On 10 July 2024, senior defense officials from South Korea and Japan held their first meeting in Tokyo after 9 years to improve bilateral relations and deter threats from North Korea. For the first time since August 2015, the sides held a meeting at the level of undersecretary of the defense ministry. The last previous meeting took place in 2018 to prevent maritime jurisdiction disputes involving a Japanese patrol aircraft.[1]
Concurrently with the last meeting in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in Washington. During the meeting, the two leaders agreed that North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia are a serious threat and that the security challenges facing Asia and Europe are increasingly indivisible.[2]
Thus, Japan and South Korea reaffirmed their agreement to strengthen their cooperation in the Asia-Pacific with the United States of America (USA) and other European partners. It should be recalled that the two countries leaders also attended the NATO summits in 2022 and 2023. Indeed, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand have started to be called “Indo-Pacific Partners (IP4)” of the alliance as a result of their active participation in NATO summits for the last 3 years.
It can be said that there is coordination in the Asia-Pacific strategies of the decision-makers in the US (White House, Pentagon, and Central Intelligence Agency-CIA). In other words, the coming together and cooperation of regional allies such as South Korea and Japan facing current and potential security threats in the Asia-Pacific is considered vital for US national security.
It is expected that the presidential elections that will be held in the US at the end of the year will not cause a change in the American grand strategy. Trump’s policy advisors have already sent a message to officials in Seoul and Tokyo emphasizing that Trump will promote relations between Japan and South Korea if he takes office.[3] Thus, Trump and his team are reassuring the officials in Japan and South Korea that they will continue and further advance the Biden-era efforts.
The cooperation of South Korea and Japan, which have historical disagreements, towards common security threats means that they have put aside their differences by shifting more towards the Western axis. South Korea and Japan have begun to take a stand against powers marginalized by the Western world, such as Russia, North Korea, and China, and thereby have adapted to the West’s New Cold War game.
This can be interpreted as an expansion of the New Cold War between Europe and Russia to the Asia-Pacific. Asia-Pacific states are forced to choose between the Western World and Russia, North Korea, and China. In this respect, it can be said that South Korea and Japan have joined the race of polarisation and tension leading to a potential Third World War and have already made their choice in favor of the West.
The Russian-North Korean rapprochement cannot be ignored in the spread of this polarisation trend to the Asia-Pacific. While Russia was looking for partners who could directly support it militarily in its war in Ukraine, it failed to find the support it was looking for from China. It is because China wants Russia to end its war in Ukraine as soon as possible, and for this reason, it is engaged in activities such as presenting peace plans and conducting shuttle diplomacy. Having failed to get the support it expected from China, Russia managed to establish a major military partnership with North Korea while the war in Ukraine was still going on.
The North Korea-Russia military partnership has subsequently pushed South Korea to strengthen its partnerships with other Western allies. Japan, positioned opposite Russia, stands out as the most suitable actor with which South Korea can establish a partnership. Both South Korea’s and Japan’s national security interests and threat perceptions have started to overlap. For instance, the security of Asia and Europe have begun to be identified with each other and treated as a whole. The idea that the world’s security should be considered as a whole can be explained by Russia’s “principle of indivisible security”. However, this principle has not yet been understood by the Western World. Therefore, Russia plays its cards in the same way as the West and prefers polarisation.
To conclude, South Korea has focused on security cooperation with the US and Japan to eliminate the “North Korean threat” that has increased in recent years. Due to this “threat”, it is expected that South Korea’s foreign and national security policy will continue to increase its partnership with the US and Japan. These developments lead to the end of the inter-Korean policy of peace and traditional unification. Balancing between global powers will be one of the most important challenges for South Korea in the coming period.
[1] “S. Korea, Japan hold 1st meeting of senior defense officials in 9 years”, Yonhap News, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240710009900315?section=national/defense, (Date of Access: 01.07.2024).
[2] “Japan, South Korea leaders agree North Korea-Russia ties as serious threat”, Kyodo News, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/07/c0fb21b0aa86-update1-japan-s-korea-leaders-meet-to-discuss-n-korea.html, (Date of Access: 01.07.2024).
[3] “Exclusive: Trump will encourage Japan, South Korea ties, allies tell foreign officials”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-will-encourage-japan-south-korea-ties-allies-tell-foreign-officials-2024-06-28/, (Date of Access: 01.07.2024).
