The South Korean parliamentary elections held on April 10, 2024 were also considered as a referendum on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s first two years in office.[1] With a relatively high participation rate of 67 percent, voters defeated Yoon’s conservative People’s Power Party, reducing its share of the 300-seat National Assembly from 114 to 108 seats. The opposition Democratic Party maintained its majority in the National Assembly, winning 175 seats.
Despite the Yoon government’s close ties with Washington, doubts remain about the exact foreign policy approach it will pursue. Seoul is also seeking to increase its political contacts with Beijing. In this regard, South Korea is planning to host a China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit in late May.
In recent years, the Yoon Government has emphasized security cooperation with the US and Japan in order to counter the growing “North Korean threat”. Due to this “threat”, Yoon’s foreign and national security policy is expected to continue to increase partnership with the US and Japan. Still, the opposition’s gains could lead to a change in Yoon’s foreign policy trajectory. In this regard, South Korea’s attempts at convergence with Japan may also fail due to opposition pressure.
The Yoon government, which seeks to resolve historical disputes with Tokyo in order to achieve greater security cooperation, may face opposition pressure to advance this policy. In this context, the opposition could demand that Yoon seek greater concessions from Tokyo to resolve historical grievances. This could disrupt the process of trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea. In 2023, the implementation of the decisions announced at the Camp David tripartite summit could also be at risk.
Opposition pressure could also seriously affect the Yoon government’s relations with Pyongyang. In this sense, maintaining inter-Korean peace and the traditional policy of unification may become very difficult. The Yoon government’s revised unification plan, which includes the principles of freedom and democracy between two Koreas, is likely to face criticism from the opposition.
During its two years in office, the Yoon Government faced significant ambiguities, challenges and pressures in both domestic and foreign policy. The future of the government may therefore not be significantly different from its first two years in office. The election results are unlikely to change the general course of politics in South Korea.
It remains to be seen whether the South Korean government will be able to maintain its proactive foreign policy agenda on issues such as support for Ukraine, the South China Sea and North Korea. This policy could mean making a choice in global geopolitics while boosting the country’s national image. Seoul recently hosted the third Democracy Summit in March. In May, it is expected to host the Artificial Intelligence Security Summit and the China-Japan-Korea trilateral Summit. In addition, South Korea’s increased cooperation with NATO could lead to an acceleration of regional polarization.
While the problems with North Korea and Japan have caused the government to face great pressure in domestic politics, it can be expected to act more freely in global politics, especially in relations with the US and China. In this context, South Korea’s strategies towards the Indo-Pacific are likely to continue to strengthen. This is because the Indo-Pacific strategy, which was developed for the first time in the country’s history on December 28, 2022, may be taken forward.[2]
Keeping the region free and open is closely linked to South Korea’s national security. Hence, it will be important to increase cooperation and solidarity with allied powers, especially ASEAN countries. As a matter of fact, most of Seoul’s trade (about 3 out of 4) is with countries in the region. Due to the growing importance of the region, South Korea is expected to develop new strategies for its immediate neighborhood. The developments threatening the region will also be the Yoon Government’s major foreign policy challenges.
South Korea has set the goal of becoming a “Global Pivot Country” and has indicated its intention to take more responsibility in the region. In this scope, it says it is ready to cooperate with all nations of the world. South Korea seeks balance between China, its largest trading partner, and the United States, its main military ally. This strategy could be one of the most important challenges for the Yoon Government in the coming period.
[1] “South Korean President Yoon faces foreign policy challenges after the National Assembly election”, The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/south-korean-president-yoon-faces-foreign-policy-challenges-after-the-national-assembly-election-227650, (Date of Access:20.04.2024).
[2] “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region”, The Government of Republic of Korea, https://www.mofa.go.kr/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=20221228060752073.pdf&rs=/viewer/result/202212, (Date of Access: 20.04.2024).
