The upcoming parliamentary elections have increased the importance of Georgia’s efforts to balance between the West and Russia. Georgia has maintained its geopolitical importance as a transit route between the East and the West and has been a key country in terms of energy corridors and trade routes. The Georgian Dream Party’s (GRP) policy of balance aimed at both improving relations with the West and avoiding conflicts with Russia. However, President Salome Zurabishvili’s radical pro-Western stance contradicts this policy of balance and has created tension that could affect the balance in the elections.
Georgia’s experience of the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 was a concrete example of the difficulties that radical pro-Western policies can bring to the country. The harsh pro-Western stance of then President Mikhail Saakashvili drew Georgia into a direct conflict with Russia, resulting in the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This experience showed that Georgia needed to adopt a more cautious and balanced approach to foreign policy and formed the basis of the balance policy pursued by the GRP.
In May 2024, the “Foreign Agent Law” passed by the government was dubbed the “Russian Law” and this was coupled with the approval of an anti-LGBT “defense of family values” law in Georgia. Following these developments, the US imposed visa and financial sanctions on hundreds of Georgian officials, froze budget aid and canceled the “Valued Partner” exercise with the Georgian Army. Preparations are underway to impose financial sanctions against Ivanishvili and his entourage. Foreign media emphasized that this process seriously damaged Georgia’s relations with the West.[i]
Recent developments and the GRP’s policies towards the election process have shown that maintaining a policy of balance in Georgia’s foreign policy orientation is a sensitive issue. Especially after the visit of Michael Roth, the Chairman of the German Foreign Affairs Committee, to Georgia, Kobakhidze criticized the visit and expressed his concerns about Western interference in Georgia’s domestic politics, which demonstrated the GRP’s sensitivity to preserving Georgia’s independence and resilience against foreign interference.[ii] The GRP’s opposition to such interference was an indication of Georgia’s determination to establish an independent foreign policy and maintain its domestic political stability.
A victory for the GRP in the Georgian elections would ensure the continuation of the country’s foreign policy strategy of balance. In this case, Georgia could continue its integration process with the West and deepen its relations with NATO and the EU, while avoiding direct confrontation with Russia. In such a scenario, Georgia could accelerate its economic development and play a more effective role in maintaining regional stability. The GRP’s balanced approach will enable Georgia to act as an independent actor in the international arena and preserve its sovereignty.
However, the strengthening of the opposition and President Zurabishvili’s radical pro-Western policies could change Georgia’s foreign policy balance. Salome Zurabishvili invited the Strong Georgia coalition led by the Lelo party and former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia’s For Georgia party to unite ahead of the general elections on October 26. Zurabishvili called the two groups for talks in his office in Tbilisi, emphasizing the urgent need for negotiations to begin and stating that forming a new bloc could attract uncertain voters. The President emphasized that this unification is important for Georgia’s progress on the European path. Mamuka Khazaradze, the leader of the Gakharia and Lelo party, also expressed a positive attitude towards the union.[iii] However, Mamuka Mdinaradze, an official of the GRP, claimed that the merger was influenced by external forces and that past disagreements could negatively affect voter support.[iv]
In response to President Salome Zurabishvili’s approach, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze argued that Zurabishvili intended to sabotage the parliamentary elections and therefore emphasized that his statements were invalid. Zurabishvili’s veto of Zurabishvili’s proposal to give the President the power to choose the chairman and members of the Central Election Commission was seen as a step to prevent the elections. Parliament overcame this veto and adopted the original bill with 78 votes. This increased tensions between the government and the President.[v]
On the other hand, President Salome Zurabishvili emphasized that the elections on October 26, 2024 will be “the day to save the future of the country” and stated that these elections are of existential importance and will determine the fate of the country. She denied statements by the leaders of the ruling GRP that voters would have to choose between peace and war. Zurabishvili stated that the elections are in fact equivalent to a referendum on “Europe or Russia” and emphasized that the Georgian people must choose between fundamental concepts such as progress and the past, freedom and slavery, democracy and dictatorship. He also conducted a strong public propaganda campaign, emphasizing opposites such as “Christian tolerance or Russian violence” and “independence or occupation”.[vi] These statements were part of Zurabishvili’s efforts to mobilize public opinion against the GRP, emphasizing that the results of the elections were not only a political choice but also a critical turning point for the future of the country.
In addition, Salome Zurabishvili, who was elected to the presidency in 2018 with the support of the GRP, has indicated that she may run for a second term in order to maintain her pro-Western stance. In an interview with Le Figaro newspaper, she stated that “I am ready to take on more responsibility to return Georgia to the European path” and reminded that her term will end in the fall of 2024. According to the new constitutional amendments, the future President will be re-elected for a 5-year term by a 300-member electoral college after elections on October 26.[vii]
The acceleration of Georgia’s integration with NATO and the EU could increase Western influence over Georgia, but it could also bring Russian pressure on Georgia and regional tensions. Georgia may face the risk of a similar crisis following the 2008 war, which could weaken the country’s geopolitical position and internal stability. In this context, Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili emphasized that Georgia seeks “partners, not protectors” in its relations with the United States and stressed the importance of stopping “false” accusations against Georgia in order to rebuild relations between the two countries after the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on two senior Georgian officials for human rights violations. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also criticized the sanctions, calling them an “extreme insult” to Georgia and stating that they contradict the US claims of strategic partnership.[viii] All these developments increase the tension in Georgia’s relations with the US, and the upcoming parliamentary elections have the potential to affect the future of these relations.
China’s role and strategic partnership in Georgia has emerged as an area where the country can further develop its economic and trade relations if the GRP is successful in the elections. Georgia is an important transit point in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and this location has increased Chinese interest in infrastructure and investment projects in Georgia. In particular, Azerbaijan’s application for BRICS+ membership raises the possibility of Georgia joining this platform, providing opportunities for the country to diversify its foreign policy options and strengthen its strategic partnerships with China.
At this point, Georgia’s geopolitical position should be emphasized, as being an important transit route on the east-west axis has revealed how critical the balance policy pursued by the country is. As a bridge between Asia and Europe, at the center of energy corridors, trade routes and transportation lines, Georgia can strengthen its strategic position with a balanced foreign policy. The balanced foreign policy pursued by the GRP enables Georgia to maintain its integration with the West while building pragmatic and constructive relations with great powers such as Russia and China. In this way, Georgia can take steps to preserve its regional stability while advancing its integration with the West, avoiding the backlash from Russia and enhancing cooperation with China.
A policy of balance allows Georgia to maintain its relations with the West and the EU integration process, while at the same time building constructive and peaceful relations with Russia and China. This approach will contribute to Georgia’s stable economic and political development, as well as to regional security and stability. Georgia’s foreign policy orientation will shape not only the country’s domestic political dynamics, but also the balance of power in the Caucasus and the competition between global powers in the region.
Georgia’s future direction and role in the international system will be a reflection of the political choices that will emerge as a result of the elections. The continuation of the GRP’s policy of balance will allow Georgia to move forward in the process of integration with the West while maintaining regional stability through a balanced relationship with Russia and China. On the other hand, the strengthening of Zurabishvili’s radical pro-Western rhetoric may shift Georgia more clearly towards the Western axis. This has the potential to draw Russia’s ire and jeopardize the country’s stability in the region. Georgia’s strengthening of its strategic ties with China and its consideration of the possibility of joining multilateral organizations such as BRICS+, reveal its potential to diversify its future foreign policy options and strengthen itself as an independent actor in the international arena. Thus, it is seen that Georgia’s foreign policy will be shaped as a factor that will affect not only regional but also global power balances.
[i] Georgi Pagava, “Den Posle Vyborov”, Novaya Gazeta, https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2024/09/23/den-posle-vyborov, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[ii] “Georgian PM claims German lawmaker’s visit ‘gift’ for ruling party’s electoral positions”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/40627, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[iii] “Georgian President urges Strong Georgia coalition, For Georgia party to form election alliance”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/40622, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[iv] “Georgian ruling party claims ‘foreign interference’, ‘violations’ by ‘radical’ opposition ahead of elections”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/40687, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[v] “Georgian PM: President Zourabichvili’s ‘sole purpose’ is to sabotage elections, ‘her statements are irrelevant’”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/38488, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[vi] “Prezident Zurabishvili Naznachila Vybory na 26 Oktyabrya i Podcherknula ikh “ekzistentsialnoye” Znacheniye”, Civil Georgia, https://civil.ge/ru/archives/621778, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[vii] “Prezident Gruzii Zayavila, Chto Gotova Ballotirovatsya na Vtoroy Srok”, Radio Mir, https://radiomir.by/news/politika/prezident-gruzii-zayavila-chto-gotova-ballotirovatsya-na-vtoroj-srok, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
[viii] “Parliament Speaker says Gov’t seeking ‘partners, not guardians’ in relations with US”, Agenda.Ge, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/40667, (Access Date: 23.09.2024).
