Southeast Asia is one of the most important geographies where the global power struggle is intensified. The rivalry between the United States of America (USA) and China creates geopolitical conditions in which regional states are forced to choose between the two. The neutrality, balancing and risk-aversion strategies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states allow them to define their own positions without joining any blocks.
Indeed, these countries are in danger of losing their centralist structure, which is their most prominent principle. Facing this danger, ASEAN countries have become increasingly interested in platforms such as BRICS, which share the vision of a multipolar world. This interest can be seen in the increasing number of applicants for membership in the platform. For example, ahead of the BRICS Leaders’ Summit in 2023, 22 countries had expressed their intention to join BRICS.[i] South and Southeast Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia are among those expressing interest in membership.
The expansion of BRICS into Southeast Asia could also create fractures in regional and global geopolitical balances. The group’s members already account for 1 in 5 of the world economy. The inclusion of Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia in the G20 could contribute to a shift in the weight of the world economy to the east. Indeed, Southeast Asian countries also have rapidly growing economies and this region offers an important market and investment opportunities for BRICS countries. BRICS investments and economic cooperation in this region can contribute to the growth of local economies and infrastructure development. Moreover, this expansion may also affect the political dynamics and foreign policy orientations of the countries in the region. By strengthening their relations with the BRICS countries, regional states can seize the opportunity to advance their regional security and strategic interests.
The accession of ASEAN’s leading states Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand to the BRICS could accelerate the rise of the Asia-Pacific and disrupt the balance of power in the Western-centered international system. Approximately 1 in 5 of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca. Therefore, the expansion of BRICS into the region and closer trade links could reshape regional and global trade networks and strengthen the Asian market.
Malaysia and Indonesia are considered as important economic powerhouses in Southeast Asia. As the trade wars of the US against China continue to escalate, membership of ASEAN powers in BRICS could lead to further pressure on the region. ASEAN powers that want to set the stage for competition may in fact become a part of the global power struggle by becoming a member of BRICS. Therefore, this expansion may bring new opportunities and challenges for ASEAN’s economic and political strategies.
ASEAN countries, which are seeking a more balanced power structure in the international arena, can aim to have a greater voice in global politics by forging strategic alliances with blocs such as the BRICS. These multilateral collaborations can contribute significantly to regional security, economic growth and states’ visions of a peaceful world.
One of the regional states interested in BRICS is Thailand. The country has been the scene of US-China rivalry for the last 15 years. In 2014, after Prayut Chan-oça came to power in a coup d’état, Thailand-US relations deteriorated. Although these relations have improved in recent years, the country’s general tendency is to balance its foreign policy. At this point, membership to BRICS may provide Thailand with more flexibility and autonomy in its foreign policy.
Located in the center of the Indochina Peninsula, Thailand hosts strategic transportation networks as it connects the Asian Continent to Southeast Asia. China has a considerable share in infrastructure development projects in the country. Other major investors competing with China are India and Japan. Therefore, the country is in a position where Western investors find it difficult to establish economic activity. Besides, Thailand’s cooperation with BRICS countries in investment and infrastructure projects could accelerate the country’s economic development. Financial and technical support from BRICS could be beneficial for Thailand’s infrastructure projects and other areas of development.
To conclude, the role and importance of BRICS in the Southeast Asian region is growing. This may also stem from the BRICS countries of India, China and Russia’s increasing weight in Asia-Pacific politics in recent years. China and India, in particular, are the two largest economies in the region, and with their rapid economic growth and large market capacities, they play a leading role in shaping trade in Southeast Asia. One of the main objectives of BRICS is to promote economic integration among its members. In this sense, India and China are among the main countries investing the most in infrastructure projects in the region and promoting regional economic integration. If BRICS continues to expand into Southeast Asia, this could deepen geopolitical rivalries and security challenges in the region.
[i] “Güney Afrika: BRICS üyeliği için 22 ülke başvurdu”, Trt Haber, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/guney-afrika-brics-uyeligi-icin-22-ulke-basvurdu-783102.html, (Access Date: 05.08.2024).
