Georgia, situated at a crucial intersection of both the Eastern and Western worlds, holds a geostrategic position that is one of the key factors shaping the country’s foreign policy priorities. The 2024 parliamentary elections are regarded as a critical turning point for Georgia’s foreign trade policies, its integration process with the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), its tensions with Russia, and its domestic political stability.
The political structure that emerges from the election results will have a direct impact on how Georgia balances its foreign policy and ensures the sustainability of its economy. Notably, the reorganization of relations with the EU, deepening cooperation with the United States (US), and maintaining trade ties with China are among the critical factors that will define Georgia’s position on the international stage.
Western (EU and US)-Georgia Relations
Georgia’s relations with the EU entered a new phase with the candidate country status obtained in 2023. While the EU demands democratic reforms from Georgia, it particularly emphasizes ensuring transparency and fair competition in electoral processes. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that the strategic goal of his government is to restructure relations with the US and the EU, noting that this process would accelerate with the end of the Russia-Ukraine War.[i] However, the implementation of the reforms requested by the EU will depend on the political structure of the government to be formed after the elections. If the Georgian Dream Party (GDP) continues its rule alone, these reforms may progress more slowly. In the case of the opposition forming a coalition government, it has been expressed that the EU integration process will accelerate and the reforms will be given higher priority.[ii]
On the other hand, Georgia’s NATO membership process also holds critical importance in this context. Although the GDP has stated its intention to deepen cooperation with NATO, it is expected that this process will be put on hold until the end of the war in Ukraine. The West remains cautious, particularly regarding the lack of democracy and external interventions in Georgia, emphasizing the need for internal political stability. At this point, the restructuring of relations with the West after the 2024 elections will be critical for Georgia’s EU and NATO membership aspirations.[iii]
Eastern (Russia and China)-Georgia Relations
Georgia’s relations with the East also necessitate a balanced approach in the country’s foreign policy. The tensions with Russia have persisted since the 2008 war, particularly with Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, which is considered a serious challenge to Georgia’s sovereignty.[iv] Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Lasha Darsalia emphasized that Russia’s effective control over these regions has been confirmed by international law, and he described the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council’s resolution condemning this occupation as an important diplomatic achievement. Russia’s military presence in these regions continues to threaten Georgia’s territorial integrity, and this situation has complicated Georgia’s relations with the West at various stages throughout history.
However, Georgia’s economic relations with China are deepening progressively. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, cooperation between Georgia and China has intensified, particularly in areas such as the protection of intellectual property rights and the exchange of expertise.[v] Agreements between Sakpatenti and the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) are among the significant steps aimed at strengthening economic ties between the two countries. These collaborations are expected to contribute to closing Georgia’s foreign trade deficit and diversifying its exports in the long term. China’s emergence as an important economic partner for Georgia is helping to balance Georgia’s relations with the East.
Domestic Politics: The Possibility of a Coalition Government
The election process in Georgia has led to a deepening of political polarization in the country. Prime Minister Kobakhidze, referring to the pre-election report of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), stated that the only systemic issue in the country is polarization in the political and media spheres. It has been expressed that the GDP aims to overcome this issue if a constitutional majority is achieved. However, polls indicate that the GDP is expected to receive around 36% of the vote, making it difficult for the party to secure a majority in parliament.[vi] This increases the likelihood of the formation of a coalition government in Georgia.
Opposition parties, particularly the “Union” and “For Georgia” parties, are attempting to form a coalition government against the GDP by establishing a united front. According to poll results, these parties are expected to receive around 15% and 10% of the vote, respectively, which could enable them to form a strong coalition government. In the event of a coalition government, Georgia’s integration processes with the EU and NATO could accelerate, and pro-Western initiatives might be implemented on a broader base. However, the lengthy negotiation processes of coalition governments could slow down decision-making processes and potentially delay economic reforms.
The GDP may consider agreeing to a coalition for a period to avoid losing power entirely, as a response to increasing domestic opposition and external pressure from the West. Indeed, during the potential coalition government that may arise from the 2024 parliamentary elections, the party is expected to seek to regain its credibility and reestablish the power it held in 2013. This coalition could further Georgia’s integration with the West and accelerate democratic reforms. It has been projected that, in the event of a coalition government, closer ties with the EU and the acceleration of the NATO membership process would be key objectives. However, the success of the coalition government will depend on how well the partners balance their political priorities.
A Balanced Relationship with the East and West
One of the greatest challenges in Georgia’s foreign policy has been maintaining the process of integration with the West while simultaneously managing its tense relations with Russia and ensuring regional stability. Russia, as an actor that challenges Georgia’s territorial integrity, recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states in 2008 and has maintained effective control over these regions through its military presence. The United Nations Human Rights Council’s resolutions condemning human rights violations by Russia in these areas have provided Georgia with international support in defending its sovereignty. However, Russia’s strong influence and military presence in the region persist. While Georgia seeks to counter this situation by increasing cooperation with the West, it is also compelled to keep diplomatic channels open with Russia to avoid direct conflict and maintain stability.
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has stated that resolving the ongoing conflict with Russia is one of the country’s primary goals, and emphasized that accelerating integration with NATO and the EU is a strategic component of Georgia’s relations with its Western allies. In its rapprochement with the West, Georgia must balance Russia’s economic and military pressures. In this context, Georgia is adopting a multi-directional foreign policy by deepening its trade and economic relations with other major powers, such as China, to mitigate Russia’s influence. Prime Minister Kobakhidze also highlighted that relations with the US and the EU will be resumed in 2025, after the end of the Russia-Ukraine War.
Georgia’s efforts to deepen cooperation with NATO and China are among the key topics highlighted in the ruling GDP’s election program. Additionally, although Prime Minister Kobakhidze has acknowledged that Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is unlikely to change, he has reiterated Georgia’s commitment to reclaiming these territories. Georgia’s relations with the West deteriorated following the adoption of the foreign agents law in the country, but it has been expressed that the government plans to overcome these challenges and strengthen its ties with the West once again.[vii]
Georgia’s cooperation, particularly within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and similar partnerships, is increasing the country’s integration into Eastern markets and strengthening its economic independence from Russia. However, Georgia’s ability to maintain this balance will depend on the political structure following the elections. While a single-party government may be able to make more stable and swift decisions in foreign policy, coalition governments are expected to face challenges in this process.
Possible Effects on Economy and Foreign Trade
Georgia’s economy continues to develop based on a foreign trade-driven model, but it faces structural challenges such as a high trade deficit and dependence on external markets. Although foreign trade volume increased between 2021 and 2024, imports have significantly exceeded exports, leading to a growing trade deficit. In the first nine months of 2024, exports fell to $4.78 billion, while imports reached $11.99 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $7.20 billion.[viii] This indicates that Georgia maintains an economic growth model reliant on imports, and its local production capacity remains insufficient.
In the post-election period, structural reforms in Georgia’s foreign trade policies must be implemented swiftly. The GDP has announced during its election campaign that it aims to accelerate economic reforms and boost local production. In this context, the development of sectors such as agriculture, technology, and innovation is considered a strategic step toward increasing Georgia’s exports and reducing its trade deficit. The ability of a single-party government to make decisions quickly could facilitate the more effective implementation of these reforms.
However, coalition governments may face delays in the reform process due to the misalignment of different parties’ economic priorities. This could increase the fragility of Georgia’s economy and undermine the confidence of international investors. Solving long-term economic problems, such as the trade deficit, requires political stability and decisiveness. In coalition governments, such decisions may be delayed due to the differing economic agendas of coalition partners, which could negatively affect Georgia’s foreign trade.
Possible Scenarios After the Parliamentary Elections
The parliamentary elections in Georgia represent a critical turning point that will shape the country’s internal political structure and its foreign policy directions. The government structure that emerges after the elections will have a direct impact on Georgia’s relations with both the West and the East, its foreign trade policies, and its economy. If the GDP remains in power alone, it is anticipated that the government’s ability to make swift decisions will allow for more stable steps in foreign policy and more decisive implementation of economic reforms. This scenario would contribute to Georgia’s efforts to close its trade deficit by increasing local production and diversifying its exports.
However, in the event of a coalition government, there may be delays in decision-making processes. Achieving harmony between the economic and foreign policy priorities of different parties could take time, and during this period, reforms may be postponed. Nevertheless, a successful coalition government, based on broad consensus, could accelerate the integration process with the EU and NATO and lead to further progress in Georgia’s relations with the West. Democratic reforms will be a priority in the Western integration process, and the coalition government is expected to succeed in this regard.
The GDP may choose to form a coalition government to maintain its hold on power in the face of increasing domestic opposition and external pressure from the West. In such a scenario, the GDP would engage in negotiations with other political parties to avoid losing power. In a potential coalition government, the GDP would seek to regain its former strength and credibility. The coalition could accelerate Georgia’s integration with the West and provide an opportunity to implement democratic reforms. However, the alignment of priorities among the different parties in the coalition will be critical for sustainability. While the coalition could speed up Georgia’s NATO membership process, weak governance or internal conflicts could complicate this process and create imbalances in foreign relations.
In conclusion, Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary elections will be a critical turning point for the country’s foreign policy and economic future. While a single-party government could quickly implement economic reforms, coalition governments may require more negotiation and alignment. Georgia’s integration with the West, the resolution of conflicts with Russia, and the deepening of trade relations with other major powers like China will depend on the steps taken by the government post-election. In this process, structural reforms in Georgia’s foreign trade policies and economic sustainability will be of vital importance.
[i] “Georgian PM highlights Gov’t’s ‘strategic goal’ of ‘rebooting’ relations with US, EU”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41063, (Access Date:15.10.2024).
[ii] Nini Gabritchidze, “October Elections: Odds, Context, Past Trends”, Civil Georgia, https://civil.ge/archives/627440, (Access Date:15.10.2024).
[iii] “Georgian PM: OSCE/ODIHR report ‘fully reflects’ pre-election environment, highlights ‘polarisation’ as ‘only problem’”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41053, (Access Date:15.10.2024).
[iv] “UN Human Rights Council Adopts Resolution on Occupied Regions of Georgia”, Civil Georgia, https://civil.ge/archives/628448, (Access Date: 15.10.2024).
[v] “Georgian, Chinese intellectual property bodies discuss cooperation”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41069, (Access Date: 15.10.2024).
[vi] “Current Election Trend for Georgia”, PolitPro, https://politpro.eu/en/georgia, (Access Date: 15.10.2024).
[vii] “Gruziya Nazvala Prioritetami Mir s Rossiyey i Partnerstvo s NATO”, Obzor, https://obzor.lt/news/n106798.html, (Access Date: 15.10.2024).
[viii] External Merchandise Trade of Georgia: January-September 2024 (Express Data), National Statistics Office of Georgia, https://www.geostat.ge/media/66113/External-Merchandise-Trade-of-Georgia-in-January-September-2024.pdf, (Access Date: 15.10.2024).
