South Korea and Japan are facing serious demographic challenges, characterised by declining birth rates and a rapidly aging population. These challenges not only threaten the sustainability of social welfare systems, but also create long-term economic risks. The data for 2024, for example, reveal opposite trends between the two countries and provide insight into how different measures are affecting demographic trends in East Asia.
South Korea’s demographic crisis has been dominated by one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, which has been falling for a few years. However, recent data point to a gentle recovery. In 2024, South Korea saw a slight increase in the birth rate, with the fertility rate rising to 0.75 from 0.72 in 2023. This increase is due to a combination of factors, including increased marriage, especially among those in their early 30s, and changing social values related to marriage and childbirth.[1]
South Korean Government has been proactive in responding to the demographic crisis. Under the administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol, various steps have been taken to promote marriage and fertility. These include financial support for families, improvements in work-family balance, childcare support and housing subsidies. These initiatives have likely contributed to the rise in marriages, which showed the highest increase in recent decades, with an increase of around 15 % in 2024. This change reflects a broader shift in societal values, with more people in South Korea, particularly in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak, viewing marriage and childbirth more optimistically.
However, despite these developments, South Korea’s population continues to decline in general. In 2024, the number of deaths was 120.000 more than the number of births, and the country’s population, which reached 51.83 million in 2020, is expected to decline significantly by 2072. This suggests that while short-term measures may provide temporary relief, long-term sustainability will demand deeper structural changes.[2]
Japan’s demographic situation is even worse. It is experiencing a continuous decline in both births and marriages. Japan’s birth rate fell to a record low of 720.988 in 2024, the ninth consecutive year of decline. Japan’s total fertility rate for 2023 was 1.20, well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population.[3]
This decline is compounded by a fast ageing population; about 30 % of Japanese are aged 65 and over. Unlike South Korea, Japan’s birth rate has not shown significant signs of improvement despite the implementation of various government programmes aimed at increasing fertility. Experts point to several factors, including the high cost of living, particularly housing, and the pressure of a competitive business environment that discourages family building.[4]
Although the Japanese Government has taken measures to support families, such as parental leave policies, these have not been sufficient to overturn the demographic trend. The country’s low fertility rate and increasing percentage of elderly population is leading to an unavoidable labour shortage that could hamper economic growth in the future.
In 2024, Japan experienced more deaths than births, recording 1.62 million deaths for just over 720.000 births, emphasising the extent of the demographic crisis.
In conclusion, the demographic crises facing South Korea and Japan are characteristic of broader trends in East Asia, where fertility rates have fallen significantly in recent decades. While both countries have taken various measures to deal with declining birth rates, the results have been mixed and largely unanticipated. South Korea’s slight recovery may indicate that targeted policies, particularly those addressing the financial and social challenges of child-rearing, have the potential to achieve some success. Japan, on the other hand, remains in a demographic decline that is unlikely to be reversed without more fundamental policy changes. The challenges facing these countries are complex and multiple, requiring not only governmental but also broader social change to ensure a stable and sustainable future.
[1] “South Korea birth rate rises for first time in 9 years”, China Daily,http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202502/28/WS67c11118a310c240449d7c6d.html, (Date Accessed: 28.02.2025).
[2] Ibid.
[3] “Japan’s births fell to record low in 2024”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-new-births-fall-9-straight-years-record-low-2024-2025-02-27/, (Date Accessed:: 28.02.2025).
[4] “Japan’s Deepening Population Crisis Breaks 125-Year Record”, NewsWeek, https://www.newsweek.com/japan-2024-births-falls-125-year-low-population-crisis-2037614, (Date Accessed: 28.02.2025).
