global power struggle, even so, in the Chinese context, India is a member of the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). New Delhi’s close relationship with the United States and the Western alliance has caused Pakistan to establish an alliance with China, especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. In this regard, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, one of the six economic corridors of the Belt-Road Project, which is crucial to China’s global ambitions, also reflects Islamabad’s position and preferences in the global power struggle.
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which led to Pakistan’s rapprochement with China, also make way for the US invasion of Afghanistan. During this period, the Washington administration has attempted to label Pakistan as a “state that supports terrorism”. The Taliban which had considerable influence by the Islamabad administration was overthrown by the occupation named “Operation Endless Freedom”, which has pushed Pakistan out of the equation in Afghanistan and has offered India significant opportunities in geopolitical and geo-economic terms. Taliban that was overthrown by the occupation named “Operation Endless Freedom” which under a considerable influence of the İslamabad administration, has pushed Pakistan out of the equation in Afghanistan and has offered India significant opportunities in geopolitical and geo-economic terms. In the process, it has been seen by Indian decision-makers as an extremely advantageous position to be aligned with the United States
After 20 years of occupation, the United States realizes that the war in Afghanistan is not sustainable, and acknowledges that it cannot destroy the Taliban, leading to the signing of the Doha Agreement between the United States and the Taliban on 29 February 2020. The agreement was followed by a halt to US operations against the Taliban, which gave a boost to the Taliban’s progress on the ground. Eventually, in August 2021, the second Taliban era has begun in Afghanistan. This occasion was interpreted by many analysts as “Pakistan’s victory.” Islamabad, in effect, was careful to keep the initiative in its own hands on the Afghan issue, the expansion of the Sino-Pakistani Economic Corridor to include Afghanistan was discussed, and it appeared that India was being excluded from conference diplomacy among the countries in the region about Afghanistan-based developments. Thus, during the Han period, Pakistan acted together with China.
India, however, has worked closely with other Western actors due to its problems with China and Pakistan but has also been careful to implement a multi-faceted foreign policy, driven by the tradition of “Non-Aligned” in its foreign policy. Reflecting this orientation, India has purchased S-400 Air Defense Systems from Russia. In fact, Pakistan’s relations with China and the situation in Afghanistan have created a comfortable space for New Delhi the point of conducting multi-dimensional foreign policy. Because the U.S. regarded India as an indispensable actor and decided to exempt India from the sanctions imposed by the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on countries that normally trade weapons with Russia. However, the transformation of Pakistan may put an end to the privileges granted to India in certain respects. Pakistan is signaling that it is going to pursue a multi-faceted policy based on the balance in its foreign policy. This was the first message of Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif.
In his foreign policy messages, Sheriff has emphasized the significance of having good relations with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the European Union countries, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Britain, and Iran, and stated that relations with the United States should be strengthened on the basis of equality. The Sheriff also declared that normalization could occur with India by saying:[1]
“Why would we want our future generations to suffer? Let us resolve the Kashmir issue in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions and the expectations of the Kashmiris.”
As it turns out, in the new era, Pakistan has continued its relations with China; it will be positioned as an actor that gives importance to cooperation with other actors and contributes to regional-global normalization processes. Arguably, this position of Pakistan will bring a number of opportunities and risks to Indian foreign policy.
To begin with the possible risks, one could argue that India’s greatest challenge would be the West’s pressure to lose the balance it established with Russia on its foreign policy.
Despite the occupation of Ukraine, India which is tried not to confront Russia, and which is the West’s main partner in the Indo-Pacific, may not see the privileged position it sees in its decision to purchase S-400 Air Defense Systems in similar matters. Because, now Western states, especially the United States, will not consider India as their only ally in South Asia, but will develop good relations with Pakistan as well. Indeed, there are signs of this.
For example, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that the Washington administration has acknowledged that relations between India and Russia have improved for decades; however, he said that New Delhi will now become Washington’s preferred partner in almost every field. In this context, Blinken called on India to restrain its friendly relations with Russia.[2] This may mean that the US is believing that one way or another, it would attract Pakistan to its side and has decided to increase the pressure on India.
Starting from a similar approach, India may be asked to take more initiative against China in the Indo-Pacific as well. Because, despite all its problems with Beijing, New Delhi emphasizes at every opportunity that QUAD is not a military structure and in fact tries to maintain its multi-dimensional foreign policy understanding.
In terms of opportunities, it can be said that India can carry out processes that will contribute to regional cooperation, stability and prosperity. In this sense, Sharif’s message on the Kashmir Issue is significant. At this point, as a result of the USA encouraging the steps to be taken to isolate China, a process towards the solution of the Kashmir Issue may be experienced. This may open the gate to overcoming the only issue between the two neighbors. Moreover, India can change its status as a country in the security paradigm that perceives a threat from Pakistan.
Another opportunity is that Pakistan, which did not want to share the cake in Afghanistan during the Han period, will adopt a more constructive attitude toward the Afghan Question after Sharif seizes power. This, in turn, may contribute to the strong reaccess of India to market, which invested 3 billion dollars in Afghanistan and realized 1.5 billion dollars in exports[3] during the American occupation period. Moreover, India and Pakistan’s cooperation on the Afghan issue can be interpreted as fundamental formulas that serve the country’s stability, peace and prosperity.
All of these risks and opportunities are interpretations based on U.S.-Chinese competition in the global power struggle. There is a third option, however, which is in keeping with India’s tradition of non-alignment and the desire of both states for multi-faceted diplomacy based on balance.
The option is that the parties exert the will to prevent one another from being used against the other, regardless of the pressures of the major powers. It would be an ideal model for the resolution of the Kashmir Issue to be followed by a process that could be described as “Taj Mahal 2.0”, and even to operate this process to solve the Afghan problem. That would open the door for both states to be positioned as a pole of the multipolar world.
[1] “Pakistan’ın Yeni Başbakanı Şerif’ten ‘Türkiye ile Pakistan Ayrılmaz Bağlara Sahip’ Vurgusu”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/pakistanin-yeni-basbakani-seriften-turkiye-ile-pakistan-ayrilmaz-baglara-sahip-vurgusu/2560973, (Date of Accession: 15.04.2022).
[2] “США предложили Индии отказаться от дружбы с Россией во всех сферах”, VZ, https://vz.ru/news/2022/4/12/1153288.html, (Date of Accession: 15.04.2022).
[3] Vinay Kaura, “India’s Search for A New Role in Afghanistan”, MEI, https://www.mei.edu/publications/indias-search-new-role-afghanistan, (Date of Accession: 13.04.2022).
